China's free trade zones will strengthen capital flows

Subject China's 'free trade zones'. Significance China last month formally announced details of three new 'free trade zones' (FTZs) modelled on the Shanghai FTZ introduced in 2013. The new FTZs are central to the long-term plan for China's economy to pursue domestic reforms and manage balance of payments pressures. As China seeks to develop new domestic drivers of economic growth in advanced manufacturing, services and technology, the line trodden by financial policymakers between preserving centralised control of the financial system and increasing exposure to foreign financial actors is slowly but steadily tilting towards cross-border financial liberalisation. Impacts Offshore and onshore renminbi markets will see greater convergence. State-owned banks will face greater pressure to reduce borrowing costs. The Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect will see greater flows of mid-cap equities trading. Speculative demand in mainland property markets will ease.

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 578-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick French ◽  
Geetha Bhat ◽  
Gurpreet Matharu ◽  
Filipe Ortigão Guimarães ◽  
David Solomon

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into how the demographic of international and home students in the major university cities in three European countries (France, Spain and Germany) offers investors an opportunity to provide students housing. This paper looks at how a mobile and demanding student clientele now demands, well priced, good quality and purpose built accommodation during their studies at University. This offers a good property investment opportunity. Design/methodology/approach This practice briefing is an overview of the demand factors that are creating opportunities in France, Spain and Germany. Findings This paper analyses the link between the under provision of purpose built student housing and an opportunity to develop a long-term cash flow producing investment asset. Practical implications The role of the property developers and investors is to successfully identify trends and demands and provide the assets that meet the market requirements. This paper looks at the meeting point in three major European countries for this latent and, currently, poorly served demand. Originality/value This provides guidance on how investment opportunities develop in non-traditional property markets.


Subject Australian policy thinking on India. Significance A blueprint submitted to the Australian government in April, titled 'An India Economic Strategy to 2035', calls for increased export shipments and investment in India through to 2035 and a closer strategic and diplomatic relationship. Impacts Economic relations will evolve slowly, as India is still developing a business structure attractive to foreign investment. Talks on a free trade agreement are unlikely to progress until India agrees to lower market barriers, especially high tariffs. India’s 700,000-strong diaspora in Australia will play a long-term role in connecting markets in the two countries.


Subject Implications of the USMCA. Significance Mexico’s Senate on December 12 ratified changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade (USMCA), agreed on December 10. Several important changes were signed by the three governments in Mexico City, altering the original agreement signed in November 2018. Mexico now awaits ratification of the final deal in Washington and Ottawa. If enacted, the accord will replace NAFTA, which has determined the rules of trade among the countries since 1994. Impacts What was initially framed as a political victory for AMLO may lose lustre as details emerge on the concessions granted by his government. Long-term auto industry investments in Mexico may suffer due to new stipulations on issues such as regional content and wages. After the USMCA is formally enacted, Trump will probably focus on seeking to reduce the US trade deficit with China.


Headline CHINA: Free trade zones push liberalisation forward


Subject Outlook for free trade zones. Significance Recent data shows a steady expansion of activity in free trade zones (FTZs) over the past five years, while many firms operating in such zones are planning to expand. This highlights their potential to be a key driver of foreign trade. Impacts A number of new infrastructure projects will drive an expansion of FTZ activity nationwide. FTZ activity will continue to be concentrated in the GAM. FTZs will not offset the economic impact of uncertainty over fiscal reform.


Subject The rise in global house prices. Significance In the first quarter of 2015, the global house price index, aggregating prices in 52 countries, was at about the same level as in early 2007, according to IMF data. This recovery has occurred in a period of wage gains in most emerging markets (EMs), but little or no growth in household income across most advanced economies. Living costs excluding housing have stagnated and interest rates have been exceptionally low. Yet US interest rates are rising now and global prices are unlikely to keep falling beyond 2016, while many EMs have slumped into recession. As households are hit by more adverse trends, property markets and the related sectors will be affected. Impacts The EM house price boom will be curbed by slowing income growth and weaker economic prospects. High house-prices-to-household-income ratios and household debt might require the introduction of macroprudential tools. The US housing market will stay affordable compared to its long-term average and to Europe's.


Subject Moves to reduce local protectionism. Significance The government has embarked on an ambitious plan to create a more unified national market. At its heart are new measures that restrict the ability of local governments to offer investment incentives to companies operating in their jurisdictions. These reforms will increase costs and reduce profitability for companies, fatally for some, but benefit the national economy in the long term by increasing competition and efficiency. However, the measures have met resistance from local governments. Finance ministry officials admit that they will miss their targets for implementation. Impacts 'Free trade zones' (FTZs) modelled on Shanghai will retain considerable autonomy; other 'development zones' look likely to be curtailed. Investment decisions will become easier as local government preferential policies become more transparent. A more unified national market will lead to larger Chinese firms better able to compete against multinationals. The closure of small, inefficient firms should aid efforts to limit pollution. Successful implementation will smooth bilateral investment treaty negotiations with Brussels and Washington.


Subject African free trade. Significance Six countries are yet to sign the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), including the continent’s largest economy Nigeria. While the impact of its absence will not be felt in the short term, existing trading partners will want to maintain a strong foothold in the country and its projected market of 350 million consumers by 2050. Impacts The AfCFTA could prompt long-term welfare gains worth 16.1 billion dollars, compared with 4.1 billion dollars in lost tariff revenue. The AfCFTA's economic effects may be milder, driving GDP and employment increases of just 0.97% and 1.17% respectively in the long term. Nigeria’s Dangote group could see sales increase five-fold by 2030, underscoring the potential benefits of AfCFTA to regional manufacturers.


Subject Prospects for East Asia in the fourth quarter of 2015. Significance China's economy is the critical short- and long-term preoccupation, inside and outside the country. Japan's government has lost popularity on account of controversial defence reforms. Another crisis on the Korean peninsula has been defused, and Taiwan will soon have a new president.


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-200
Author(s):  
Jose Caraballo-Cueto

Purpose The Dominican trade deficit represents almost 16 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and is insufficiently counteracted by tourism and remittances; not even a high devaluation closed the imbalance. Eighty per cent of the exports are from free trade zones. These facts reflect their low domestic entrepreneurial capacity. The purpose of this study is to critically evaluate the Dominican economic model. Design/methodology/approach The author motivates the discussion with descriptive statistics and then applies multiple time-series regressions at the macro level and at the industry level. Findings The attraction of foreign firms appears to substitute, and not complement, the building of local capacity. Regressions show that a GDP growth of 5 per cent does not decrease the high unemployment rate. Originality/value Using new Okun’s equations, it is concluded that sectors dominated by local producers and improvements in the trade balance better impact the unemployment. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that characterizes the Dominican economy as a “successful story”.


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