scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of Foreign Financial Assistance Inflows and Its Fungibility Analyses: Evidence from Bangladesh

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murshed
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The external financing of fiscal deficit is key to bridging public revenue shortfalls within developing economies. However, the public expenditure responses to the incoming foreign financial assistances, as documented in the existing literature, depict ambiguity with respect to the nature of the assistances. Against this milieu, this paper attempts to perform a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics adhering to the foreign financial inflows–government expenditure nexus in Bangladesh tapping annual data from 1985 to 2017. The vector error-correction model approach to short and long-run correlations and causality analyses, variance decomposition technique, and impulse response function exercises comprise the econometric methodologies considered in this paper. In a nutshell, the results from the analyses indicate toward foreign financial inflows crowding out public investments, and reducing the tax and non-tax efforts of the government, while diminishing the amount of local public borrowings in Bangladesh. Conversely, financial assistances in the form of concessional loans and those originating from multilateral sources are found to enhance government expenditure, while the foreign aids intended for the health sector are found to be fungible in nature. Thus, these contrasting findings are expected to generate crucial policy implications with regard to structuring appropriate public policies.

Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Rasha Qutb
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research seeks to empirically examine the impact of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt during the period of 1980–2017. In addition, it examines whether the distinction between discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure have a different effect on unemployment.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Johansen cointegration test to ensure the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, then the vector error correction model (VECM) to explore the dynamic short and long-run effects.FindingsThe empirical results of this research reveal that increasing government expenditure causes an increase in the unemployment rate in the long-run. Both discretionary expenditures and nondiscretionary expenditures increase the growth of unemployment by approximately the same coefficient. The worsening impact of discretionary expenditures on unemployment is highly attributed to the compensation of employees and the government subsidies. Investment expenditure has an insignificant effect because of its minor percentage in government expenses.Practical implicationsRedirecting the unnecessary expenditures toward labor-intensive public investments is recommended, in addition to reducing domestic and foreign debts. The government has to work hard to increase the economic growth rate, as it has a vital role in reducing unemployment.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt. Moreover, this research distinguishes between the effects related to discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure.

scholarly journals Is the Compensation Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Can Genç ◽  
Osman Murat Telatar
Keyword(s):  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Compensation Hypothesis

Increases of trade openness in an economy raise the external risks in globalization. The societies demand on increases of the government expenditure in order to compensate for their risks. Hence the more trade openness may cause the more government size. This relation is named as compensation hypothesis in the literature has been comprehensively discussed by Rodrik (1998) but started by Cameron (1978). This paper attempts to analyze the cointegration and causality relationships between trade openness and government size in Turkey, utilizing annual data for the period 1980–2013. The existence of the long run relationship between trade openness and government size is investigated by applying Engle and Granger (1987) cointegration test. The empirical findings of cointegration test stated that the series are cointegrated. On the other hand the results of error correction model indicate that there is a unidirectional causality from trade openness to government size. The significance of this results state that the compensation hypothesis is valid for Turkey.

scholarly journals THE NEW ERA OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukmawati Sukamulja ◽  
Cornelia Olivia Sikora
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
New Era ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Financial innovation has entered a new era in which a digitalized system and cryptocurrency have been created. This paper examines the factors that influence the price movement of bitcoin. This is not a legal currency in Indonesia; the Indonesian government has not made any regulations legalizing bitcoin’s use, but it has also not issued any new laws to prohibit the trade in bitcoins and other digital currencies. The demand for, and price growth of, bitcoin are interesting matters to study, especially for Indonesians who still have questions about the progress of Bitcoin transactions and the factors that influent them. In Indonesia itself, without any protection from the government, the bitcoin price on December 14, 2017 had already reached more than IDR224.5 million, compare to IDR60 million in October 2017. Bitcoin is the first peer-to-peer currency, and was introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. Since its inception, bitcoin has served more than 17 million users, including Indonesians. Bitcoin behaves in a different manner, compared to traditional currencies and the one that affects bitcoin’s price is its attractiveness for investors. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to analyze the short-term and long-term influences. VECM is used in this research because the data is stationary in the first difference and has a cointegration relationship. To make the interpretation clearer, the impulse response function and variance decomposition also are included in this research. The result indicates that the macroeconomic indicator, represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the demand for bitcoins and the gold price influence bitcoin’s price fluctuations in the short-run and long-run. Bitcoin’s supply does not influence its price fluctuation in the long-run but does influence it in the short-run. The implication of this research is bitcoin could compete as an alternative investment compared to the capital markets and gold.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Bhim Prasad Panta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run

Background: Stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system of a country. It can be viewed as a channel through which resources are properly channelized. It enables the governments and industry to raise long-term capital for financing new projects. The stock markets of developing economies are likely to be sensitive to various macro-economic factors such as GDP, imports, exports, exchange rates etc., when there is high demand on financial products, as a constituent of financial market, ultimately stock market needs to develop. Many factors can be a signal to stock market participants to expect a higher or lower return when investing in stock and one of these factors are macroeconomic variables and thus, macro-economic variables tend to effect on stock market development. Objective: This study examines the linkage between stock market prices (NEPSE index) and five macro-economic variables, namely; real GDP, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate using ARDL model and to explain the behavior of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index. Methods: The ECM which is delivered from ARDL model through simple linear transformation to integrate short run adjustments with long run equilibrium without losing long run information. The analysis has been done by using 25 years' annual data from 1994 to 2019. Findings: The result suggests that the fluctuation of Nepse Index in long run is strongly associated with broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Conclusion: Though Nepalese stock market is in primitive stage, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are major factors affecting stock market price of Nepal. So, policies and strategies should be made and directed taking these in to consideration. Implication: The findings of research can be helpful to understand the behavior of Nepalese stock market and develop policies for market stabilization.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals Profitability Variables and Bank Size Effects on Corporate Zakat: Evidence from Indonesian Islamic Banks

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
Muhammad Anif Afandi
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Operational Activities ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Research Period

Islamic banks carry out their operational activities based on Islamic principles. Thus, they are not only required to pay taxes but also zakat of 2.5 percent with several conditions. Theoretically, zakat has an impact on Islamic banks larger expenditures compared to conventional banks which are not obliged to. This research examines and analyzes the extent to which profitability variables which are ROA, ROE, and BOPO, and bank size which is represented by total assets, can affect corporate zakat expenditure by Islamic Commercial Banks (BUS) in Indonesia. To do so, the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) is used to analyze the subject matters which the period covers from 2012 to 2017. This work finds that in the short-run, all the independent variables were insignificant. However, in the long-run only ROE and BOPO which were significant. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis showed that the dependent variable responds to the shock of its independent variables with fluctuating and even negative trend. In addition, the results of Variance Decomposition (VDC) analysis showed that the contribution of profitability variables and bank size tended to decrease toward the formation of corporate zakat expenditure by BUS until the end of the research period. Keywords: Corporate Zakat Expenditure, Islamic Banks, Profitability, Bank Size, PVECM

scholarly journals Empirical evidence of a long-run relationship between agriculture and manufacturing industry output in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eze Osuagwu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Industry Output

<p>This study investigates a relationship between agriculture and manufacturing industry output in Nigeria from 1982-2015, using the Granger causality, co-integration and error correction techniques. Empirical evidence reveals a bidirectional relationship between the sectors. Although, a positive and significant relationship exists in the short and long-run estimates, a long-run divergence from the vector error correction model suggest that changes in agricultural productivity are not restored to equilibrium, given that macroeconomic factors distort the linkage. Policy implications indicate that macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for agricultural and manufacturing sectors to foster economic growth.</p>

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment - Domestic Investment Nexus: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-275
Author(s):  
Abraham Babu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Reform Period

The relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment is intriguing. An important question arises - does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out domestic investment? This paper examines this nexus in the post-1991 period in India, which is also considered as the post-reform period. It is during this era; the above-mentioned topic gains more impetus as the economy opened up for further foreign inflows. The time period taken for the paper was from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The data series were checked for stationarity and the presence of long run relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment was analysed using cointegration test. Thereafter, the vector error correction model was estimated. The results clearly show that foreign direct investment crowds out domestic investment in India in the post reform period. The findings have significant policy implications because there is a substituting relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment in India.

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