The causality link between political risk and stock prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiqiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Prior studies have paid close attention to the impact of political risk on financial markets. Following this strand of literature, this paper aims to focus on the causality link between political shocks and their impacts on emerging stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper highlights an innovative counterfactual model for political risk assessment. Based on a natural experiment, i.e. the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996, this study utilizes one data-driven approach, e.g. the synthetic control methods (SCMs), to estimate causal impact of this political shock on Taiwan’s stock market. Findings Major findings in this study are consistent with existing literature on the price of political risk, e.g. political uncertainty commands a risk premium. The SCM estimations suggest that Taiwan’s stock prices dramatically underperformed its newly industrialized peers and other developed markets during the crisis. The SCM results are statistically significant and robust to various cross-validation tests. Research limitations/implications Findings in this study indicate that political risks could generate enormous impacts on emerging financial markets. In particular, political uncertainty following new geopolitical dynamics requires proper identification and assessment. Originality/value To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first rigorous counterfactual study to the causality relationship between political uncertainty and stock prices in emerging markets. This paper is distinct from previous studies in applying a data-driven approach to combine the features of learning from others (cross-sectional) and learning from the past (time series).

Political risks and financial markets: emerging vs developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bechir Ben Ghozzi ◽  
Hasna Chaibi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
The Political ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors provide a comparative analysis between emerging and developed financial markets in terms of the effects of political risks on stock market returns and volatility. The authors also examine whether this impact depends on the nature of political risks. Therefore, this study aims to detect which financial markets are the most profitable and the riskiest in terms of political risks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate the impact of political risks on the excess stock market return and its conditional volatility using the generalized ARCH model for a sample of 46 developed and emerging markets over a period ranging from 1995 to 2019. In order to test how the nature of political risks affects equity excess returns and volatility differently in different markets, the authors employ (1) a composite political risk score, (2) the four subgroups of political risks as defined by Bekaert et al. (2005, 2014) and (3) the individual dimensions of political risks.FindingsThe findings indicate that the composite political risk is priced into both stock markets. The effect of political risks is positive for excess returns and negative for volatility. The authors show that the political risk leads to more volatility in developed markets. Nevertheless, the effect of individual components varies according to the market category.Practical implicationsThe authors provide a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the political risk of the country. The findings help investors make investment decisions based on the political decisions of governments. In other words, investors should consider political uncertainty when determining their expected earnings.Originality/valueThe authors engage monthly panel data methodology in terms of the political risk stock market relationship. In addition, the authors consider recent and very long data covering the period 1995–2019. Furthermore, this study combines three various political risk measures, and both equity returns and volatility.

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on Borsa Istanbul: an event study method

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunus Karaömer ◽  
Songül Kakilli Acaravcı
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unusual Event ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to research how the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impacts the selected sector price indices in Borsa Istanbul (BIST), Turkey.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the event study method because it is a useful method as stock prices and market instantly reflect the effect of such an unusual event. Data are retrieved from the https://www.investing.com/.FindingsThe authors find that selected sectors are impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. The banking and transportation sectors, on the announcement of first death, were impacted negatively, while the telecommunication and food –beverage sectors were impacted positively. The transportation and banking sectors experience an obvious downturn after the spread of COVID-19, while the food–beverage and telecommunication sectors experience an obvious upturn after the spread of COVID-19. Besides, the most adversely impacted sector is banking.Originality/valueThis study bridges the research gap and adds significant insights to the existing literature. The main contribution of this study to the existing literature is the unexpected outbreak impacts on financial markets, especially on BIST. It is also expected that this study will make a significant contribution to analysts, researchers and policymakers.

Regulatory changes and the volatility of stock returns – the German solar energy sector

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Schiereck ◽  
Julian Trillig
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Political Support ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political News ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of political risk on the German solar energy industry. The authors analyze the period from 2006 to mid-2011, when the technological development of this sector was remarkable while the whole industry is depending on political support and subsidies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply an EGARCH model assessing potential changes in conditional volatility response of solar industry stock returns following political risk events. Findings – The results document major changes in political support of the solar industry drive capital market risk. Whereby favorable political news significantly decrease volatility response and unfavorable political news do not affect volatility response. Moreover, the authors find that the volatility response varies with the exposure to political risk. Companies with higher exposure to political risk show more significant volatility response. Practical implications – Political risk affects the cost of capital of companies in this sector. Thus, managers are able to time equity measures in a way that they can determine periods when the investor's required return is low due to a reduced risk premium. The authors suggest risk reducing public policy facilitates investments in those industries and thus fosters the development and diffusion of immature technologies. Originality/value – The paper helps policy makers, managers, and investors to assess the impact of political risk on the overall risk of the German solar energy sector and in a broader view of immature or high-tech industries that depend crucially on governmental support.

scholarly journals Better the Devil You Know: The Impact of Brexit Political Uncertainty on European Financial Markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Doriana Cucinelli ◽  
Vincenzo Farina ◽  
Paola Schwizer ◽  
Maria Gaia Soana
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Media Sentiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Devil ◽  
Theresa May

The paper investigates the market reaction to three different events related to Brexit through an event study analysis, i.e. the announcements of the referendum date (20 February 2016), the referendum result (23 June 2016) and the election of Theresa May as Prime Minister (11 July 2016). We study the impact of these announcements on stock prices of UK companies belonging to export- and import-oriented industries. We also investigate the influence of previous events on stock prices of European companies belonging to the same sectors. Our results show that financial markets did not perceive the announcement of the referendum date and the election of Theresa May as Prime Minister as elements of political uncertainty. However, in the days before the referendum, investors priced it as an uncertain political event. The text analysis conducted on mass media sentiment about Brexit mainly supports the results of our event studies. Stock market performance around the events depends more on industry factors than on firm-specific characteristics, for both UK and EU companies. The only exception is company size, which positively affects investor reaction.

Market reactions to the inclusion of people with disabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Araceli Hernández González
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Research Advance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to provide evidence of market reactions to organizations' inclusion of people with disabilities. Cases from financial journals in 1989–2014 were used to analyze the impact of actions taken by organizations to include or discriminate people with disabilities in terms of the companies' stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis research is conducted as an event study where the disclosure of information on an organization's actions toward people with disabilities is expected to impact the organization's stock price. The window of the event was set as (−1, +1) days. Stock prices were analyzed to detect abnormal returns during this period.FindingsResults support the hypotheses that investors value inclusion and reject discrimination. Furthermore, the impact of negative actions is immediate, whereas the impact of positive actions requires at least an additional day to influence the firm's stock price. Some differences among the categories were found; for instance, employment and customer events were significantly more important to a firm's stock price than philanthropic actions. It was observed that philanthropic events produce negative abnormal returns on average.Originality/valueThe event study methodology provides a different perspective to practices in organizations regarding people with disabilities. Moreover, the findings in this research advance the literature by highlighting that organizations should consider policies and practices that include people with disabilities.

Impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk in the Indian telecom sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1395-1416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Priyadarsini Yalla ◽  
Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya ◽  
Karuna Jain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Buffering Hypothesis ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Telecom Sector ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Post 1991, given the advent of liberalization and economic reforms, the Indian telecom sector witnessed a remarkable growth in terms of subscriber base and reduced competitive tariff among the service providers. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk among the Indian telecom firms. Design/methodology/approach This study employed a two-step methodology to measure the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk. In the first step, CAPM along with the Kalman filter was used to estimate the daily β (systemic risk). In the second step, event study methodology was used to assess the impact of regulatory announcements on daily β derived from the first step. Findings The results of this study indicate that regulatory announcements did impact systemic risk among telecom firms. The study also found that regulatory announcements either increased or decreased systemic risk, depending upon the type of regulatory announcements. Further, this study estimated the market-perceived regulatory risk premiums for individual telecom firms. Research limitations/implications The regulatory risk premium was either positive or negative, depending upon the different types of regulatory announcements for the telecom sector firms. Thus, this study contributes to the theory of literature by testing the buffering hypothesis in the context of Indian telecom firms. Practical implications The study findings will be useful for investors and policy-makers to estimate the regulatory risk premium as and when there is an anticipated regulatory announcement in the Indian telecom sector. Originality/value This is one of the first research studies in exploring regulatory risk among the Indian telecom firms. The research findings indicate that regulatory risk does exist in the telecom firms of India.

La orientación al dato, nuevos desafíos

Tábula ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Amutio Gómez
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Data Preservation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
The Impact

La orientación al dato en el contexto de la transformación digital lleva aparejada la aparición de nuevas regulaciones, dinámicas de gobernanza y roles, y servicios, junto con las correspondientes prácticas, instrumentos y estándares. A la vez se suscitan retos en relación con la ciberseguridad y la preservación de los datos. En este artículo se exponen la transformación digital y la orientación al dato, la proyección de lo anterior en la administración digital, el contexto de la Unión Europea, trayectoria y su orientación, aspectos de la interoperabilidad, ciberseguridad y preservación de los datos, cuestiones de gobernanza y roles en la orientación al dato y, finalmente, unas conclusiones. The data-driven approach in the context of digital transformation entails the appearance of new regulations, governance dynamics and roles, and services, together with the corresponding practices, instruments and standards. At the same time new challenges appear in relation to cybersecurity and data preservation. This article presents the digital transformation and data-driven approach, the impact in digital administration, the context of the European Union, trajectory and orientation towards the future, along with aspects of interoperability, cybersecurity and data preservation, as well as issues of governance and roles in data orientation and finally some conclusions.

Working in a prison: Challenges, rewards, and the impact on mental health and well-being

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Dennard ◽  
Derek K. Tracy ◽  
Aaron Beeney ◽  
Laura Craster ◽  
Fiona Bailey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Service Development ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Staff Support ◽  
Prison Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Prisons are uniquely challenging working environments. Staff are often exposed to direct and indirect trauma, impacting negatively on their mental well-being. Due to the limited research into prison staff experience, this paper aims to explore what staff find most challenging, how they cope, what support they would like and rewarding aspects of their work. Design/methodology/approach This service development project was facilitated through a staff well-being event. A qualitative approach was used and 74 staff members provided anonymised responses. An inductive and data-driven approach was used to analyse the data, and the trustworthiness of the analysis was considered using criteria established by Lincoln and Guba (1985). Findings Thematic analysis identified six themes, namely, the challenging nature of the work, interactions with prisoners, staff interactions, inadequate resources, staff support and development and coping strategies. Key findings include managing distress, self-harm and violence and limited resources presenting challenges. Role variety and opportunities to support prisoners were reported as positive. A variety of coping strategies were identified. Wider availability of supervision and reflective practice was suggested by staff. Practical implications Recommendations for increased staff support are made. Suggestions for future research investigating methods to increase rewarding aspects of work within prisons are given. Originality/value This analysis adds to the limited body of qualitative research investigating prison staff experiences; in particular, aspects of the work that they find rewarding such as the role variety and opportunities to make positive changes to prisoners’ lives. Novel coping strategies were identified, including cognitive reframing and behavioural strategies for managing stress, which could be encouraged to increase resilience.

Herding behaviour and Islamic market efficiency assessment: case of Dow Jones and Sukuk market

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Emna Mnif ◽  
Bassem Salhi ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Parameter Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Activity Types ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the Islamic stock and Sukuk market efficiency and focus on the presence of investor herding behaviour (HB) captured by Hurst exponent estimation. Design/methodology/approach The Hurst exponent was estimated with various methods. The authors studied the evolving efficiency of the “Dow Jones” indices from 1 January 2010 to 30 December 2016 using a rolling sample of the Hurst exponent. In addition, they used a time-varying parameter method based on the Hurst of delayed returns. After that, the robust Hurst method was considered. In the next step, the efficiency of the different activity types of Islamic bonds was studied using an efficiency index. Finally, the Hurst exponent estimates were applied to assess the presence of HB. Findings The results show that, firstly, there’s a strong correlation between the “DJIM” and “DJSI” prices and returns. Secondly, by using robust Hurst estimate, it is observed that the “DJIM” is the most efficient market. The Hurst exponent estimation results show that HB is more intensive in the Islamic stock market. These results indicate also the inexistence of this behaviour in the studied Sukuk market. Research limitations/implications Sukuk as Islamic financial assets is recent. Their relative time series are not long enough to apply the long memory approach. Furthermore, this work can be extended to study other Islamic financial markets. Practical implications Herding affects risk-return characteristics of assets and has an impact on asset pricing models. Practitioners are interested in understanding herding and its timing as it might create profitable trading opportunities. Social implications This work analyses the impact of Islamic principles on the financial markets and their ability to understand some behavioural biases. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by identifying the efficiency and the presence of HB with Hurst exponent estimation in Islamic markets.

Corporate impact of carbon disclosures: a nonlinear empirical approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Mora Rodríguez ◽  
Francisco Flores Muñoz ◽  
Diego Valentinetti
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Reporting ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of recent developments in corporate reporting, specifically from the carbon disclosure project (CDP) environment, in the evolution of European post-crisis financial markets. Design/methodology/approach Theoretical and instrumental advancements from nonlinear dynamics have been applied to the analysis of market behaviour and the online presence or reputation of major European listed banks. Findings The application of a nonlinear statistical methodology (i.e. the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average [ARFIMA] estimation model) demonstrates the presence of a long history of collected data, thus indicating a certain degree of predictability in the time series. Also, this study confirms the existence of structural breakpoints, specifically the impact of the CDP reporting in both stock prices and online search trends of the sampled companies for certain periods. Research limitations/implications This study introduces new methodological perspectives in corporate reporting studies, as the application of nonlinear techniques can be more effective in capturing corporate transparency issues. A limitation to overcome is to explore whether the impact of reporting is different due to the specific reporting behaviour each company adopts. Practical implications The “breakpoint” concept should enlighten the importance to firms of providing more information in specific moments, which can impact on both traditional (i.e. stock prices) and modern (i.e. online popularity) performance metrics. Additionally, it should be taken into account by stakeholders, when analysing the accountability of firms to improve their decision-making processes and policymakers, for monitoring and contrasting speculative and insider trading activities. Social implications Online search trends represent a new public attitude to how society “measures” the effectiveness of firms’ disclosure behaviours. Originality/value Combining ARFIMA with structural break techniques can be regarded as a relevant and complementary addition to classic “market reaction” or “value relevance” techniques.

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