Prospects for Mexico and Central America in 2016

Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America in 2016. Significance Mexico and Central America will weather the economic slowdown that is affecting many emerging economies in 2016, with most countries doing well by broader regional standards. Security and governance are causes for concern regionwide. Both criminal and state violence will be major issues in Mexico and northern Central America, with increasing migration giving organised crime groups opportunities to diversify and potentially spread south, and heavy-handed policing exacerbating insecurity. Border security issues have the potential to strain relations between countries, while allegations of corruption will challenge governments, with numerous politicians potentially facing trial.

Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 951-961
Author(s):  
Yara El Siwi

Purpose The gruesome attacks of 11 September 2001 signalled a powerful paradigm shift in international politics: governments previously accustomed to military menaces were now being increasingly threatened by independent, non-state actors. Consequently, a plethora of literature emerged, looking to better understand the nature of these actors. An aspect that has attracted substantial interest is the inter-relation between terrorism and organised crime (OC). This paper aims to answer the question as to whether, for the purpose of controlling and mitigating the threat they pose to society, there is meaning in differentiating between terrorist organisations (TOs) and organised crime groups (OCGs). Design/methodology/approach The first section of the paper will provide an account of the various kinds of threats posed by OCGs and TOs. The subsequent section will question whether it is possible, in today’s globalised era, to distinguish between these two actors, while the last sections will ask if such a differentiation is desirable. Findings OCGs and TOs display a clear divergence: the former’s motivation is financial while the latter’s political. With the end of the Cold War, however, each type of organisation has been building up the capabilities of the other, helped by the force of global networks. As such, these two actors now exist within the same body – a continuum – that renders their separation difficult. As to the question of desirability, the separation of the two phenomena has often led to the adoption of highly disproportionate militarised and securitised measures, resulting in a dangerous blending of law enforcement and security service methodology. Originality/value Many have argued for the separation of the “terrorist” from the “criminal”, on the grounds that the former is particularly heinous and deserving of more severe measures. Others have studied the evolution of these two phenomena to understand whether the lines separating them have been blurring and the extent to which this affects law-enforcement. This paper goes beyond notions of feasibility and poses the following question: has the traditional separation of these phenomena led to a desirable regime?


Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.


Subject Drug trafficking and security concerns. Significance On January 19, President Mauricio Macri signed a decree declaring a one-year public security emergency for the purpose of fighting organised crime and drug trafficking. Macri's success in tackling drug trafficking and insecurity, particularly in Buenos Aires province, will be crucial to his chances of bidding for a second term in office in 2019. Impacts Elements of the security emergency decree will face congressional opposition. Insecurity and drug trafficking were key election issues in Buenos Aires province last year, and will remain so in future. Returning border and coast guards to their original task of controlling frontiers will be necessary to improve border security.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariska Fourie ◽  
Philip Steenkamp ◽  
Jacqui-Lyn McIntyre-Louw ◽  
Clinton Oellermann

Purpose This paper aims to provide a holistic view of infiltration behaviour by organised crime groups (OCGs), with a specific focus on the methods used to access the legal market, including factors that drive an organised crime group to pursue infiltration. The act of infiltration is examined as a business decision; therefore, factors such as the surrounding community, the availability of criminal opportunities and broader implications, are considered. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the concept of an organised crime group is explored by, where possible, identifying trends in behaviour and structure. The act of infiltration is dissected, including the infiltration behaviour of OCGs and their related decision-making processes. Findings Infiltration actions are complex; therefore, any countervailing combatting and preventative actions will need to follow suit. OCGs pursue infiltration only when deemed feasible and to their benefit in furthering their illicit actions. Criminal opportunities are pursued across the entire economic sector. When these groups participate in a legal market, their criminality infects the healthy market and leaves it ill and contagious to the rest of the licit economy. Originality/value Infiltration is organic, as it indicates growth or adjustment to changing market conditions. Criminal opportunities are widespread, and their creation is often unintentional–the legal economy casts a shadow. Combatting organised crime, entrenched in the lawful community, requires that the focus should be on the susceptibility of potential infiltration targets through the possible infiltration methods. Furthermore, a broader perspective is needed when considering the underlying motivation for infiltration–it may not only be to generate profit.


Significance Originally expected to come into force only after the official signing of a peace treaty, the permanent ceasefire was moved forward, demonstrating both the faith of each side in the strength of the peace agreement, and the possible fluidity of scheduled events over the coming weeks. Impacts Increased security in some areas will allow increased investment and development. The good press Colombia will receive may see a tourism boost in the wake of the peace agreement. Nevertheless, FARC demobilisation will cause major socio-political upheaval and could trigger a short-term uptick in violence. The failure of guerrilla reintegration initiatives could drive many former rebels to organised crime groups.


Subject Recall votes. Significance The Chamber of Deputies this month approved a constitutional revision allowing for the introduction of a new law subjecting politicians at all levels to possible ‘recall’ votes. Now ratified by the required 17 out of 32 state assemblies, the move is the most sweeping and ambitious recall experiment yet attempted anywhere. It is also especially risky, a fact that seems lost on its authors. Impacts While the bill explicitly rules out re-election, a defeated recall vote could be used as a platform to argue for just that. Some state administrations will drag their heels in modifying state constitutions to implement the law, shielding themselves from recall. Local recall votes could give organised crime groups another route by which to affect politics in their zones of influence.


Subject The government's security policy. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto's December trip to the border city of Ciudad Juarez -- once 'the most dangerous city in the world' -- was designed to highlight an area where the government's security policies seem to have garnered impressive results. Pena Nieto claimed that since the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) took power two years ago, homicides in the city had decreased by 50%. However, this improving situation is not representative of Mexico as a whole. Impacts Homicide, extortion, and kidnapping rates in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Monterrey will continue to drop. Implementing the same security policy in states with warring organised crime groups remains much more problematic. In Guerrero, Michoacan and Tamaulipas, homicide, kidnapping and extortion rates will stay stable or rise.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Francis Hesketh

Purpose This paper aims to discuss the emergence of the contemporary Urban Street Gang (USG) on Merseyside. In terms of gang scholarship in the UK, Merseyside has been greatly neglected despite regular reports in national mainstream media that suggest Merseyside USGs represent some of the most criminally active and violent members in the UK. Design/methodology/approach A specific methodology has been omitted because the author while providing a viewpoint from Hesketh (2018), also wishes to encapsulate observations from the remaining two pieces of research conducted on Merseyside (Smithson et al., 2009; Robinson, 2018). For this reason, a summary of the methods used in each of the three studies is provided. Findings The paper will highlight observations drawn from all three research studies that were prevalent with USG members throughout the Merseyside county at the time of each study. They include aspects surrounding territoriality, belonging and identity through dress style as well as USG structures and motivation for joining. In particular, the paper will address also address the role of drugs which has transformed the structural make-up of many Merseyside USGs from relatively loosely knit-street corner groups involved in anti-social behaviour (ASB) to more structural-deviant entrepreneurial enterprises. Research limitations/implications The paper calls for more research to be carried out on Merseyside. Limitations would include the omission of young women in each of the three studies. Practical implications The practical implications are as follows: a need to focus on the impact of bridging within excluded communities; a need to focus on emphasising that drug dealing is a crime that carries serious consequences, and not a form of work (grafting); a need to focus on young women and criminal involvement; and a need to concentrate on developing strategies that counter the allure and attraction of risk-taking behaviour. Social implications The paper addresses the impact of social exclusion and the need for equality to counter young people becoming involved in criminality and gangs as well as adult organised crime groups. Originality/value The paper is based on what have been so far the only three in-depth studies carried out on Merseyside.


Subject The popularity and state scrutiny of social media in South-east Asia. Significance The successful introduction of smartphones has facilitated social media's rise in a region often characterised by low-quality landlines and relatively low internet access. The rapid adoption of social media in South-east Asia has also been accompanied by exceptionally aggressive state surveillance of such platforms. Impacts Organised crime groups in the Philippines are likely to use social media to implicate their rivals in Duterte's 'war on drugs'. The Thai junta will make the operating environment for social media platforms particularly difficult until at least 2018. Rising access to mobile telephony and internet in Myanmar could overhaul election campaigning.


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