The net effect of the travel restriction policy on tourism demand: evidence from Greece

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Dimitropoulos ◽  
Lazaros Ntasis ◽  
Konstantinos Koronios
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Restriction Policy ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
International Visitors ◽  
Occupancy Rates ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide up-to-date evidence on the net effect of COVID-19 pandemic on international arrivals and occupancy rates in Greece. Analysis and forecasting point out the demand for 2020, and thus yielding more concrete evidence on the pure effect of the pandemic on the tourism industry.Design/methodology/approachMonthly observations from January 2000 to December 2020 were extracted from the Tourist Enterprises Association (SETE) for Athens, Thessaloniki, Kalamata, Rhodes, Mytilene, Santorini, Zante, Kefalonia and Crete. To model and forecast the volatility and the time trend effect of tourist arrivals individually, the study applies the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) and the error, trend, seasonality (ETS) model.FindingsEmpirical results suggested that Athens, Thessaloniki and Crete were three destinations with the worst losses in international tourist arrivals. Specifically, Athens was expecting to have (without the existence of COVID-19) more than 330,000 tourist arrivals in December 2020 while instead only 73,000 international tourists visited Athens that period. Similarly, Thessaloniki and the island of Crete lost more than 150,000 international visitors during December 2020.Originality/valueThe author’s study adds to a growing number of studies regarding the impact of COVID-19 by incorporating monthly international arrival data and occupancy rate data for the whole 2020 reflecting differences in transportation or vacation choices. Also, the authors operationalized multiple time-series forecasting models (ETS and ARIMA) for reaching more concrete forecasts and estimates on the effect of COVID-19 on the Greek tourism sector.

THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOURIST TRENDS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Prochan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Remote Communication ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The World ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the impact of Coronavirus on the tourism industry and the development of tourism trends. In particular, an analysis was made of the impact of the pandemic on the world economy and overall GDP growth and world trade. The dynamics of world real GDP for 2017-2021, as well as the dynamics of international tourist arrivals for the period from January to March 2020 are studied. There has been a reduction in the number of international trips around the world by 60-80% in 2020. The following were the main measures to restore tourism. Anti-crisis measures were proposed for the functioning of the tourism industry under quarantine restrictions and its return to normal operating conditions after the removal of these restrictions. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the tourism industry hardest. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the flow of tourists in the world has decreased by 65%. In the first eight months of 2020, the number of international arrivals decreased by 70%. This resulted in the loss of $ 730 billion, and more than 120 million jobs were at risk. According to official data, the tourism business in Ukraine has already lost at least $ 1.5 billion. Thousands of workers in Ukraine's tourism sector have lost their jobs. Also, based on the analysis of the impact of the pandemic on tourism, new trends in the tourism industry were identified. It was found that the tourism market will recover relatively quickly after the pandemic, as people will need positive emotions. Although, of course, it is impossible to give an accurate forecast, especially in the face of changes in exchange rates. In addition, it is likely that the approach to life in general may change - the methods of remote communication will become commonplace. The segment of digital projects in tourism is becoming more active, which will help generate deferred demand and will work when all restrictions on tourist travel are removed.

scholarly journals BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT IN TOURISM: THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 239-246
Author(s):  
A. Lyulyov ◽  
T. Pimonenko ◽  
A. Khaba ◽  
Ya. Us ◽  
K. R. ogli Huseynadze
Keyword(s):  
Business Processes ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

Tourism is considered to be one of the most profitable and dynamic sectors of the economy. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the following quarantine restrictions have caused substantial losses and a critical decline in supply and demand in the tourism sector. Furthermore, the mentioned above provokes a further recession in conditions of economic, social and political tension. Therefore, the urgency of solving this scientific problem lies in need to develop a new strategy for qualitative change and improvement of business processes in the tourism industry. Consequently, it will allow intensifying the efforts to restore the tourism sector of Ukraine. The primary purpose of the study is conducting the forecast of the tourism industry development in Ukraine during the pandemic COVID-19. There were two scenarios considered to build the forecast of tourism activity: 1) without the quarantine restrictions; 2) taking into account the quarantine restrictions on movement. The integrated model of moving average autoregression (ARIMA) became a methodological tool of the conducted research. The object of the study was the Ukraine resident’s requests on the traffic routes from January 13, 2020, to May 09, 2020. Eviews 11 SV software has become a tool for the practical implementation of all stages of this study. According to the results of empirical analysis, the recovery of the tourism sector will have a slightly positive trend in case of the quarantine restrictions. Thus, the authors emphasized the need to increase the tourism market competitiveness through the introducing the new proposals, ensuring a high level of hygiene and safety, attracting innovative management methods, active using the modern information technology, etc. The study results are considered to be the basis for further research on building a strategy for tourism recovery in Ukraine.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN INTERNATIONAL TOURIST MARKET

2021 ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
J. A. Pshenichnyh
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Global Tourism ◽  
New Type ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Stage

Until recently, the tourism sector accounted for a significant share of the world's gross domestic product and provided about 10 % of world employment. In 2020, the global tourism industry faced a serious challenge – a crisis caused by the spread of a new type of virus (COVID-19 pandemic). International tourism has become one of the most affected by COVID-19 pandemic industries. The demand for tourism and hospitality services, which were one of the world's largest sources of foreign exchange earnings and employment in the era of pre-COVID-19, has significantly decreased. Although the future of tourism in an era of COVID-19 pandemic is very uncertain, a study of trends in the international tourism market in a crisis can be used to assess how the industry can recover and survive in the era of COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the statistical data of international organizations, the author studied indicators of international tourist flows, identified the main trends in the development of international tourism at the current stage, assessed the impact on the tourism sector of the COVID-19 pandemic and determined possibilities for its development in the context of the economic crisis, showed prospects for the development of the industry.

scholarly journals Understanding the impact of Covid-19 on Indian tourism sector through time series modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Ozair Arshad ◽  
Shahbaz Khan ◽  
Abid Haleem ◽  
Hannan Mansoor ◽  
Md Osaid Arshad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCovid-19 pandemic is a unique and extraordinary situation for the globe, which has potentially disrupted almost all aspects of life. In this global crisis, the tourism and hospitality sector has collapsed in almost all parts of the world, and the same is true for India. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian tourism industry.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops an appropriate model to forecast the expected loss of foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India for 10 months. Since the FTAs follow a seasonal trend, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method has been employed to forecast the expected FTAs in India from March 2020 to December 2020. The results of the proposed model are then compared with the ones obtained by Holt-Winter's (H-W) model to check the robustness of the proposed model.FindingsThe SARIMA model seeks to manifest the monthly arrival of foreign tourists and also elaborates on the progressing expected loss of foreign tourists arrive for the next three quarters is approximately 2 million, 2.3 million and 3.2 million, respectively. Thus, in the next three quarters, there will be an enormous downfall of FTAs, and there is a need to adopt appropriate measures. The comparison demonstrates that SARIMA is a better model than H-W model.Originality/valueSeveral studies have been reported on pandemic-affected tourism sectors using different techniques. The earlier pandemic outbreak was controlled and region-specific, but the Covid-19 eruption is a global threat having potential ramifications and strong spreading power. This work is one of the first attempts to study and analyse the impact of Covid-19 on FTAs in India.

The Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism Industry: A Bangladesh Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Sustained Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The tourism sector is experiencing numerous challenges as a result of the global economic crisis. After a significant contraction in 2009, tourism rebounded strongly  in  2010  and  in  2011  the  international  tourist  arrivals  and  receipts  are projected to increase substantially. The Tourism industry is expected to show a sustained recovery in 2012. The crisis has particularly strong impact and slightly negative consequences in Bangladesh. The country is undergoing a political crisis, as well, and it seems that the forthcoming elections may be the only solution for the restoration of stability and social peace.  In addition, tourism can be the driving force behind Bangladesh economic recovery. However, for its achievement the country’s policy makers should take several measures towards restructuring and improving the sector. These measures include: enhancement of alternative forms of tourism; environmental protection; creation of quality infrastructure; and boost of competitiveness through a tourism product that offers value for money

The Impact Of Economic Crisis On Tourism Industry: A Bangladesh Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Md. Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Sustained Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The tourism sector is experiencing numerous challenges as a result of the global economic crisis. After a significant contraction in 2009, tourism rebounded strongly  in  2010  and  in  2011  the  international  tourist  arrivals  and  receipts  are projected to increase substantially. The Tourism industry is expected to show a sustained recovery in 2012. The crisis has particularly strong impact and slightly negative consequences in Bangladesh. The country is undergoing a political crisis, as well, and it seems that the forthcoming elections may be the only solution for the restoration of stability and social peace.  In addition, tourism can be the driving force behind Bangladesh economic recovery. However, for its achievement the country’s policy makers should take several measures towards restructuring and improving the sector. These measures include: enhancement of alternative forms of tourism; environmental protection; creation of quality infrastructure; and boost of competitiveness through a tourism product that offers value for money

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese-listed tourism stocks

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenmin Wu ◽  
Chien-Chiang Lee ◽  
Wenwu Xing ◽  
Shan-Ju Ho
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis research explored the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on stock price movements of China’s tourism industry by using an event study method. The results showed that the crisis negatively impacted tourism sector stocks. Further quantile regression analyses supported the non-linear relationship between the government’s responses and stock returns. The results present that the resurgence of the virus in Beijing did bring about a short-term negative impact on the tourism industry. The empirical results can be used for future researchers to conduct a comparative study of cultural differences concerning government responses to the COVID-19.

Socio-economic preconditions of resort agglomerations development in the south of Russia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 467-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matvey S. Oborin ◽  
Irina Kozhushkina ◽  
Tatyana Gvarliani ◽  
Nikolay Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
The South ◽  
Health Tourism ◽  
Resource Potential ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the modern problems and the main trends of development of the health-improving tourism sector in the southern part of Russia and to identify significant factors in overcoming the complex challenges related to specific socio-economic conditions in the study area. Design/methodology/approach The material that served as the basis of the study comprises statistical data from the Southern Federal District and its subjects, as well as data about the development of tourism infrastructure on the official websites of governments, Ministry of Tourism and the population of the Southern Federal District. This information was systematized from a number of perspectives, including identification of the chronology of health-improving tourism infrastructure development in the chosen territory, as well as the advantages and disadvantages in this area. Based on the results of the study, the authors also developed some recommendations to overcome existing inactive trends in the field of health tourism. Findings This paper sheds light on the understanding of the challenges and changes that took place in the resort agglomerations of the south of Russia in terms of current issues and those that must be addressed in the coming years. It was concluded that health tourism in the south of Russia has old traditions based on the natural resource potential of territories that are included in the composition of the Southern Federal District. At the same time, the authors came to the conclusion that, unfortunately, not resort agglomerations are fully utilized. Furthermore, some historic resorts were not well maintained by local authorities and have suffered more recently because of lack of investment. At present, the financial results of health resorts and others related to health-improving tourism are precarious as most operations are unprofitable, and so complex decisions are needed to address the underlying problem of resource optimization because of the important social and economic role of the cities in this region. They have special natural and resource potential and preserve traditions related to health-improving tourism. Research limitations/implications The paper provides a conceptual analysis based on limited empirical data combined with some directions for further research. Originality/value The paper attempts to reveal the impact of social, economic and geopolitical factors, both negative and positive, on the development of the health-improving tourism segment, restructuring of the Russian tourism market and the emergence of promising opportunities and new directions for development. The findings also provide insights for practitioners and researchers, and the tourism industry can draw on this analysis to guide the development of strategy, increase investment attractiveness, make more effective use of the natural resource potential and maintain pressure on government partners to provide support to tourism.

How the creative mindset affects entrepreneurial success in the tourism sector: the mediating role of innovation capability

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natthawut Yodchai ◽  
Pham Thi Minh Ly ◽  
Lobel Trong Thuy Tran
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Innovation Capability ◽  
Entrepreneurial Success ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Business Goals ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
And Performance

Purpose This study aims to adopt implicit theory (IPT) to develop a creative mindset model and drive entrepreneurial success through innovation capability (IC). Design/methodology/approach Expert interviews were conducted using a questionnaire protocol. This study investigated the effect of the creative mindset on entrepreneurial success through IC, using a partial least squares analytical technique and by interviewing 176 Thai business owners. Findings The creative mindset drove entrepreneurial success through IC. Entrepreneurs possessing a growth mindset reflected and drove success directly or through IC. Although, those with a strong, fixed mindset did not significantly affect entrepreneurial success, they could drive success through IC. Research limitations/implications This study provides further insight into the probable causation of how the creative mindset and IC affect tourism entrepreneurs’ success. Accordingly, this study contributes a framework to help entrepreneurs’ creativity and performance in achieving their business goals. Originality/value Drawing from IPT, this study empirically tests and substantiates the mediating role of IC in the relationship between the creative mindset and entrepreneurial success in the tourism industry. This study can help entrepreneurs increase their managerial effectiveness.

scholarly journals INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES FOR THE BULGARIAN TOURISM INDUSTRY FOLLOWING AMENDMENTS IN TAX LEGISLATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (Suppl.1) ◽  
pp. 64-68
Author(s):  
M. Georgiev ◽  
Iv. Dimitrova
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Coordination Mechanisms ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Institutional Issues ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Retail Outlets ◽  
The Impact

The current study examines the institutional issues in the tourism sector of Bulgaria in terms of the impact of the by-law Ordinance № 18 of 13 December 2006 on the registration and reporting of sales in retail outlets through fiscal devices. The research applies: (1) defining the legal “error”; (2) the information asymmetries that pose a problem to the coordination mechanisms of the organization are described; (3) the negative economic effects are presented through the measurement of transaction costs. In conclusion, proposals have been made to improve this section of the institutional environment.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document