scholarly journals Forecast of China’s economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: a MIDAS regression analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samet Gunay ◽  
Gökberk Can ◽  
Murat Ocak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Mixed Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC) on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of China. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses are conducted through alternative methods such as ordinary least squares, Markov regime switching (MRS) and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. The flexibility of MIDAS regression enables us to use different variables with quarterly (GDP), monthly (export sales and foreign-exchange reserves) and daily frequencies (foreign exchange rates and Brent oil price). Findings The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable negative effect on China’s GDP growth, while the dummy variables used for the GFC are found to be insignificant. Further, the forecast accuracy test statistics exhibited a superior performance from MIDAS regression compared to the alternative models, such as MRS regression analysis. According to the forecast results, the authors expect a recovery in China’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2020. Originality/value This is one of the earliest studies to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese economy, and to compare the impact of COVID-19 with the GFC. The authors provide further evidence regarding the performance of MIDAS regression analysis vs alternative methods. Findings obtained shed light on policymakers, corporations and households to update their consumption, saving and investment decisions in the chaotic environment of this pandemic.

scholarly journals The human capital–economic growth nexus in SSA countries: what can strengthen the relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1143-1159
Author(s):  
Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa ◽  
Ronney Ncwadi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ssa Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth for a selected sample of nine SSA countries between 1980 and 2014 using a panel econometric approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a log-linearized endogenous using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least squares (POLS) applied to our panel data time series.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows an insignificant effect of human capital on economic growth for our selected sample. These findings remain unchanged even after adding interactive terms to human capital, which are representatives of government spending as well as foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, the authors establish a positive and significant effect of the interactive term between urbanization and human capital on economic growth.Practical implicationsThe results emphasize the need for African policymakers to develop urbanized, “smart”, technologically driven cities within the SSA region as a platform toward strengthening the impact of human capital-economic growth relationship.Originality/valueThis study becomes the first in the literature to validate the human capital–urbanization–growth relationship for African countries.

Does social media matter for post typology? Impact of post content on Facebook and Instagram metrics

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 458-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Limongi França Coelho ◽  
Denise Santos de Oliveira ◽  
Marcos Inácio Severo de Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
User Preference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Body Design ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of post type (advertising, fan, events, information, and promotion) on two interaction metrics: likes and comments. The measuring involved two popular social media, Facebook and Instagram, and in business profiles of five different segments (food, hairdressing, ladies’ footwear, body design, fashion gym wear). Design/methodology/approach – The method used was multiple regression analysis with an estimator of the ordinary least squares for 1,849 posts from five different companies posted on Facebook (680 posts) and Instagram (1,169 Instagram) over an eight-month posting period. Regression analysis was used to identify the relationship between the dependent variables (likes and comments), and the independent variables (post typology, segments, week period, month, characters and hashtag). Findings – It was seen that the post types events and promotion led to a greater involvement of followers in Instagram, in particular. In Facebook, the events post type was only significant in the like’s interaction. Another finding of the research is the relevance of the food and body design segment which was significant in both virtual social media. This indicates a user preference involving their day-to-day lives, in this case, having a tattoo done or seeing a photo of a dessert. Originality/value – With the findings of this study, academics and social media managers can improve the return indicators of interactions in posts and broaden the discussion on the types of post and interaction in different virtual social media.

scholarly journals Impact of the government size on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Roberta Bajrami ◽  
Adelina Gashi ◽  
Kosovare Ukshini ◽  
Donat Rexha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Keynesian theory states that economic growth is positively affected by government spending, while Classical theory states that economic growth is negatively affected by government spending, as is stated by neoclassical public choice theorists (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). Based on these theories, many authors have carried out research on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth by analyzing various empirical cases. Bergh and Karlsson (2010) with the findings from his paper confirmed that the countries with the highest government size have an elevated growth in the globalization index of KOF and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the government size impact on the growth of the economy in the Western Balkan in the time period 2000–2017 according to Fraser Institute’s data, incorporating the following econometric models: fixed and random effects, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), and Hausman-Taylor IV. With these models, this paper analyzes a government size and its components: government enterprises and investment, government consumption, transfers, and subsidies. The results illustrate a relationship between the size of the government and the growth of the economy in the Western Balkans that is positive. 1% increase in government size affects 0.29% gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita. According to the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable, 1% growth of government consumption is affected by 0.69% the decline in GDP per capita. The growth rate of transfers and subsidies affects 0.17% of GDP growth per capita and 1% of government enterprises and investment affects 0.54% GDP growth per capita.

scholarly journals Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth: The Case of the Republic of Srpska

ECONOMICS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-108
Author(s):  
Goran Popović ◽  
Ognjen Erić ◽  
Srđa Popović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of trade liberalisation on the economic growth of the Republic of Srpska (RS). The aim of the research is to prove the hypothesis that trade liberalisation and export orientation positively impact on GDP growth. RS has characteristically small and open economies. The degree and character of the connections between the observed variables was determined by means of regression analysis. Regression analysis indicates that there is a positive connection between the total trade and GDP growth. Further, there is a marked positive correlation between export and GDP, that is, export growth contributes to GDP growth. Foreign trade deficit stands in a negative correlation with GDP. Lastly, regression analysis points to the connection between the Republic of Srpska economic growth and openness of its economy. However, uncontrolled opening and exposure to foreign competitiveness can also bring about problems which in certain circumstances lead to long-term macroeconomic instability.

Stock returns and the US dollar: the importance of monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1046-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher Hughen ◽  
Scott Beyer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return data to determine the relation between the dollar’s value and stock prices as it relates to monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine US stock returns over a 40-year period, which is classified according to monetary policy and dollar trend. To better understand the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the authors estimate a model of stock returns using the three Fama-French factors and a momentum factor. Then the authors explore the underlying economic fundamentals that drive the sharp difference in annual returns between periods when the dollar is in an uptrend trend with loose monetary policy and periods when the dollar is in a downtrend with tight monetary policy. Findings – Over the last 40 years, US stock returns were 2.5 times higher when the dollar was trending up vs down. The factor model of returns shows that equity returns are positively associated with periods when the dollar appreciated. Returns were particularly high when the dollar was in an uptrend during accommodative monetary policy. During these periods, stocks in the consumer goods and services industries provided relatively high returns. This occurred with strong economic growth due to consumer spending. Stocks exhibited the lowest returns when the dollar was depreciating and the Federal Reserve was tightening. Originality/value – The key contribution of the research is that currency trends should be analyzed in the light of monetary policy. During periods of accommodative monetary policy and dollar appreciation, the US stock market provided average returns of 18.7 percent compared to −3.29 percent during a period of restrictive monetary policy and dollar depreciation. This result is driven by stronger economic growth, which is composed of consumer spending that more than offsets the dollar’s impact on net exports.

Social organization and its impact on economic growth in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-143
Author(s):  
Yidan Chen ◽  
Lanying Sun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Organization ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of social organization in promoting Chinese economic growth. It adopts empirical research to test the correlated hypotheses, and tries to put forward some policy suggestions. Design/methodology/approach Social organizations are measured by four indicators in this paper. It proposes five hypotheses about the impact of social organization on economic growth and builds an economic growth model including social organization. The ordinary least squares and stepwise regression methods are conducted to estimate the economic growth model with the data from 1999 to 2015. Findings Through the empirical analysis, it finds that the added value of social organization, human capital, investment and government budget expenditure affect economic growth significantly. The number of social organization at the end of each year has a positive significant effect on entrepreneurship, while the added value and growth rate of it have a negative effect on it. The numbers of social organization and full-time employee have significant effect on number to workers in the labor force. Only the number of social organization has positive significant effect on public education. Originality/value This paper conducts an empirical study on the impact of social organization on economic growth in China and fills a gap of the role of social organization on the economy in developing countries. The results provide referenced information for public policy-making.

A hedonic assessment of the relative importance of structural, locational and neighbourhood factors on advertised rents in Malta

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Micallef ◽  
Reuben Ellul ◽  
Nathaniel Debono
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Characteristics Method ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The private rental market in Malta has expanded significantly in recent years, but as at 2020, no official rent index is yet published. This paper aims to construct such an index and explores the relative importance of structural, locational and neighbourhood factors to advertised rents. Design/methodology/approach The authors compile hedonic indices for advertised rents in Malta collected from publicly available sources using webscraping techniques. The database comprises more than 25,000 listings with information on various property attributes. Hedonic regressions are estimated using ordinary least squares and rent indices are computed using three alternative methods: the time dummy method, the rolling time dummy method and the average characteristics method. For the latter, indices are computed using the Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher methods. Findings The results from the hedonic indices indicate that the annual growth rate in advertised rents was slowing down during 2019, albeit still remaining relatively high, while in 2020, advertised rents contracted sharply, amplified by the effects of COVID-19. The findings also reveal that advertised rental prices are significantly influenced by various structural, locational and neighbourhood factors. Originality/value This paper introduces the first rent index in Malta that will be used to monitor developments in the rental segment of the housing market and for financial stability purposes given the share of buy-to-let properties. It also provides various elasticities on the impact of property attributes on advertised rents in Malta. Finally, the study contributes to the literature on the effect of foreign-born residents on advertised rents.

Political instability and its impact on economic growth: the case of Jordan

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 366-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malak Samih Abu Murad ◽  
Nooh Alshyab
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Least Squares Approach

Purpose Political instability may have far-reaching implications for economic performance. This paper aims to analyze the impact of political instability on economic growth by focusing on the case of Jordan, a small country located in the Middle East, which represents a highly political instable region. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is performed by regressing different indicators for internal and external political instability on economic growth for the period from 1980 to 2015 using the fully modified ordinary least squares approach. Findings The results point at a significant impact of political instability on the economic growth of the country in all the specifications considered; in particular, the analysis reveals a positive impact of external political instability indexed by border countries’ political instability and a negative impact of internal political instability, as proxied by the number of crimes and cabinet changes. Further, regarding the effect of the level of freedom, the authors find evidence for the so-called conflict perspective. Originality/value This paper is original and relevant for two main reasons. First, it adds to the debate on the effects of political instability on economic growth, and hereby, disentangles the effects of internal and external political instability. Second, it makes an important contribution by focusing on the case of Jordan, which has received little attention in the literature on political instability so far, even though political instability is a constant threat to the country.

How important is mobile telephony for economic growth? Evidence from MENA countries

Info ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 58-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saibal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Mobile Telephony ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The explosion of mobile telephony in recent times has led to the emergence of a significant volume of literature. One area that has been relatively under-researched has been the role of mobile telephony in impacting economic growth and the relevance of financial inclusion in this respect. Using data on MENA countries during 2001-2012, this paper aims to examine this issue within an empirical framework. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on longitudinal data for the period 2001-2012 and examines the interrelationships among per capita income, financial inclusion and mobile telephony. To take on board this interrelationship, the authors use a simultaneous equation model. In contrast to the ordinary least squares, 3SLS exploits the information that the disturbance terms in the two structural terms are contemporaneously correlated, thereby producing consistent estimates. Findings The analysis suggests a significant relationship among these variables. In particular, a 1 per cent increase in the fraction of population using mobile telephony improves incomes by roughly 0.3 per cent points, whereas a similar 1 per cent increase in financial inclusion has double the impact on income. The findings also support a convex, non-linear relationship between income and cellular penetration. Robustness tests lend credence to these findings. Originality/value Although there are several studies on mobile telephony and growth, this paper provides a completely original contribution in the area of financial inclusion, linking the development of access to mobile communication to new channels for the unbanked population in the Arab economies.

Exploring dimensions of firm competencies and their impact on performance

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1003-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rameshwar Dubey ◽  
Tripti Singh ◽  
Sadia Samar Ali ◽  
V.G. Venkatesh ◽  
Omprakash K. Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Product Quality ◽  
Preventive Maintenance ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Response Error ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Product Pricing ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the dimensions of Indian manufacturing firms’ competencies and to study the impact of these competencies on firm performance. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have adopted a literature survey to identify variables and gaps in the research. Based on the construct and its item identified through the literature review the authors have developed a structured questionnaire which was pre-tested before being used for the final survey. The authors have collected data from 100 firms out of 275 targeted firms in two phases which represents a 36.36 per cent response rate. The data have been subjected to exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using varimax rotation, which reduced the data into seven parsimonious and orthogonal factors. The authors then carried out regression analysis using EFA output to test the relationship between six independent variables, representing competencies of the firm and performance. Findings – Findings show that EFA has reduced the data into seven factors, out of which six represent firm competencies and one represents firm performance. The competencies which have been identified are supply-demand coordination and product pricing, logistics, marketing, procurement, manufacturing simplicity and product quality and preventive maintenance. The EFA output was further tested using multiple linear regression analysis which shows that out of six competencies, four are positively supporting, except procurement which is negatively supporting and logistics which is found to be statistically insignificant. Research limitations/implications – The conclusive model suggests that there is considerable impact from other deterministic variables which are not assumed in the present study, and some of the variance has been accounted for by stochastic variables and response error. However, utmost care has been taken to minimise response error by personal follow-up with each of these firms. The outcome of the quantitative analysis provides an insight into firm competencies and their impact on firm performance. It is very important for the managers who are interested in deriving superior performance from their firm and focusing on supply-demand coordination and product pricing, manufacturing simplicity, marketing and product quality and preventive maintenance practices. Originality/value – This original study has been carried out by researchers in India on Indian manufacturing firms and adopted an EFA technique to identify dimensions which are unique in their contribution.

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