An introduction to Monte Carlo simulations in criminal psychology: applications in evaluating biased estimators for recidivism

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Jeremy N.V Miles
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Psychology ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Mc Simulation ◽  
Biased Estimators ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Studies in criminal psychology are inevitably undertaken in a context of uncertainty. One class of methods addressing such uncertainties is Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to MC simulation for representing uncertainty and focusses on likely uses in studies of criminology and psychology. In addition to describing the method and providing a step-by-step guide to implementing a MC simulation, this paper provides examples using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Survey data. Results show MC simulations can be a useful technique to test biased estimators and to evaluate the effect of bias on power for statistical tests. Design/methodology/approach – After describing MC simulation methods in detail, this paper provides a step-by-step guide to conducting a simulation. Then, a series of examples are provided. First, the authors present a brief example of how to generate data using MC simulation and the implications of alternative probability distribution assumptions. The second example uses actual data to evaluate the impact that omitted variable bias can have on least squares estimators. A third example evaluates the impact this form of heteroskedasticity can have on the power of statistical tests. Findings – This study shows MC simulated variable means are very similar to the actual data, but the standard deviations are considerably less in MC simulation-generated data. Using actual data on criminal convictions and income of fathers, the authors demonstrate the impact of omitted variable bias on the standard errors of the least squares estimator. Lastly, the authors show the p-values are systematically larger and the rejection frequencies correspondingly smaller in heteroskedastic error models compared to a model with homoskedastic errors. Originality/value – The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of what MC simulation methods are and what can be achieved with them. A key value of this paper is that the authors focus on understanding the concepts of MC simulation for researchers of statistics and psychology in particular. Furthermore, the authors provide a step-by-step description of the MC simulation approach and provide examples using real survey data on criminal convictions and economic characteristics of fathers in large US cities.

Firm-specific corporate governance and analysts’ earnings forecast characteristics

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minna Yu ◽  
Yanming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Corporate Management ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance on the capital market participants’ abilities to forecast future performance, as measured by the properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts in Asian stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper hypothesizes that higher corporate governance is associated with lower forecast errors, lower forecast dispersion and lower forecast revision volatility. Findings These predictions are supported with a sample of companies across eleven Asian economies over 2004-2012. The results of this paper suggest that corporate governance plays a significant role in the predictability of firm’s future performance and, therefore, improves the financial environment in Asian stock markets. Furthermore, the impact of corporate governance on analysts’ forecast properties is more pronounced in countries with strong investor protection. Research/limitations/implications The authors acknowledge the following limitations of this paper. First, the results of this paper may be subject to omitted-variable bias and endogeneity issue. The authors have used control variables in the regressions to reduce the omitted variable bias. The authors have run lead-lag regressions to address causality issue. Second, CLSA corporate governance scores are collected for largest companies in each jurisdiction. Therefore, the sample is biased towards the largest companies in those jurisdictions and may not be representative of the average firm in the Asia. Originality/value The results of this paper speak to the benefit of having strong corporate governance in terms of reducing the information asymmetry between investors and corporate management.

The Impact of ICT Investment on Establishment Productivity

2003 ◽  
Vol 184 ◽  
pp. 99-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Lagged Effects ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Employee Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Establishment Panel Data

This paper finds substantial effects of ICT investments on productivity for a large and representative German establishment panel data set. In contrast to the bulk of the literature also establishments without ICT capital are included and lagged effects of ICT investments are analysed. In addition, a broad range of establishment and employee characteristics are taken account of in order to avoid omitted variable bias. It is shown that taking into account unobserved heterogeneity of the establishments and endogeneity of ICT investments increases the estimated lagged productivity impact of ICT investments.

Relative supervisor education and worker well-being

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 731-745
Author(s):  
Benjamin Artz
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Worker Education ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose Less educated supervisors create worker status incongruence, a violation of social norms that signals advancement uncertainty and job ambiguity for workers, and leads to negative behavioral and well-being outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to compare education levels of supervisors with their workers and measure the correlation between relative supervisor education and worker job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach Using the only wave of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth that identifies education levels of both supervisor and worker, a series of ordered probit estimates describe the relationship between supervisor education levels and subordinate worker well-being. Extensive controls, sub-sample estimates and a control for sorting confirm the estimates. Findings Worker well-being is negatively correlated with having a less educated supervisor and positively correlated with having a more educated supervisor. This result is robust to a number of alternative specifications. In sub-sample estimates, workers highly placed in an organization’s hierarchy do not exhibit reduced well-being with less educated supervisors. Research limitations/implications A limitation is the inability to control for worker fixed effects, which may introduce omitted variable bias into the estimates. Originality/value The paper is the first to introduce relative supervisor–worker education level as a determinant of worker well-being.

Performance evaluations and junior auditors’ attitude to audit behavior: a gender and culture comparative study

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Khalil ◽  
Rabih Nehme
Keyword(s):  
Performance Appraisal ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Internship Programs ◽  
Educational Path ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to shed light on factors leading to unethical acts committed by auditors from a cultural and gender perspectives. It investigates differences in junior auditors’ attitudes towards audit behavior when a performance evaluation (PE) is anticipated. The objective of this study is to aid academicians and audit executives in developing new models of PE and internship programs that should mitigate dysfunctional behavior. Design/methodology/approach A survey adapted from Big Four companies’ performance appraisal templates was administered to junior accountants who have completed their internship programs and their external audit course at accredited universities in Lebanon and the USA. Several statistical tests were conducted to analyze the relationship between the different variables. Findings This paper shows how PE affects junior auditors’ attitudes to dysfunctional audit behavior (DAB). From a cultural standpoint, American auditors express more negative views towards DAB than their Lebanese counterparts. This paper also demonstrates that female auditors are less inclined towards DAB than male auditors. Originality/value Previous studies on the topic have been mostly conducted in developed countries with a scarcity of studies examining multiple countries. This study focuses on two different cultural contexts, a developed country, the USA and an emerging country, poorly represented in the literature, Lebanon. This paper also observes variances between male and female auditors in DAB when expecting a PE. The originality of this paper stems from its concurrent examination of the impact of gender and culture on DAB by using a sample of less-experienced auditors at the end of their educational path.

Endogenous democracy: causal evidence from the potato productivity shock in the old world

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Joan Barceló ◽  
Guillermo Rosas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Old World ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Productivity Shock ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract Despite a high cross-country correlation between development and democracy, it is difficult to gauge the impact of economic development on the probability that autocracies will transition to democracy because of endogeneity, especially due to reverse causation and omitted variable bias. Hence, whether development causes democracy remains a contested issue. We exploit exogeneity in the regional variation of potato cultivation along with the timing of the introduction of potatoes to the Old World (i.e., a potato productivity shock) to identify a causal effect of urbanization, a proxy for economic development, on democratization. Our results, which hold under sensitivity analyses that question the validity of the exclusion restriction, present new evidence of the existence of a causal effect of economic development on democracy.

Social impact of Polish public libraries

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 168-178
Author(s):  
Magdalena Paul
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Public Libraries ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Instrument ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the methodological issues around developing a quantitative research instrument of the social impact of Polish public libraries. The results of the use of this instrument to survey users of Mazovian Province, Poland, are summarized as an example of its use. Design/methodology/approach The research focused on informational, educational and participatory aspects of social impact on the sidelines leaving cultural heritage issues. “Impact” and “social impact” were defined according to ISO 16439:2014. Information and documentation – methods and procedures for assessing the impact of libraries. The research instrument included questions both about the activities taken in libraries by its users and the benefits they gained. The questionnaire also contained questions which allowed to control the variables such as frequency of using libraries, socioeconomic factors and cultural practices. To describe dependencies, various statistical tests were applied. The study was conducted on the group of 1,098 users of 38 public libraries between February and June 2017. Findings Younger and people from smaller towns felt more benefits from using libraries. There are significant differences between types of benefits people of various age, financial status and household size experienced. People who went to libraries and other cultural institutions often experienced more benefits. The more a person performs activities in libraries, the more benefits he or she has. Some added value of particular activities is also visible. Research limitations/implications Despite the efforts and the size of the sample, it is not representative of the population of library users in the Mazovian Province (mainly due to the data collection method – auditory survey). Originality/value Studying the social impact of the libraries in Poland is still at its beginning. The presented research is, therefore, exploratory in terms of cognitive and methodological value.

The impact of R&D on GDP study based on grey delay Lotka-Volterra model

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhua Mao ◽  
Mingyun Gao ◽  
Min Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Volterra Model ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Relation Analysis ◽  
Analytic Expression ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to elevate the accuracy when predicting the gross domestic product (GDP) on research and development (R&D) and to develop the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model. Design/methodology/approach – Considering the lag effects between input in R&D and output in GDP, this paper estimated the delay value via grey delay relation analysis. Taking the delay into original Lotka-Volterra model and combining with the thought of grey theory and grey transform, the authors proposed grey delay Lotka-Volterra model, estimated the parameter of model and gave the discrete time analytic expression. Findings – Collecting the actual data of R&D and GDP in Wuhan China from 1995 until 2008, this paper figure out that the delay between R&D and GDP was 2.625 year and found the dealy time would would gradually be reduced with the economy increasing. Practical implications – Constructing the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model via above data, this paper shown that the precision was satisfactory when fitting the data of R&D and GDP. Comparing the forecasts with the actual data of GDP in Wuhan from 2009 until 2012, the error was small. Social implications – The result shows that R&D and GDP would be both growing fast in future. Wuhan will become a city full of activity. Originality/value – Considering the lag between R&D and GDP, this work estimated the delay value via a grey delay relation analysis and constructed a novel grey delay Lotka-Volterra model.

scholarly journals Can Panel Data Methodologies Determine the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Rosen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
The World ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

Several major papers have been published over the last ten years claiming to have detected the impact of either annual variations in weather or climate change on the GDPs of most countries in the world using panel data-based statistical methodologies. These papers rely on various multivariate regression equations which include the annual average temperatures for most countries in the world as one or more of the independent variables, where the usual dependent variable is the change in annual GDP for each country from one year to the next year over 30-50 year time periods. Unfortunately, the quantitative estimates derived in these papers are misleading because the equations from which they are calculated are wrong. The major reason the resulting regression equations are wrong is because they do not include any of the appropriate and usual economic factors or variables which are likely to be able to explain changes in GDP/economic growth whether or not climate change has already impacted each country’s economy. These equations, in short, exhibit suffer from “omitted variable bias,” to use statistical terminology.

scholarly journals The Impact of Lagging-Region Status on District Poverty in Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Rus’an Nasrudin
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact

Reducing subnational imbalances of development progress is unquestionable policy for heterogeneous Indonesia. This paper examines the impact of policy that assigns a lagging-region status namely status daerah tertinggal (DT) on poverty rate and poverty gap among districts in Indonesia in the two period of SBY presidency. The panel data fixed effect combined with propensity score matching is used to tackle the selection bias due to the nature of the policy, unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias. The results show that the lagging-region status that was aimed to mainstream central and district’s budget toward lagging regions statistically significant reduces poverty rate and poverty gap in the period. The DT status, on average is associated with 0.75 percentage point of reduction in the poverty rate and 7% reduction in the poverty gap index. AbstrakMenurunkan ketimpangan antar-daerah adalah sebuah agenda kebijakan yang niscaya untuk Indonesia yang majemuk dalam kemajuan ekonomi. Artikel ini berusaha mengukur dampak dari sebuah kebijakan penetapan daerah tertinggal terhadap dua ukuran kemiskinan, yaitu tingkat kemiskinan dan kedalaman kemiskinan pada dua periode masa jabatan Presiden SBY. Metode yang dipergunakan adalah panel data fixed-effect dikombinasikan dengan propensity score matching untuk mengatasi permasalah endogen pada variabel utama yaitu bias dalam seleksi terhadap kebijakan, keragaman daerah yang tidak dapat diukur, dan potensi bias karena ketiadaan variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap dua ukuran kemiskinan. Hasil pendugaan regresi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa penetapan daerah tertinggal yang ditujukan untuk mengarusutamakan dana pembangunan secara statistik signifikan dan menyebabkan penurunan tingkat kemiskinan dan kedalaman kemiskinan di masa tersebut. Daerah tertinggal secara rata-rata memiliki tingkat kemiskinan lebih rendah sebesar 0.75 (persentase) dan memiliki indeks kedalaman kemiskinan 7% lebih rendah.Kata kunci: Daerah Tertinggal; Kemiskinan; IndonesiaJEL classifications: I32, P48

Housing features and rent: estimating the microstructures of rental housing

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayato Nishi ◽  
Yasushi Asami ◽  
Chihiro Shimizu
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Rental Housing ◽  
Hedonic Model ◽  
Traditional Media ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Hedonic Approach

Purpose While consumers did not previously have information on detailed housing features via traditional media, such as magazines, nowadays, due to the progress in information technology, they can access detailed information on various housing features via housing information websites. Therefore, detailed housing features may affect current rents to some extent. This paper aims to identify the effects of detailed housing features on rent and on omitted variable bias in Tokyo, Japan. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies the hedonic approach. To identify the effects of features which are not observed previously, we use a unique data set that contains various housing features and over 200,000 housing units. This data set enables to simulate the situations when the researcher cannot get some variables, and this simulation shows which variables cause omitted variable bias. Findings The analysis shows that housing features significantly influence housing rent. If significant housing feature variables are not included in the hedonic model, the estimated coefficients show omitted variable bias. Additionally, unit-specific features such auto-locking door can cause omitted variable bias on location-specific features such accessibility to downtown. Originality/values This paper shows empirical evidence that detailed housing features can cause omitted variable bias on other features including variables which are often used in previous searches. The result from our unique data set can be a guide for variable selection to reduce omitted variable bias.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document