Hungary's Fidesz may change strategy vs Jobbik

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Change Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Eu And Us ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
First Time

Subject The threat to ruling Fidesz from radical Jobbik. Significance With its popularity plummeting and competition increasing from left and right, Fidesz's chances of maintaining parliamentary dominance after 2018 seem much eroded, although a growing economy could benefit it. Its by-election defeat in April to far-right Jobbik, albeit by only 261 votes, carries symbolic weight. For the first time, the radical party won not only a single-member constituency rather than a party-list seat, but also one outside its traditional stronghold of eastern Hungary. Jobbik could become a direct electoral threat to the party in power. Impacts If Fidesz allied with far-right Jobbik, it would further tarnish its image abroad, adding fuel to already tense EU and US relations. Jobbik will further its attempts to moderate its ideology to widen its electoral base. Jobbik may start to pick up votes from both left- and right-wing parties.

Spanish government should survive its full term

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Space ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance However, as opinion polls show that contending left- and right-wing party blocs are closer in terms of voting intentions, the government's performance and ability to collaborate with smaller parties remain key to the left’s ability to return for another term in office. Impacts Tight electoral competition between left and right points to a couple of years of political uncertainty for international investors. In the event of an early election, the most plausible scenario is a coalition of the centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox. The People's Party’s move further to the right could open space for the liberal Ciudadanos party to reclaim centrist support.

Austrian centre-right coalition faces difficult future

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.

Right-wing coalition would test Austria’s stability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Benefits ◽  
Government Role ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Border Controls

Significance Kurz has said he wants a coalition agreement by the end of the month -- probably with the far-right populist Freedom Party (FPOe). Impacts Austria is likely to push for EU reforms on migration, border controls and social welfare benefits. The SPOe is struggling to find a niche in the party system and could face a long spell in opposition. The FPOe's rise to a potential government role will attract unwanted international attention. The political elite could be rejuvenated as younger Kurz supporters are promoted to top jobs in ministries and parliament.

Israeli prime minister may be near the end of the road

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Road ◽  
Criminal Charges ◽  
First Time

Significance This is the first time a sitting premier has faced criminal charges. The decision has been looming for several months and comes as the country risks heading towards a third election in the space of a year, absent a last-minute deal to form a coalition. Impacts Netanyahu’s removal would not lead to immediate policy changes, which are more dependent on the eventual composition of the next coalition. If Netanyahu survives, the next election will be defined by polarising claims of a conspiracy against him. Right-wing political leaders’ relationship with the judiciary and police will further sour.

scholarly journals A Strange Affair: The 2002 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France

2002 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Cole
Keyword(s):  
Electric Shock ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Fifth Republic ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Mode Of Operation ◽  
Traditional Mode ◽  
Left And Right

The 2002 Elections In France Were A Gripping Drama Unfolding in four acts. Each act has to be understood as part of a whole, as each election was ultimately dependent upon the results of the first round of the presidential election on 21 April. However untypical in the context of Fifth Republican history, the first round of the presidential election strongly inf luenced the peculiar course of the subsequent contests. The outcome of the first election on the 21 April – at which the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen won through to the second ballot against Jacques Chirac, narrowly distancing the outgoing premier Lionel Jospin – created an electric shock which reverberated around the streets of Paris and other French cities and sparked a civic mobilization without parallel since May '68. The end-result of this exceptional republican mobilization was to secure the easy (initially rather unexpected) re-election of Chirac as president at the second round two weeks later. The election of 5 May was unlike a typical second-round election. Rather than a bipolar contest pitting left and right over a choice of future governmental orientations, it was a plebiscite in favour of democracy (hence Chirac) against the far-right (Le Pen). Chirac was re-elected overwhelmingly as president, supported by at least as many leftwing as right-wing voters. This enforced plebiscite against the extreme right allowed a resurgent Jacques Chirac to claim a renewed presidential authority. At the parliamentary election of 9 and 16 June, the Fifth Republic reverted to a more traditional mode of operation, as a new ‘presidential party’, informally launched just weeks before the elections, obtained a large overall majority of seats to ‘support the President’ in time-honoured Fifth Republican tradition.

Spain’s far right will hold the balance of power

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
National Government ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Policy Outcome ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Tax Cuts

Subject Spain's far-right party. Significance In Spain, the two mainstream centre-right parties see the far-right Vox party as an opportunity rather than a hindrance. The People’s Party (PP) and Ciudadanos co-rule the regional government in Andalusia, with support from Vox. If this governing arrangement proves stable and effective, it could represent the launchpad for Spain’s three right-wing parties to form the next national government. Impacts The consensus among centre-right parties over tax cuts suggests that these will be a central policy outcome of their collaboration. The prospect of continuous political instability will discourage investment in Spain. A right-wing government will see a deterioration in relations between Spain and Catalonia.

Belgium likely to focus on green and tax policies

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Probable Outcome ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Slow Growing

Subject Belgium's elections. Significance Belgium's federal elections will take place on May 26. With polls forecasting Flanders' nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) to emerge as the largest party, a right-wing coalition is the most probable outcome. However, protracted coalition talks are inevitable and will worsen the policy inertia ongoing since December. Impacts Belgium is unlikely to meet its NATO defence spending obligations as all possible coalitions will have other spending priorities. Belgium's caretaker government may still be in place on October 31, limiting its abilities to respond to Brexit-related issues. Strong results for the N-VA may affect the degree to which Belgium adheres to the UN migration pact. The implementation of climate taxes combined with a slowing economy may increase the scope for protest marches. Belgium must wait for a newly elected government to use its own investments and lower taxes to boost the country's slow-growing economy.

Far-right party is reshuffling Dutch populism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
National Level ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Right Wing Populism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Islamic Party

Subject Dutch right-wing populism. Significance The Netherlands' newest far-right party, Forum for Democracy (FvD), won the provincial elections on March 20, receiving almost 15% of the vote. The party’s support is expected to grow, and it joins the anti-Islamic Party for Freedom (PVV) as the Netherlands' second major far-right party. Impacts Support for far-right parties will increase pressure on the government to implement populist ideas, especially in cultural affairs. Centrist parties in the European Conservative and Reformist group may try to block the FvD’s admission after the European elections. Policymaking at the national level will become increasingly difficult.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

Portugal is no longer immune from the far right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Identity ◽  
Popular Party

Significance Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, finished third in Portugal’s presidential election in January with 12% of the vote. Most polls now suggest that it is the third most popular party in Portugal. Chega’s core identity centres around its anti-establishment views, as well as hostility towards minority groups, in particular the Roma community. Impacts Local elections in October will be a stronger barometer of Chega’s appeal in Portugal than the presidential election. If Chega continues to expand its support, Portugal’s other right-wing parties could adopt some of its views and rhetoric. Chega founder Ventura’s association with Benfica football club could damage his appeal in the north, where arch-rival Porto dominates. Like other far-right parties, Chega could transition from advocating neoliberalism to more popular economic positions over time.

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