Kazakh election raises questions about leadership

Significance The governing Nur Otan party won most seats and two tame allies were awarded a few. The importance of this election is that it offers pointers to how much power President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wields. None of his promises of political liberalisation has been realised and it is unclear how serious he is about change. Impacts Askar Mamin's reappointment as prime minister points to general continuity -- or stasis. Tokayev will defend Kazakh nationhood in the face of Russian politicians casting doubt on its territorial rights. Trends as regards civil liberties and freedom of expression are retrograde in both the real and virtual spheres. The OPEC+ bloc's special deal allowing Kazakh oil output to rise by 10,000 barrels per day in February-March offers some economic relief.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinicius Phillipe de Albuquerquemello ◽  
Cássio Besarria

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to assess whether the inclusion of the rental housing market affect the dynamics of the real business cycles (RBCs).Design/methodology/approachFor this investigation, the authors model and estimate two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) versions for the US economy, one with and one without the presence of residential rent.FindingsThe findings provide evidence that the inclusion of the rental housing market can improve the assessment of public policies and the projection of scenarios in the face of sudden macroeconomic shocks. The addition of this secondary housing market augments the effect of total factor productivity (TFP) shock on output and consumption. In addition, it increases the effect of the credit shock on the demand for housing. The latter highlights the role of credit for the real estate market. Therefore, the authors recommend that analysts and macro-prudential authorities consider adding it to their models.Originality/valueThe findings provide evidence that the inclusion of the rental housing market can improve the assessment of public policies and the projection of scenarios in the face of sudden macroeconomic shocks.


Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.


Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.


2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 382-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Argha Ray ◽  
Anjali Kaushik

Purpose Cyberspace is a virtual environment where instantaneous communications are initiated and consumed using computer networks without any natural or artificial boundaries. These communications are not only an exchange of information but also a catharsis on the socio-political environment of the real world. This explosion of electronic expression is often detrimental to the traditional secretive maneuvers of nation states and the exercise of its power. Unable to come to terms with the new reality nation states through legislative action or otherwise attempt to assert its sovereignty in the space that has no political and societal boundaries. This may lead to an encroachment on basic human rights that often have constitutional guarantees in the real world but may be violated in the online milieu. This paper aims to investigate this issue in detail and evaluate whether nation states are using cyber-security as a propaganda tool to transgress on electronic expression. Design/methodology/approach The Website of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights states “In December 2013, the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 68/167, which expresses deep concern at the negative impact that surveillance and interception of communications may have on human rights”. It further says “The General Assembly called on all States to review their procedures, practices and legislation related to communications surveillance, interception and collection of personal data and emphasized the need for States to ensure the full and effective implementation of their obligations under international human rights law”. With this development, this paper seeks to unravel the role of nation states in using cybersecurity as a propaganda tool by raising the specter of threat to national security and economic wellbeing. The paper is based on exploratory research with data compilation from secondary sources. To collect data, various research papers, books and journals have been referenced and data available in public domain has been accumulated. Findings This paper has tried to unravel state action on cyberspace which often runs counter to the concept of civil liberties. It indicates that in terms of both national security and economic impact, cybercrime represent a very nominal threat vector. Also, cybercrime as compared with other forms of crime is again nominal. Finally, cyber laws and policies of different countries need to be more nuanced such as to allow space for civil liberties. Overall, the propaganda surrounding the malaise of cybercrime seems to be more hype than real. We already have examples of countries who have transgressed into electronic expression in cyber space. Therefore, UN has a valid reason to raise a red flag on this unfolding issue. Originality/value This paper was published at 21st Americas Conference of Information Systems held at Puerto Rico, USA, between August 13-15, 2015 (AMCIS, 2015). The authors of this paper seek review by Editors of the Journal for Republication of original work. The authors have taken cognizance of the Originality Guidelines for Emerald published at this URL www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/authors/writing/originality.htm


Significance Medvedev and most of the faces in the new cabinet show a high level of continuity, although technocratic figures have replaced several political heavyweights at deputy prime minister level. The overall selection reflects a desire for political stability and careful economic stewardship in the face of domestic and international challenges. Impacts Demands from high-spending ministries will challenge the government's resolve to exert fiscal control. As Putin's term progresses, cabinet changes will be interpreted for signs of a succession process. Any unrest arising from economic problems or unpopular social reforms is likely to lead to the removal of the relevant ministers.


Subject Attacks on India's media. Significance The gunning down of the journalist Gauri Lankesh on September 5 has revived concerns about free speech in India. More generally, critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are facing a backlash. Impacts In forthcoming election campaigns, opposition parties will claim rising intolerance of dissent under BJP rule. India’s states will come under pressure to curb the vigilantism of cow protection groups. Protests over legislation criminalising same-sex marriages are likely to increase.


Subject Departement elections. Significance President Francois Hollande's administration seems poised to be dealt its fourth electoral defeat in less than three years at the department ('departement') elections, the first round of which takes place on March 22. Following the January terror attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store, the face of 'post-Charlie France' is much less republican than what many commentators expected or even hoped: Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) is more than ever empowered and might even reach the historical landmark of 30%. Despite this, Hollande will neither replace Prime Minister Manuel Valls nor change economic policy. Rather, he will try to re-build a presidential majority for 2017 by reshuffling the government and letting in Greens and progressive members of his own majority. Impacts The FN will be empowered by a likely historical result, confirming its status of first party nationally and locally. The UMP will win big in the second round on March 29, consolidating Sarkozy's return to the forefront of French politics. Hollande will not change his prime minister but open up his government to prepare for 2017.


Subject The junta's political priorities. Significance The annual October 1 military reshuffle and promotions strengthened Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha's power base. The junta is attempting to expand and consolidate its rule in the face of two approaching transitions: fresh parliamentary elections that have been promised in late 2017 and a royal transition. Expectations of the latter are rising as the palace releases increasingly pessimistic reports on the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Impacts A counter-coup against the Prayuth administration is unlikely and would probably fail. A royal transition would unsettle markets, albeit temporarily; the baht would fall, but quickly recover. Beijing will continue to accommodate Bangkok's political tactics, while Washington will maintain its security alliance with Thailand.


Significance As he departed, Bernardi argued that the governing Liberals "bled" votes to the anti-immigration One Nation party owing to neglect of the party's conservative base by centrists leading the government. With the election of four One Nation senators in last year's election and strong polling ahead of key state elections, the precarious centre-right government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may face a renewed electoral threat from the far right. Impacts Australian prime ministers of all stripes will struggle to implement climate-friendly energy policy in the face of conservative pressure. The growth of non-major parties could empower localist opposition to foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as ports and farmland. US President Donald Trump's back-tracking on Australia's refugee resettlement deal could undercut Turnbull's position domestically.


Subject Anti-Muslim discrimination in India amid COVID-19 crisis. Significance In its annual report released last week, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) designated India a ‘country of particular concern’. The USCIRF says anti-Muslim sentiment has grown in India since the April-May 2019 general election, when the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party retained power with a landslide victory. More recently, Hindu nationalists in India and even Indians working abroad have made comments on social media and other platforms associating the spread of COVID-19 with Muslim social practices. Impacts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will step up calls for social cohesion in the face of COVID-19, aiming to defuse anti-Muslim sentiment. A worsening reputation for religious tensions could lead to India losing some foreign investors. The USCIRF report will not imperil India-US ties, since Washington will not sanction Indian officials or agencies based on its assessment.


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