A scenario-based interval-input output model to analyze the risk of COVID-19 pandemic in port logistics

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bishal Dey Sarkar ◽  
Ravi Shankar ◽  
Arpan Kumar Kar
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Dynamic Evolution ◽  
Stochastic Evolution ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiplex Network ◽  
Port Logistics

Purpose Presently, Indian sectors are manifesting a higher level of interdependency and making the economy more vulnerable to human-caused and natural disasters. COVID-19 pandemic creates a devastating effect on the world economy. The Indian economy was expected to lose around ₹ 32,000 crores every day during the first 21 days of complete lockdown. This motivates to conduct the research on how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the port logistics sector and how the effects of COVID-19 on port logistics propagate to other sectors owing to its interconnectedness and affect the economy of the country. Design/methodology/approach The purpose of the study is analyze how perturbation in one sector can affect the system of interdependent sectors and it is done with interdependency analysis. It uses Wassily Leontief’s inoperability input-output model (IIM) and interval programming (IP) to develop a framework. IP is used to address situations where assumptions are not valid because of uncertainties associated with disruptive events. Findings The model helps in describing how the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in port logistics can propagate owing to the interconnectedness across other sectors. The model uses the latest five-year data available on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development database. It uses metrics like inoperability and economic loss to study the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors. This study also presents the ranking of the affected sectors based on their inoperability and economic loss Research limitations/implications In the future study, other techniques like dynamic evolution, multiplex network analysis, analytical hierarchy process, pinch analysis, stochastic evolution and pinch graph could be integrated with input-output (I-O) modelling. Integrated stochastic evolution with an I-O model allows capturing the likelihood of the events; it includes probability distributions instead of point estimates for scenario parameters. Methods like dynamic evolution and multiplex network analysis can be introduced in future work to shed lights on interdependency among the sector, which could potentially provide additional insights for transport policy formulations. Originality/value This study discusses the theory, methodology and application of the IIM-IP model in the domain of port logistics. The developed IIM-IP model helps decision-makers to manage risk in port logistics. Firstly, it studies how different sectors are interconnected with each other. Secondly, it helps in identifying the most vulnerable sectors based on economic loss and inoperability. Thirdly, it provides the ranking of the sectors based on their economic losses.

scholarly journals Mitigating demand risk of durable goods in online retailing

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijeet Ghadge ◽  
Sujoy Bag ◽  
Mohit Goswami ◽  
Manoj Kumar Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Uncertain Demand ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Online Retailing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Customer Dissatisfaction ◽  
Inventory Holding

PurposeAn uncertain product demand in online retailing leads to loss of opportunity cost and customer dissatisfaction due to instances of product unavailability. On the other hand, when e-retailers store excessive inventory of durable goods to fulfill uncertain demand, it results in significant inventory holding and obsolescence cost. In view of such overstocking/understocking situations, this study attempts to mitigate online demand risk by exploring novel e-retailing approaches considering the trade-offs between opportunity cost/customer dissatisfaction and inventory holding/obsolescence cost.Design/methodology/approachFour e-retailing approaches are introduced to mitigate uncertain demand and minimize the economic losses to e-retailer. Using three months of purchased history data of online consumers for durable goods, four proposed approaches are tested by developing product attribute based algorithm to calculate the economic loss to the e-retailer.FindingsMixed e-retailing method of selling unavailable products from collaborative e-retail partner and alternative product's suggestion from own e-retailing method is found to be best for mitigating uncertain demand as well as limiting customer dissatisfaction.Research limitations/implicationsLimited numbers of risk factor have been considered in this study. In the future, others risk factors like fraudulent order of high demand products, long delivery time window risk, damage and return risk of popular products can be incorporated and handled to reduce the economic loss.Practical implicationsThe analysis can minimize the economic losses to an e-retailer and also can maximize the profit of collaborative e-retailing partner.Originality/valueThe study proposes a retailer to retailer collaboration approach without sharing the forecasted products' demand information.

scholarly journals An economic analysis of post harvest losses in tomato of Akola district in Vidharbha region

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 141-151
Author(s):  
V. K. Khobarkar ◽  
U. T. Dangore ◽  
R. D. Vaidkar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Post Harvest ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Output Ratio ◽  
Processing And Storage ◽  
And Storage

Outputs of all agricultural commodities produced in the field have to undergo a series of operations such as threshing, transportation, processing and storage and exchange before they reach the consumer and there are appreciable losses of outputs during these stages of their handling. This is most uncertain to get expected returns. Moreover, vegetables are more perishable then food grains. Hence, post-harvest losses are quite often, at different marketing levels than food grains. The presence study was undertaken to find out the post-harvest losses of selected vegetable in Akola district for the year 2017-18. The data of 90 tomato growers were purposely collected from randomly located villages of the district. Simple tabular analysis was carried out to accomplished the objectives. This study revealed that per hectare cost of cultivation of tomato was Rs.101804.29 whereas per hectare the net return was Rs.73253.37 The input output ratio at Cost C2 in production of tomato is 1.72. The per hectare post-harvest losses at the farm level was estimated to be 16.49 quintal in tomato. The corresponding economic loss was 16645.20 Rs./ha. It is suggested that to prevent from the losses the farmers should be aware through training on standardization and grading, handling, proper packing and providing storage facilities and quick transportation to prevent the economic losses.

scholarly journals Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (13) ◽  
pp. 2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jibo Chen ◽  
Keyao Chen ◽  
Guizhi Wang ◽  
Rongrong Chen ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Joint Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Haze Pollution ◽  
One Year

Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables in the joint model to make the model dynamic. By designing and implementing a static model, it is estimated that the indirect economic loss for the transportation sector caused by representative haze pollution of Beijing in 2013 was 23.7 million yuan. The industrial-related indirect losses due to the direct economic losses incurred by haze pollution reached 102 million yuan. With the constructed dynamic model, the cumulative economic losses for the industrial sectors have been calculated for the recovery periods of different durations. The results show that: (1) the longer the period that an industrial department returns to normal output after haze pollution has impacted, the greater the cumulative economic loss will be; (2) when the recovery period is one year, the cumulative economic loss value computed by the dynamic EC + IO model is much smaller than the loss value obtained by the static EC + IO model; (3) the recovery curves of industrial sectors show that the recovery rate at the early stage is fast, while it is slow afterwards. Therefore, the governance work after the occurrence of haze pollution should be launched as soon as possible. This study provides a theoretical basis for evaluating the indirect economic losses of haze pollution and demonstrates the value of popularization and application.

Fertiliser evenness - losses and costs: A study on the economic benefits of uniform applications of fertiliser

1999 ◽  
pp. 215-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Horrell ◽  
A.K. Metherell ◽  
S. Ford ◽  
C. Doscher
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Fertiliser Application ◽  
Seed Crops

Over two million tonnes of fertiliser are applied to New Zealand pastures and crops annually and there is an increasing desire by farmers to ensure that the best possible economic return is gained from this investment. Spreading distribution measurements undertaken by Lincoln Ventures Ltd (LVL) have identified large variations in the evenness of fertiliser application by spreading machines which could lead to a failure to achieve optimum potential in some crop yields and to significant associated economic losses. To quantify these losses, a study was undertaken to calculate the effect of uneven fertiliser application on crop yield. From LVL's spreader database, spread patterns from many machines were categorised by spread pattern type and by coefficient of variation (CV). These patterns were then used to calculate yield losses when they were combined with the response data from five representative cropping and pastoral situations. Nitrogen fertiliser on ryegrass seed crops shows significant production losses at a spread pattern CV between 30% and 40%. For P and S on pasture, the cumulative effect of uneven spreading accrues, until there is significant economic loss occurring by year 3 for both the Waikato dairy and Southland sheep and beef systems at CV values between 30% and 40%. For nitrogen on pasture, significant loss in a dairy system occurs at a CV of approximately 40% whereas for a sheep and beef system it is at a CV of 50%, where the financial return from nitrogen application has been calculated at the average gross revenue of the farming system. The conclusion of this study is that the current Spreadmark standards are a satisfactory basis for defining the evenness requirements of fertiliser applications in most circumstances. On the basis of Spreadmark testing to date, more than 50% of the national commercial spreading fleet fails to meet the standard for nitrogenous fertilisers and 40% fails to meet the standard for phosphatic fertilisers.Keywords: aerial spreading, crop response, economic loss, fertiliser, ground spreading, striping, uneven application, uneven spreading, yield loss

Socioeconomic effects of pension spending: evidence from Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 599-617
Author(s):  
Fernando Bermejo ◽  
Eladio Febrero ◽  
Andre Fernandes Tomon Avelino
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Structural Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption.Design/methodology/approachBased on input–output tables by the World Input–Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income–consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis.FindingsThe growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households.Practical implicationsDetermining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system.Social implicationsThe results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis.Originality/valueThe current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2019-0047

scholarly journals Quantification of PV Power and Economic Losses Due to Soiling in Qatar

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3364
Author(s):  
Amr Zeedan ◽  
Abdulaziz Barakeh ◽  
Khaled Al-Fakhroo ◽  
Farid Touati ◽  
Antonio S. P. Gonzales
Keyword(s):  
Output Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Energy Yield ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Dust Density

Soiling losses of photovoltaic (PV) panels due to dust lead to a significant decrease in solar energy yield and result in economic losses; this hence poses critical challenges to the viability of PV in smart grid systems. In this paper, these losses are quantified under Qatar’s harsh environment. This quantification is based on experimental data from long-term measurements of various climatic parameters and the output power of PV panels located in Qatar University’s Solar facility in Doha, Qatar, using a customized measurement and monitoring setup. A data processing algorithm was deliberately developed and applied, which aimed to correlate output power to ambient dust density in the vicinity of PV panels. It was found that, without cleaning, soiling reduced the output power by 43% after six months of exposure to an average ambient dust density of 0.7 mg/m3. The power and economic loss that would result from this power reduction for Qatar’s ongoing solar PV projects has also been estimated. For example, for the Al-Kharasaah project power plant, similar soiling loss would result in about a 10% power decrease after six months for typical ranges of dust density in Qatar’s environment; this, in turn, would result in an 11,000 QAR/h financial loss. This would pose a pressing need to mitigate soiling effects in PV power plants.

scholarly journals Optimal Cleaning Cycle Scheduling under Uncertain Conditions: A Flexibility Analysis on Heat Exchanger Fouling

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Alessandro Di Pretoro ◽  
Francesco D’Iglio ◽  
Flavio Manenti
Keyword(s):  
Safety Issue ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Chemical Cleaning ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Cycle Scheduling ◽  
Cleaning Cycle

Fouling is a substantial economic, energy, and safety issue for all the process industry applications, heat transfer units in particular. Although this phenomenon can be mitigated, it cannot be avoided and proper cleaning cycle scheduling is the best way to deal with it. After thorough literature research about the most reliable fouling model description, cleaning procedures have been optimized by minimizing the Time Average Losses (TAL) under nominal operating conditions according to the well-established procedure. For this purpose, different cleaning actions, namely chemical and mechanical, have been accounted for. However, this procedure is strictly related to nominal operating conditions therefore perturbations, when present, could considerably compromise the process profitability due to unexpected shutdown or extraordinary maintenance operations. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis, the uncertain variables and the corresponding disturbance likelihood were estimated. Hence, cleaning cycles were rescheduled on the basis of a stochastic flexibility index for different probability distributions to show how the uncertainty characterization affects the optimal time and economic losses. A decisional algorithm was finally conceived in order to assess the best number of chemical cleaning cycles included in a cleaning supercycle. In conclusion, this study highlights how optimal scheduling is affected by external perturbations and provides an important tool to the decision-maker in order to make a more conscious design choice based on a robust multi-criteria optimization.

scholarly journals Low-Molecular-Weight Metabolites Secreted by Paenibacillus larvae as Potential Virulence Factors of American Foulbrood

2014 ◽  
Vol 80 (8) ◽  
pp. 2484-2492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hedwig-Annabell Schild ◽  
Sebastian W. Fuchs ◽  
Helge B. Bode ◽  
Bernd Grünewald
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Weight ◽  
Virulence Factors ◽  
Gene Clusters ◽  
Paenibacillus Larvae ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Low Molecular Weight ◽  
American Foulbrood ◽  
Toxic Activity ◽  
Content Type

ABSTRACTThe spore-forming bacteriumPaenibacillus larvaecauses a severe and highly infective bee disease, American foulbrood (AFB). Despite the large economic losses induced by AFB, the virulence factors produced byP. larvaeare as yet unknown. To identify such virulence factors, we experimentally infected young, susceptible larvae of the honeybee,Apis mellifera carnica, with differentP. larvaeisolates. Honeybee larvae were rearedin vitroin 24-well plates in the laboratory after isolation from the brood comb. We identified genotype-specific differences in the etiopathology of AFB between the tested isolates ofP. larvae, which were revealed by differences in the median lethal times. Furthermore, we confirmed that extracts ofP. larvaecultures contain low-molecular-weight compounds, which are toxic to honeybee larvae. Our data indicate thatP. larvaesecretes metabolites into the medium with a potent honeybee toxic activity pointing to a novel pathogenic factor(s) ofP. larvae. Genome mining ofP. larvaesubsp.larvaeBRL-230010 led to the identification of several biosynthesis gene clusters putatively involved in natural product biosynthesis, highlighting the potential ofP. larvaeto produce such compounds.

On Analysis Economic Loss Appraisal Method for Geological Disasters

2012 ◽  
Vol 594-597 ◽  
pp. 2272-2276
Author(s):  
Shi Gui Li ◽  
Qing Lin Yi ◽  
Juan Juan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Geological Disasters ◽  
Effective Evaluation ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Geological Disaster ◽  
Appraisal Method ◽  
Qianjiangping Landslide ◽  
China’S Economy

China is one of the most serious national which does harm to geological disasters, and the geological disasters have effect on China’s economy. Therefore, the effective evaluation for the economic losses caused by geological disasters has some reference value. This paper mainly introduces the geological disaster economic losses structure drawing and evaluated methods which include human capital method, shadow valuation method, market valuation method, investigation appraisal method and coefficient of proportionality method, and analyzes different economic losses should adopt different appraisal method. And take the Qianjiangping landslide for instant, this paper introduces how to evaluate landslide disasters economic loss. The idea and method have certain guiding significance to geological disaster economic losses evaluation.

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