A robust pricing of specific structured bonds with coupons

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-247
Author(s):  
Anastasios Evgenidis ◽  
Costas Siriopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structured Products ◽  
Innovative Model ◽  
Bond Issuers

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative model to evaluate the fair price of a subset of structured products for a hypothetical US structured bond. Design/methodology/approach – The authors assume that interest rates dynamics are described by the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process. They conduct robustness checks by stress testing against parameter and model uncertainty. Findings – The fair value of the bond is robust under any parameter or model misspecification. In addition, a change in the price seems to be more sensitive to long-term yields rather than short-or mid-term yields. The authors provide a better understanding of the relationship between bond prices and business cycles: a slight change in the current structure would have a significant effect on the bond price only during economic expansions. Social implications – The recent global financial crisis has led policymakers and the financial press to blame financial innovation through accusations of structured products being highly complex. Much of the criticism is based on the fact that investors were not able to properly price and fully understand the risks of their investments. Regulators should ensure proper pricing of these products to protect both the investors and the system. Fair pricing is important for bond issuers, governments or corporations to design their product at an attractive price for investors. Originality/value – This paper fills a gap in the extant literature by providing an innovative model based on an Euler–Maruyama Monte Carlo scheme to price structured products.

Low interest rate environment: inventory management in Finland and Baltic states

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Pekka Hilmola ◽  
Weidong Li ◽  
Andres Tolli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeFor decades, it was emphasized that manufacturing and trading companies should aim to be lean with very small inventories. However, in the recent decade, time-significant change has taken place as nearly all of the “old west” countries have now low interest rates. Holding inventories have been beneficial for the sake of customer service and for achieving savings in transportation and fixed ordering costs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, inventory management change is examined in publicly traded manufacturing and trade companies of Finland and three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the years 2010–2018.FindingsInventory efficiency has been leveled off or falling in these countries and mostly declining development has concerned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is also found that inventory efficiency is in general lower in SMEs than in larger companies. Two companies sustaining in inventory efficiency are used as an example that lean has still significance, and higher inventories as well as lower inventory efficiency should not be the objective. Two companies show exemplary financial performance as well as shareholder value creation.Research limitations/implicationsWork concerns only four smaller countries, and this limits its generalization power. Research is one illustration what happens to private sector companies under low interest rate policies.Practical implicationsContinuous improvement of inventory efficiency becomes questionable in the light of current research and the low interest rate environment.Originality/valueThis is one of the seminal studies from inventory efficiency as the global financial crisis taken place in 2008–2009 and there is the implementation of low interest rates.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Discussion of commercial lender judgment and fair-value recognition: an investigation into the impact of future accounting standards

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-486
Author(s):  
Nen-Chen (Richard) Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to discuss the study by Warne (2020), which investigates whether disclosure or recognition of fair value information for nonfinancial assets influences commercial lenders’ judgment on interest rates and the dollar amounts of business loans.Design/methodology/approachProvides a discussion of research design and general issues related to behavioral/experimental studies.FindingsIdentifies issues that should be carefully thought out and properly addressed by behavioral researchers in order to improve the robustness of the empirical evidence.Originality/valueThis discussion highlights issues that should be carefully thought out and properly addressed by behavioral researchers in order to improve the robustness of the empirical evidence.

Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuen-Wei Tham ◽  
Rosli Said ◽  
Yasmin Mohd Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

The changing relationships between government bond yields and capitalisation rates

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Jones ◽  
Neil Dunse ◽  
Kevin Cutsforth
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yield Gaps ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the gap between government bonds (index-linked and long-dated) and real estate yields/capitalization rates over time for the UK, Australia and the USA. The global financial crisis was a sharp shock to real estate markets, and while interest rates and government bond yields fell in response around the world, real estate yields (cap rates) have risen. Design/methodology/approach – The absolute yield gap levels and their variation over time in the different countries are compared and linked to the theoretical reasons for the yield gap and, in particular, a changing real estate risk premium. Within this context, it assesses whether there have been structural breaks in long-term relationships during booms and busts based on autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) models. Finally, the paper provides further insights by constructing statistical models of index-linked and long-dated yield gaps. Findings – The relationships between bond and property yields go through a traumatic time around the period of the global financial crisis. These changes are sufficiently strong to be statistically defined as “structural breaks” in the time series. The sudden switch in the yield gaps may have stimulated a greater appreciation of structural change in the property market. Research limitations/implications – The research focuses on the most transparent real estate markets in the world, but other countries with less developed markets may respond differently. Practical implications – The practical implications relate to how to value real estate yields relative to interest rates. Originality/value – This is the first paper that has compared international yield gaps over time and examined the role of the gap between index-linked government bonds and real estate yields.

Policy will be key to supporting cashless consumption

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Digital Divide ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electronic Transactions ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Subject Cashless society transformation. Significance Transacting electronically is quicker and cheaper than using cash, provided the infrastructure is in place to support the transactions. Across the world, the number of electronic transactions and the supporting infrastructure has surged over the last two decades. Card payments averaged 25.3% of GDP in 2016 in the 24 countries the Committee for Payments and Markets Infrastructure covers, up from 12.8% in 2000. Despite this, cash retains a key role, paradoxically even more since the global financial crisis, as ultra-low interest rates in the ten post-crisis years reduced the opportunity cost of holding cash. Impacts All cashless transactions are automatically tracked, forcing consumers to sacrifice more privacy without the ability to ‘opt-out’. An individual’s credit standing will gain importance and may become as key to gaining employment as it is to accessing financial services. There will be a digital divide not only in access to and exclusion from financial services but also the ability to pay. Payments for services could become the fastest-growing category of cashless transactions.

Bank competition in India: revisiting the application of Panzar–Rosse model

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1455-1477
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Samaresh Bardhan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bank Competition ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe paper measures the degree of bank competition in Indian banking over the period 1996–2016. Using bank-level annual data, we revisit the case of banking competitiveness during the prefinancial and postfinancial crisis and examine whether the global financial crisis alters the level of bank competition in India. Additionally, this paper addresses the misspecification issues associated with the widely used Panzar–Rosse model in Indian banking context.Design/methodology/approachWe apply Panzar and Rosse (1987) H-statistic and evaluate the degree of bank competition by estimating the extent to which changes in input prices are reflected in revenues earned by banks. Subsequently, we link this measure of competitiveness to a number of structural indicators (HHI and CRn) to examine the structure-conduct-performance hypothesis, which assumes that a concentrated banking system can impair competition. The simple panel regression model was used to handle the empirical estimations.Findingsfindings reveal that the Indian banking system operates under competitive conditions and earns revenues as if under the monopolistic competition. We also find evidence that Indian banks are competitive, even under a concentrated market structure. This observation runs, in contrary, to the prediction of the structure–conduct–performance hypothesis. The findings also indicate the differences in the estimated H-statistic value after considering the misspecifications of the P–R model.Practical implicationsFrom policy perspectives, policymakers should focus more on maintaining an optimal level of bank competition by mitigating entry restrictions, exercising less consolidation and withdrawing overregulation from banking activities. A competitive banking industry ensures both efficiency and stability.Social implicationsA competitive banking sector by lowering interest rates margin provides easier access to finance to both households and small and medium enterprises (SMEs).Originality/valueThis is the only study that addresses the misspecification of the P–R model while assessing competition in Indian banking and provides a thorough understanding of the role of concentration on bank competition.

Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the food and drink industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (7) ◽  
pp. 1627-1641
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek ◽  
Tomáš Pražák ◽  
Marie Ligocká
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate and evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices of selected food and drink industry stocks during the period of 2005–2015, which saw the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Design/methodology/approach The paper employed correlation analysis and the Johansen cointegration test with the vector error correction mechanism for EU companies operating in the food and drink industry. The paper tested the effects of GDP, inflation and interest rates (IR) on the stock prices of companies from Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and the UK. Findings Based on the results, the authors can see that GDP has a generally positive effect on stock price development. In contrast, the relationship between stock prices and inflation and IR is negative in most cases. Originality/value Despite the fact that a majority of empirical research on companies in the food and drink sector was performed using the microeconomic approach, this paper used the macroeconomic approach and clearly demonstrated the effects of selected macro-variables on stock prices in selected EU markets. Macroeconomic factors shape the company’s performance and could potentially lead to persistent changes in supply and demand conditions in food and drink markets.

Corona, command and capitalism

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Michael Ward
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Good ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Risk Pricing

Learning outcomes The case presents a lot of information, directly and via references and Web-based links, about the economic consequences of the virus. Several themes are evident: As an opening theory-base, the decades-long stakeholder versus shareholder debate is invoked – but does this extend beyond “stakeholders” to the “public good”? There are contexts (generally wars) in which governments are empowered to instruct private companies to engage in the public good – but how far should/must they voluntarily go? The underlying macro-economic issue is: where will we get the capital? Central banks have not recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis and have limited “ammunition” to address the anticipated economic problems introduced by the virus. The case presents data on selected financial metrics (interest rates, debt levels, risk pricing, etc.) and outlines the conventional stimulatory steps used: lowering short-term rates (monetary policy) and investment in assets (fiscal policy) and the less-conventional Quantitative Easing “QE”. Case overview/synopsis The coronavirus appears to herald a devastating blow to lives and to the world economy – its impact is yet unknown, but likely to be comparable to war and pestilence of biblical proportion. This case focuses on the possible economic trajectories as a consequence of the virus, with emphasis on bailing-out (restructuring) struggling companies and restoring jobs. Within the framework of a world desperately in need of capital, it raises questions about accountability and responsibility. Should retrenched workers in restaurants, banks and airlines feel the consequences of their poor career choices? Must shareholders (read pensioners) shoulder losses to support the public good? Ought governments bail-out whole industries – using tax-payer money? Or do we allow central banks to conjure-up billions and hope for the best? The case does not attempt to provide answers to these questions but presents several vignettes and offers a context in which participants can debate the merits of these problems. Complexity academic level MBA and Exec-ed. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 1 Accounting and Finance.

scholarly journals A Non-Gaussian Pricing Model for Structured Products

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Author(s):  
Denis Zuev
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Gaussian Distributions ◽  
Structured Products ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Market Framework ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Value Pricing

The paper aims to reconstruct the empirical premia of the structured products with two underlying assets. We apply various models that differ in probability distributions of the underlying price processes. Pricing techniques, currently worldwide accepted, are based on the Black-Scholes model modifications with Gaussian distributions. Conventionally a correlation between underlying price processes is not considered. In order to achieve the overall objective the paper suggests a pricing model of structured products. The model considers a non-Gaussian realistic market framework for pricing the underlying assets and takes into account their correlation. The theoretical and methodological basis of our research is quantitative finance, evolutionary equations, dynamical systems and field theory. The paper presents an example of pricing a range of structured products. We find that the approach to the theoretical premium valuation of the complex financial instrument is interrelated bijec- tively with statistical properties of the underlying assets. In particular, the paper presents the effectiveness of our model with regard to the structured derivatives with the correlated assets that obey non-Gaussian distributions. The fair value of the structured product evaluated using our model outperforms estimates obtained by means of other methods as it allows lower fair price of the derivatives. The results of our research may be beneficial to academics, market participants including market analysts, risk-managers and developers of financial products. We have concluded that market participants carry extra costs due to the simple models of the structured products' fair value pricing they apply. The proposed model looks especially promising within the context of the complex derivatives market which growth has been accompanied by low liquidity and high premia, in the absence of a unique framework for pricing the structured products that would be consistent with financial market practice.

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