Re-election advances in Honduras, Dominican Republic

Significance In April, both Honduras and the Dominican Republic moved to introduce constitutional reforms that would allow presidential re-election. This is controversial in both countries but particularly so in Honduras, where a similar proposal in 2009 led to a military coup and a prolonged period of diplomatic isolation. Impacts Political attention in Honduras is now set to focus on constitutional reform, potentially undermining efforts to crack down on violence. Opposition to the reform may bring protests and strikes in Honduras, weighing on business productivity. In the Dominican Republic, the reform would allow incumbent President Danilo Medina to run again when his term finishes in 2016.

Significance The debate over constitutional reform will be enlivened by the upcoming election of a constituent convention in Chile on the same day as the Peruvian elections. Impacts Constitutional change may become a banner for the left elsewhere in Latin America. Future constitutional reforms may reconsider the status of indigenous communities in the Amazon. Workers’ rights, include labour stability, may be strengthened.


Significance Renzi's government will fight two existential battles in the coming weeks: winning the constitutional reform referendum on December 4, and obtaining from the Commission the necessary fiscal flexibility to implement the 2017 budget and avoid an excessive deficit procedure. Impacts A resignation by Renzi would probably lead to political chaos as there is no obvious alternative to him. Renzi's PD is divided over the proposed constitutional reforms and may split in case of a 'no' vote in the referendum. Forming a national unity or technocratic government in case of a 'no' vote may be impossible owing to M5S's unwillingness to compromise. The centre-right is fragmented and no political leader is emerging to fill the void left by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.


Significance Medina's re-election attempt follows a constitutional reform in 2015 that allows him to stand for a second consecutive term. Although the reform was contested, he had sufficient support to pass it and it looks increasingly likely to translate into a second electoral victory for Medina and his ruling Dominican Liberation Party (Partido de la Liberacion Dominicana, PLD). Impacts Heightened political instability in Haiti could have an impact on the Dominican Republic in terms of migration and security. A landslide re-election would strengthen Medina and reduce the leverage of the opposition PRD, which currently supports him. The split between the PRD and its splinter PRM faction looks permanent following Abinader's decision to run a separate election campaign.


Subject The government of President Juan Orlando Hernandez faces major challenges. Significance Pressure has been growing on President Juan Orlando Hernandez as a result of a corruption scandal and potential constitutional reform. Even if he is not forced to accede to calls for his resignation, political weakness may force him to make deals with his opponents. Impacts Continuing protests over corruption will erode the legitimacy of the government. The government will appear increasingly open to the possibility of an international anti-corruption body. Constitutional reforms offer potential for deals to be struck across the political spectrum.


Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.


Significance The 7.2-magnitude earthquake caused widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure. The disaster comes amid political turmoil, following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise last month, and threatens to compound pre-existing socioeconomic challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, surging crime rates, and fuel shortages in some areas. Impacts The Dominican Republic is sending aid, but will also increase security along its border to prevent increased migration. Gangs will seek to extort humanitarian groups or siphon off relief supplies to sell on the black market. Henry’s increased reliance on external assistance could affect trust in his administration, especially if elections are delayed too long.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Oleg Yu. Boldyrev ◽  

The seriousness of the flaws in the 1993 Constitution of Russian Federation is a weighty argument in favor of its reform. However, it is important to answer the question whether the constitutional reform eliminated the main defects of the existing Constitution. The article shows that the Law on the amendment to the Constitution of the Russian Federation of March 14, 2020 No. 1-FKZ does not provide solutions to the most pressing problems, including those that justified its adoption, and, in addition, creates new problems and risks. Accordingly, the relevance of further constitutional reforms remains. A number of proposals have been formulated concerning their directions and forms.


Significance One is the Dominican Republic’s controversial plan to build a border ‘wall’, to halt undocumented migration. Another is the Haitian authorities’ recent construction of an irrigation canal just within the Haitian side of the border. Protests and border clashes are likely to intensify over the coming months. Impacts Increased border security will drive up demand for, and the cost of, cross-border smuggling, worsening insecurity. Effective border policing may foster short-term labour shortages in the Dominican Republic. Demands for vaccination evidence before crossing the border will probably prompt a surge in black-market vaccination certificates.


Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.


Significance If the referendum passes, it will lead to significant changes to the political system, including new executive posts, the devolution of more national revenues to county governments and measures to ensure more women are elected to parliament. Impacts Fully implementing the BBI’s wide-ranging reforms may take years, and if mishandled could delay the 2022 elections. The proposals will significantly increase the cost of government, which in turn will exacerbate the shrinking fiscal space. An enlarged executive encompassing a broader range of leaders may boost political stability, but it will likely also aggravate graft.


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