Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Rasha Qutb
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research seeks to empirically examine the impact of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt during the period of 1980–2017. In addition, it examines whether the distinction between discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure have a different effect on unemployment.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Johansen cointegration test to ensure the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, then the vector error correction model (VECM) to explore the dynamic short and long-run effects.FindingsThe empirical results of this research reveal that increasing government expenditure causes an increase in the unemployment rate in the long-run. Both discretionary expenditures and nondiscretionary expenditures increase the growth of unemployment by approximately the same coefficient. The worsening impact of discretionary expenditures on unemployment is highly attributed to the compensation of employees and the government subsidies. Investment expenditure has an insignificant effect because of its minor percentage in government expenses.Practical implicationsRedirecting the unnecessary expenditures toward labor-intensive public investments is recommended, in addition to reducing domestic and foreign debts. The government has to work hard to increase the economic growth rate, as it has a vital role in reducing unemployment.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt. Moreover, this research distinguishes between the effects related to discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of Foreign Financial Assistance Inflows and Its Fungibility Analyses: Evidence from Bangladesh

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murshed
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The external financing of fiscal deficit is key to bridging public revenue shortfalls within developing economies. However, the public expenditure responses to the incoming foreign financial assistances, as documented in the existing literature, depict ambiguity with respect to the nature of the assistances. Against this milieu, this paper attempts to perform a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics adhering to the foreign financial inflows–government expenditure nexus in Bangladesh tapping annual data from 1985 to 2017. The vector error-correction model approach to short and long-run correlations and causality analyses, variance decomposition technique, and impulse response function exercises comprise the econometric methodologies considered in this paper. In a nutshell, the results from the analyses indicate toward foreign financial inflows crowding out public investments, and reducing the tax and non-tax efforts of the government, while diminishing the amount of local public borrowings in Bangladesh. Conversely, financial assistances in the form of concessional loans and those originating from multilateral sources are found to enhance government expenditure, while the foreign aids intended for the health sector are found to be fungible in nature. Thus, these contrasting findings are expected to generate crucial policy implications with regard to structuring appropriate public policies.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

Cash crops financing, agricultural performance and sustainability: evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-503
Author(s):  
Abiola John Asaleye ◽  
Philip O. Alege ◽  
Adedoyin Isola Lawal ◽  
Olabisi Popoola ◽  
Adeyemi A. Ogundipe
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Cash Crop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Agricultural Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeOne of the challenging factors in achieving sustainable growth is the inability of the Nigerian government to diversify the country's revenue base. This study aims to investigate the relationship between cash crop financing and agricultural performance in Nigeria.Design/methodologyFour crops were considered, namely, cotton, cocoa, groundnut and palm oil. The impact of cash crop finance shock on agricultural performance was investigated using the vector error correction model (VECM), while the long-run relationship was examined through the identification of long-run restrictions on the VECM.FindingsThe variance decomposition showed that financing shock is more sensitive to cause variation in aggregate employment than aggregate agricultural output in palm oil, while for cocoa, cotton and groundnut showed otherwise. The long-run structural equations exert a positive relationship between cash crop financing and agricultural performance, except for oil palm and cocoa financing that has a negative connection with agrarian employment.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited to the unavailability of data for agriculture sector capital utilisation, which was not used.Practical implicationsThese results show that long-run benefit can be maximised by appropriate funding in cotton and groundnut production to promote sustainable growth.Originality/valueThe study examines the impact of cash crop financing on agricultural performance with the aim to promote sustainable growth in Nigeria using identified VECM.

Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia kousar ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Alam
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship between economic variables and the unemployment rate in South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachA panel Vector Error Correction (VECM) model is used to establish the long-run and the short-run relationship between unemployment rate and selected economic variables. Data were collected from WDI, WGI and FDSD for the year's 1994–2016.FindingsThe finding of the study showed a negative and significant relationship at the 5% level of significance among governance, internet users, mobile cellular subscriptions, fixed broadband subscriptions and human capital with an unemployment rate of South Asian economies. On the other hand, financial activity (credit) and population growth have a positive and significant relationship with the unemployment rate.Research limitations/implicationsIn the light of our findings clear that employment problems can only be created if the government does not put in place adequate measures to control the population and allocate resources equitably, giving a sense of belonging to all citizens. Therefore, to provide the controlled population with the necessary employment opportunities, it is necessary to allocate resources efficiently and to launch projects aimed at creating jobs.Practical implicationsTransparency or merit is the basis of good governance and the very first step to achieving the goal of good governance is to fight against corruption. It provides a complete justification for providing good quality management records, financial controlling and managerial systems.Originality/valueThe connections between governance and unemployment are complex and need to be studied in a detailed manner. There is the absence of literature that strongly interfaces good governance to unemployment; the fundamental work in this regard is Farid (2015). They locate a solid relationship between good governance and improving external debt situation by in Pakistan a time series analysis. But there is no research in the context of South Asian countries between governance and unemployment.

Public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment nexus in India: an empirical investigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 663-674
Author(s):  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Peer Review ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Enrolment Ratio

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus among public expenditure allocated to education, educational attainment at secondary level and unemployment rate in India for the period 1987–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001) to find the long-run relationship among the variables. The causal linkages are investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that educational attainment proxied by gross enrolment ratio at secondary level of education negatively affects unemployment rate in long run as well as in short run. However, public expenditure on education is ineffective in influencing both educational attainment and unemployment rate.Originality/valueThe study is the first empirical effort to identify the causal nexus among public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment in the context of India.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-06-2019-0396

scholarly journals The Impact of Tourism Development on Economic Development: The Case of Zanzibar

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Hafidh Ali Hafidh ◽  
Zulekha Ayoub Rashid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
National Income ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Tourism is perceived as one of the world’s fastest growing service sectors and a major source of economic development for many, if not all, developing countries. Zanzibar as a developing country and also is a small island which have small economy, its national income depend much on tourism contribution, Therefore this paper aim to examine the impact of tourisms development to the economic development of Zanzibar, using the data based on annual time series from the period 1989–2019 and also employing Vector Error Correlation Model (VECM) to arrive at conclusions from the data in the study area. The study results found a long-run stable relationship among tourism development and economic development of Zanzibar, there is a positive and significant impact that exists between GDP and international tourism arrivals, inflation and government expenditure respectively while only inflation results show positive but insignificant impact. In order to increase the economic development in Zanzibar through the tourism sector, there is a need for the government and other stakeholders of tourism to put much consideration on this sector so as to improve overall development of Zanzibar economy.

scholarly journals The Combined Effects of Public and Private Investments on Economic Growth in the CEMAC Zone

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noula Armand Gilbert ◽  
Chouafi Nguekam Orfé ◽  
Kamajou François
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluates the simultaneous impact of public and private investments on economic growth in the CEMAC zone between 1984 and 2017.To attain this aim, we use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to test the direction of causality between the three variables above at the level of each country. We find that the direction of causality is not the same in all the countries both in the short as in long-run. We then develop an ideal model going from the Cobb Douglas production function which we quantitatively validate using panel data estimation through the method of Pool Mean Group which takes into account individual specificities. It arises that contrary to economic theory, private sector investments have positive and significant effects in short-run. However, the impact of public investments is negative and significant. In the long-run, the effects are reversed and call on the authorities of the CEMAC zone to reinforce the political risk to strengthen the public-private partnership in the process of sustainable growth.

Oil prices, armed conflict and government revenue in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1196-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udoma Johnson Afangideh ◽  
Augustine Ujunwa ◽  
Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Purpose Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue. Findings The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure. Originality/value The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.

Does Infrastructure Matters in Government Spending? A Case Study of Jammu and Kashmir (India) with Cointegration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Ul Hassan ◽  
Biswambhara Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of infrastructure level on government spending in short and long run and also to find the tendency of infrastructure level to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. Infrastructure is related to the quality and quantity of goods and services provided by government to the population, to fulfil their diverse demands. The state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is not an exception; the increasing trend in different aspects of population and rising needs and aspirations of the growing population forces the government to increase expenditure on that count, which results in increase in aggregate government spending. Using multivariate cointegration technique followed by vector error correction model (VECM) model on annual time-series data for the period from 1984 to 2013 with broader data set of infrastructure dimension, the study found that the infrastructure variables cause major variation in government expenditure in short as well as in long run. Study shows that infrastructure related to health, education, roads and portable water produce positive and significant impact on the growth of government spending and infrastructure related to these dimensions has significant tendency to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. JEL Classification: H3, H5, H53, I

scholarly journals The impact of selected macro variables on child labor in Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Shafinah Rahim ◽  
Fatin Nur Nadia Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Child Labor ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of government expenditure, household expenditure and adult unemployment on child labour in Indonesia between 1985 and 2014. The data from the World Bank Indicators tested using Johansen &Juselius Cointegration (J&J), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality, Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVDCs) and Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) show thatthere are long run and short run relationships between the variables. Hence,the need to improve on policiesrelating to encouraging children to attend school without affecting their family income becomes critical. In addition household consumption pattern and spending decisions may require adjustment with the support of the authorities so as to assist the common man in prioritising their basic development needs, especially education.

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