Revisiting the relationship between unexpected inflation and output in the presence of indexation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-261
Author(s):  
Pavlo Buryi ◽  
Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unanticipated Inflation ◽  
Unexpected Inflation

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between output and unanticipated inflation when wages are indexed for the loss of purchasing power. The authors argue that the monetary authority remains useful when firms that face rigid demand index wages to compensate for the loss of purchasing power, unlike Fischer (1977), who suggested that monetary policy loses effectiveness when firms index wages. Design/methodology/approach This paper develops a simple theoretical model followed by an empirical investigation of the relationship between output and unanticipated inflation in the presence of indexation. The theoretical model assumes a perfectly competitive firm that produces a final good that has no close substitutes using one factor, labor. The demand for the product is rigid. The empirical work considers quarterly US data from 1982Q1 to 2017Q1 and uses the Generalized Method of Moments in which endogenous variables are instrumented using their own lags. This paper further considers the period before and after the recent global financial crisis. Findings This paper shows that unexpected inflation decreases the growth rate of output in the USA. The decrease is quantitatively and qualitatively stronger before the financial crisis than after the crisis. This finding suggests that the Federal Reserve should maintain higher expectations of inflation and then surprise the public with lower inflation rates. The results further suggest that regardless of how expectations are formed, firms and workers agree on the nominal wage that is equal to the realized marginal revenue product of labor. Originality/value This paper sheds light on the behavior of the central bank and its relative ineffectiveness in light of the recent economic recession.

How did regulation and market discipline influence banking distress in Europe?

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-198
Author(s):  
Vitor Branco Oliveira ◽  
Clara Raposo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Market Discipline ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between regulation, market discipline and banking distress. Design/methodology/approach To address the empirical question put forward above, a multivariate logit model is applied to an international sample of 586 banks from 21 European countries in the period between 2000 and 2012. To give robustness to the results, different variables have been used to test the role played by market discipline and regulation as well as an alternative methodology known as duration/survival analysis. Findings It can be found that market discipline is a good indicator in signalling banking distress, that is, market discipline has penalized more banks with a higher likelihood of being in distress. Nonetheless, as broadly acknowledged, market discipline was not sufficient per se to avoid banking distress in Europe. With regard to regulation, this paper evidences that the adoption of other regulatory measures beyond the simple transposition of changes occurred in the EU Directives such as borrower-based measures and limits on pre-emptive exposures’ concentration, have contributed toward reducing the probability of distress of EU banks, showing that the introduction of this kind of measures was necessary and relevant. In addition, in this paper, it can be found that the NPL ratio, size, capital (including the well-known regulatory capital ratio, as well as the novel leverage ratio which discards the risk weights present in the former one) and liquidity are good indicators of banking distress which lead us to conclude that the new regulatory framework known as Basel III is on the right path to mitigate the probability that a new banking crisis similar to the last one takes place again. Research limitations/implications The first limitation regards the period of time chosen, that is, from 2000 to 2012, empirically neglecting, to some extent the important regulatory changes occurred after the aforementioned period. Nonetheless, as mentioned in the Data and Methodology section, the period ends in 2012 because it is difficult to flag a reasonable number of banks’ bailouts afterwards, to properly run the type of model used in this paper. The second limitation is the fact that the possible changes in the risk management and risk assessment by institutions and in the behaviour of investors, acknowledge as weak and inappropriate before the on-set of the global financial crisis, albeit very relevant, are not in the scope of this paper. Practical implications Despite the welcomed changes performed by regulators so far, some aspects are not complete yet and new areas deserve more empirical work and attention by the regulators and supervisors. Some of them stem directly from the results obtained from this paper such as the enhancement and a close monitoring of the current Pillar 3 framework the increase of the adoption of more targeted tools, in a more preemptive way, to counter the build-up of risks and the implementation of the leverage ratio. Originality/value In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the identification of leading indicators signalling emerging risks to the banking system has become a major priority to central banks and supervisory authorities. As a consequence, several studies have formulated the aim of analysing predictive characteristics of a set of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP Growth, Credit-to-GDP, Inflation, M2-to-GDP, among others. Other studies take a different perspective and complement the analysis with bank-specific risk indicators. Nonetheless the aforementioned studies do not consider the relationship between regulation and market discipline and banking distress. This is the gap the authors wanted to fill, and this assessment is the main contribution of this paper.

The effects of global financial crisis on the relationship between CEO compensation and earnings management

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 389-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oheneba Assenso-Okofo ◽  
Muhammad Jahangir Ali ◽  
Kamran Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Chief Executive Officers ◽  
Ceo Compensation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multivariate Tests ◽  
Executive Officers ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of global financial crisis (GFC) on chief executive officers’ (CEO) compensation and earnings management relationship. Specifically, the authors examine whether the recent financial crisis had moderated the relationship between CEO bonus and discretionary accruals. Design/methodology/approach The authors use panel data for 1,800 firm-year observations (over a period of six years from 2005 to 2010) and use univariate and multivariate tests to test their hypothesis. The authors divide the period into pre-crisis, during-crisis and post-crisis periods to examine how the different financial crisis periods affect the relationship between CEO compensation and earnings management. Various alternative tests including endogeneity test suggest that the results are robust. Findings The authors’ multivariate results indicate that the relationship between CEO’ compensation and earnings management changes because of the GFC. Practical implications The findings, therefore, justify more monitoring and scrutiny to limit the existence of opportunistic managerial behaviour and for the appropriate designing of CEO compensation packages during abnormal economic circumstances. Originality/value So far as the authors’ knowledge goes, this is the first study which examines the relationship between CEO compensation and earnings management during GFC.

Why “they” occupies the critical network positions?

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Hsing (Sam) Liu ◽  
Bernard Gan ◽  
Yucheng Eason Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Network Position ◽  
Knowledge Intensive ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to draw on social network theory to develop a new theoretical model to explain how experience and leadership influence critical network position. Broad analyses of the mediating role of leadership between experience and critical network position calls attention to the need to investigate the direct relationship between leadership and critical network position. Empirical examinations of the roles of leadership and experience within the social network context are lacking. The authors seeks to fill this gap by constructing a new theoretical model and testing it in the knowledge-intensive sector. Design/methodology/approach – The authors made 3,356 observations involving 427 faculty members in business and management departments in Taiwanese universities. To test the model, the authors performed two different regression models using the Baron and Kenny (1986) procedure and the Sobel test. Findings – The results that the authors obtained lead to three conclusions. First, scholars’ experience positively relates to leadership in grouping the followers toward the common goal and to their publications. Second, scholars’ leadership predicts occupying the critical network position, which, in turn, facilitates acquiring more information and resources. Third, experience relates to critical network position through influence on personal leadership. Research limitations/implications – Although the insights gained from the study are important in theoretical and empirical implications, this study has its limitations. The research examined the professional interaction networks of business management scholars of Taiwanese universities. Although the authors believe that the findings are generalizable to other fields of similar phenomena settings, there are also settings where the generalizability of the study is probably quite limited. Future research could study samples in other fields, such as biomedical research and chemical research, and samples in other knowledge-intensive industries. Practical implications – The results imply that managers can reap the benefits of their leadership either informal or informal organizations by occupying a critical position to control the flow of resources and information. In other words, the results indicate that leadership can be developed through experience. As well, leadership plays an important mediating role between experience and critical network positions. This may seem to contradict the evidence from research on network concepts and resources control, which primarily draws attention to leadership being a helpful quality for those in critical network positions. Originality/value – This research extends beyond previous studies that focussed on the value of critical network positions. Furthermore, the paper also examines how the relationship between prior relevant experience and leadership plays a role in academic network settings. To the authors’ knowledge, no studies explore this perspective. Finally, studies that examine the relationship between business management academic networks and different methodology used to measures the network position are few in number, and those that use such longitudinal empirical work are particularly lacking. This study addresses these issues.

Sustainability reporting and bank performance after financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amina Buallay ◽  
Sayed M. Fadel ◽  
Jasim Alajmi ◽  
Shahrokh Saudagaran
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Sustainability Reporting ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between sustainability reporting and bank performance after financial crisis in developed and developing countries. Design/methodology/approach This study examines 882 banks from developed and developing countries covering 11 years after the 2008 financial crisis. The independent variable is environmental, social and governance (ESG) scores. The dependent variables are return on assets, return on equity and Tobin’s Q. This study uses bank- and country-specific control variables to measure the relationship between sustainability reporting and bank performance. Findings The findings deduced from the empirical results demonstrate that ESG improves banks’ accounting and market-based performance in developed countries, supporting value creation theory. Using pooling regression and instrumental variable – generalized method of moments, this study finds that ESG weakens banks’ performance in developed and developing countries. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to investigate and compare the impact of sustainability reporting on banks’ performance in developed and developing countries. The study found similarities in the impact of sustainability reporting and the improvement of banks’ current and future performance.

The information content of discretionary accruals during systemic crises

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-476
Author(s):  
Nicola Moscariello ◽  
Pietro Fera ◽  
Ettore Cinque
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bid Ask Spread ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeBy analyzing the relationship between discretionary accruals and information asymmetry throughout the latest global financial crisis, this paper deepens our understanding of the effect of managerial discretion on the informativeness of earnings in the case of a negative exogenous shock in business fundamentals.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines the relationship between discretionary accruals and the bid–ask spread within the Italian Stock Exchange over the period of 2007–2012. The authors focus on one country in order to avoid systematic cross-country performance variation in discretionary accruals models, and they use the bid–ask spread as a proxy for information asymmetry.FindingsThis paper shows the role played by discretionary accruals in unblocking private information in the case of a negative exogenous shock in business fundamentals and finds a significant negative relationship between discretionary accruals and the bid–ask spread during the global financial crisis, although only limited to firms with strong corporate governance.Research limitations/implicationsSince the paper focuses on one country, the findings might not be necessarily generalizable. Moreover, the relatively small sample size could be another limitation.Practical implicationsThis paper offers useful evidence to identify settings in which discretionary accruals increase the informativeness of earnings. Further, it suggests controlling for macroeconomic variables to mitigate the risk of an erroneous interpretation of discretionary accruals models.Originality/valueThis paper extends knowledge and collects new evidence on the information content of discretionary accruals by investigating the relationship between discretionary accruals and information asymmetry during a systemic crisis.

Determinants of banks’ risk-taking behavior, stability and profitability: evidence from GCC countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi ◽  
Asish Saha
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of bank-specific, financial structure and macroeconomic factors on the risk-taking behavior, stability and profitability of banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies during 1998–2017. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a two-step system generalized method of moments dynamic model to analyze the data. Findings The results show that non-traditional activities increase the risk and decrease the stability and profitability of banks that are highly capitalized, highly liquid and large. Banks in this group are less engaged in securities investments and their higher degree of loan exposure leads to a decrease in risk and an increase in their stability and profitability. Higher concentration increases the risk and decreases the stability and profitability of banks that are less capitalized, less liquid and small. Banks with a higher share of non-traditional activities are riskier and less stable and less profitable before the financial crisis. The study finds that banks with relatively higher capitalization and high lending growth rates are riskier, profitable and less stable during the crisis. Larger commercial banks are less risky and more stable and profitable than smaller banks before the global financial crisis. Islamic banks performed better in terms of fee income, capitalization, liquidity, asset quality and have higher market concentration than conventional banks. Originality/value The study provides the first comprehensive empirical evidence on the drivers of risk-taking behavior, stability and profitability of the GCC banks. It also investigates the differences across these variables based on the characteristics of financial strength such as capitalization, liquidity and size; before, during and after the financial crisis; and differences between Islamic and conventional banks.

Financial distress determinants among SMEs: empirical evidence from Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Yazdanfar ◽  
Peter Öhman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically investigate determinants of financial distress among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) during the global financial crisis and post-crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachSeveral statistical methods, including multiple binary logistic regression, were used to analyse a longitudinal cross-sectional panel data set of 3,865 Swedish SMEs operating in five industries over the 2008–2015 period.FindingsThe results suggest that financial distress is influenced by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. the global financial crisis) and, in particular, by various firm-specific characteristics (i.e. performance, financial leverage and financial distress in previous year). However, firm size and industry affiliation have no significant relationship with financial distress.Research limitationsDue to data availability, this study is limited to a sample of Swedish SMEs in five industries covering eight years. Further research could examine the generalizability of these findings by investigating other firms operating in other industries and other countries.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine determinants of financial distress among SMEs operating in Sweden using data from a large-scale longitudinal cross-sectional database.

scholarly journals Corporate debt maturity and economic development

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 669-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celia Álvarez-Botas ◽  
Víctor M. González-Méndez
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Bank Concentration

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of economic development on the influence of country-level determinants on corporate debt maturity, bearing in mind firm size and the period of financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ panel data estimation with fixed effects to examine the role of economic development in influencing the relationship between country-level determinants on corporate debt maturity. The paper uses a sample of 30,727 listed firms, belonging to 39 countries, over the period 2005–2012. Findings Corporate debt maturity increases with the efficiency of the legal system and bank concentration and decreases with the weight of banks in the economy. However, the importance of these country determinants is greater in developing than in developed countries. The authors also show that firm size in developed and developing countries influences country determinants of corporate debt maturity. Finally, the results reveal that the financial crisis has affected the debt maturity of firms differently in developed and developing countries, with the effect of bank concentration lengthening debt maturity, this effect being more pronounced in developing countries. Practical implications The findings provide useful insights to guide policy decisions providing access to long-term financing, as corporate debt maturity depends on economic development, institutional environment, banking structure and firm size. Originality/value This study incorporates economic development in explaining the relationship between country-level determinants and corporate debt maturity.

What drives the venture capital investments in China?

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 574-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixi Ning ◽  
Gubo Xu ◽  
Ziwu Long
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Aggregate Amount ◽  
A Share

Purpose This study aims to examine the venture capital (VC) industry in China. It has demonstrated a history of high growth with significant variations over time. The authors have examined the trends and determinants of VC investments in China over a 20-year period from 1995 to 2014. They find that the aggregate amount of VC investments, the total number of venture deals and the average amount of venture investments per deal in China are all significantly impacted by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. GDP, export, money supply), technology innovations and financial market indicators (i.e. initial public offerings (IPOs), interest rate, price-to-earnings ratio, etc.). They also find that the 2007 China A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent global financial crisis have motivated VCists in China to adjust their investment strategies and risk levels by allocating more capital to later-stage investments and securing more deals with later-round financings. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the China’s venture industry has recovered faster compared to the US counterpart response. Design/methodology/approach The authors first perform trend analysis of VC investments at an aggregate level, by stages of development, and across industry from 1995 to 2014.To test H1 and H2, the authors use multiple regression models with lagged explanatory variables. To test H3, the authors use univariate tests to compare the measures of VC investments at an aggregate level, stage funds ratios, stage deals ratios and financing series ratios during both a five-year and seven-year time windows around the 2007 A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent financial crisis. Findings The development of the VC industry in China has demonstrated a history of high growth with significant variation over time. The authors find that the aggregate amount of VC investments, the total number of venture deals and the average amount of venture investments per deal in China are all significantly impacted by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. GDP, export, money supply), technology innovations and financial market indicators (i.e. IPOs, interest rate, price-to-earnings ratio, etc.). The authors also find that the 2007 China A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent global financial crisis have motivated VCists in China to adjust their investment strategies and risk by allocating more capital to later-stage investments and securing more deals with later-round financings. However, the China VC industry has recovered faster compared to the USA just after the 2008 global financial crisis. Research limitations/implications There are also limitations in the study. The VC data in China in the earlier 1990s might not be very reliable due to the quality of statistics. Therefore, the trend analysis and discussions mainly focus on the time after 2000. Also, the authors cannot find VC financing sequence data for the analysis. Second, there is no doubt that the policy impact from Chinese transforming economic system and government policies on its VC industry is substantial (Su and Wang, 2013). However, they cannot find an appropriate variable to be included in the empirical models to consider this effect. Further study on this area would provide meaningful information. Third, although the authors have done comparison study between the VC industry in China in this study and the VC industry in the US documented in Ning et al. (2015) and discussed some interesting findings, more in-depth research in this area will be very useful. Practical implications The findings have meaningful implications for VCists and start-up companies seeking equity financings in China. VCists should closely monitor macroeconomic and market conditions to make appropriate adjustments to their risk and investment strategies. Entrepreneurs seeking equity financings for their business could also monitor the identified macroeconomic and market indicators, which can help them with their timing and to negotiate a better equity financing deal. VC financing is more likely to succeed when key macroeconomic and market indicators become favorable. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by testing the supply and demand theory on the VC market proposed by Poterba (1989) and Gompers and Lerner (1998) from the macroeconomic perspective using 20 years’ VC data from China. The authors also examine how the 2007 A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent financial crisis affected VCists to adjust their risk levels and investment strategies. It provides useful information for international academia and policymakers to understand the quick rise of China VC industry. The authors also find that the macroeconomic drivers of VC industry are somewhat different under different economic systems.

scholarly journals Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Pavel Kotyza ◽  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Michał Wielechowski ◽  
Luboš Smutka ◽  
Petr Procházka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

Securitization of the agricultural commodity market has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, particularly in the times of financial market uncertainty and crisis. Sugar belongs to the group of important agricultural commodities. The global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a substantial increase in the stock market volatility. Moreover, the novel coronavirus hit both the sugar market’s supply and demand side, resulting in sugar stock changes. The paper aims to assess potential structural changes in the relationship between sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty in a crisis time. In more detail, using sequential Bai–Perron tests for structural breaks, we check whether the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have induced structural breaks in that relationship. Sugar prices are represented by the S&P GSCI Sugar Index, while the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX) is used to show stock market uncertainty. To investigate the changes in the relationship between sugar prices and stock market uncertainty, a regression model with a sequential Bai–Perron test for structural breaks is applied for the daily data from 2000–2020. We reveal the existence of two structural breaks in the analysed relationship. The first breakpoint was linked to the global financial crisis outbreak, and the second occurred in December 2011. Surprisingly, the COVID-19 pandemic has not induced the statistically significant structural change. Based on the regression model with Bai–Perron structural changes, we show that from 2000 until the beginning of the global financial crisis, the relationship between the sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty was insignificant. The global financial crisis led to a structural change in the relationship. Since August 2008, we observe a significant and negative relationship between the S&P GSCI Sugar Index and the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX). Sensitivity analysis conducted for the different financial market uncertainty measures, i.e., the S&P 500 Realized Volatility Index confirms our findings.

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