Algerian efforts to reduce imports lack conviction

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Subject The car import debate and dynamics of the social contract. Significance A longstanding weakness of the Algerian economy has been its overdependence on oil and gas for income, and on imports for consumption. The risks of this dependence were exposed when oil prices halved in the final quarter of 2014. The government has responded by trying to revive investment in both the oil and non-oil economy, and by seeking to curb imports. One important aspect of this latter policy -- new restrictions on car imports -- has sparked significant public debate and raised questions about the government's competence and political will. Impacts If the oil price sustains its recent rally to 60-65 dollars per barrel, the government will have some time to adjust. It would also allow the political elite to maintain the current balance of power. Algeria will not close its markets to foreign imports so long as it continues to seek WTO membership.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Election reinforces the regime’s control of Algeria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Liberation Front ◽  
The Government

Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.

Belarus faces oil price and COVID-19 shocks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum Product ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The Government

Significance Reduced global demand due to COVID-19 and the collapse of OPEC+ output caps have driven prices under 40 dollars per barrel. That does not benefit Belarus, as its petroleum product exports have also fallen in value. After months of arguments about oil prices, President Alexander Lukashenka says he has secured a pledge of financial relief from Russia, but Moscow has yet to confirm. Impacts Lukashenka's re-election would normally be routine, but this year it takes place in unfavourable external circumstances. If protests start to grow, the government can always impose restrictions attributed to COVID-19. US-EU attempts at closer engagement will be thwarted by Belarus's ultimate reliance on Russia. Belarus will replace Russian with Chinese loans but neither is a substitute for structural reforms.

Tanzania’s oil and gas sector faces mixed outlook

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Regulatory Uncertainty ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance However, years of delays, regulatory uncertainty and a lack of political will -- compounded more recently by depressed global oil prices and the global slowdown caused by COVID-19 -- have seen many projects stall. Impacts Marginal projects may suffer as oil companies assess their investment strategies amid depressed oil prices and a global economic slowdown. The complexity of doing business may prove a serious impediment to finalising long-term investments, especially under Magufuli. Sustained delays in developing extractives projects are likely to feature heavily in opposition election campaign talking points.

Economics of trickle-down corruption

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-102
Author(s):  
Guych Nuryyev ◽  
Charles Hickson
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
State Income ◽  
Rare Opportunity ◽  
Reduced State

Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the crude oil price crash of 2014 on corruption decentralisation. In a corrupt state, a significant decrease in the state revenue might lead to concentration of power in the hands of the political elite who try to maintain their income, or to a weakening of the elite’s control as the bureaucrats compete for bribes. Design/methodology/approach Crude oil price crash provides a rare opportunity to test the effect of reduced state revenue on corruption decentralisation. This study constructs a measure for corruption decentralisation and analyses how it is affected by state income in 18 resource-rich and corrupt states. Findings The empirical model suggests that there is a positive relationship between corruption decentralisation and state oil and gas revenue, implying that as the revenue decreases, political elite in the exporting countries manage to maintain their control over the bureaucrats. Originality/value The results are important for academics as well as for policymakers, as they allow adjustment of anti-corruption efforts based on the level of corruption decentralisation.

Social Representations of a Controversial Peace Agreement: Subjective Public Meanings of the GRP-MILF MOA

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-72
Author(s):  
Cristina Jayme Montiel ◽  
Judith M. de Guzman
Keyword(s):  
Social Representations ◽  
Local Level ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Meanings

Using social representations theory, we studied the social meanings of a controversial Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. In Study One, we describe the discursive content of the social debate by content analyzing articles from newspapers and selected websites. Study Two uses a survey to examine the fit between social representations of the political elite, as found in media, and the nonelite in Mindanao territories where the MOA was hotly contested. Study Three presents the social representations of the MOA at the local level through analysis of key informant interviews and archival data. Discriminant analysis on survey data shows that in general, the debate of political elites in media mirrors the contentions on-the-ground. However, the issue of constitutionality was only taken up by the political elite. Our findings suggest that the political stumble of the GRP-MILF peace process lay in a lack of procedural fairness and an on-the-ground participatory process acceptable to all antagonistic parties. However, the socially represented fair procedure is not about conventional democratic ways like using or not using a constitutional frame, but rather about pragmatic positioning and public consultations.

How are emotions about COVID-19 impacting society? The role of the political elite and grassroots activism

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommaso Gravante ◽  
Alice Poma
Keyword(s):  
Support Groups ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mutual Support ◽  
Grassroots Activism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of emotions in the polarization that emerged during the first months of the pandemic. So, the authors will analyze the social response of two opposing social actors: political elites that have minimized the risks of the pandemic and grassroots groups that have promoted mutual support for vulnerable people suffering from the various effects of the pandemic.Design/methodology/approachFor the analysis, the authors will primarily refer to Hochschild's proposal and the recent literature on emotions and protest. The method is to analyze official statements by politicians from the UK, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Spain and Italy and the social responses that have emerged from different mutual support groups and solidarity networks in those countries, as well as in Chile and Argentina.FindingsThe authors will show how the conflicting responses can exacerbate social polarization in our societies. This polarization goes beyond the political spectrum, and in some cases even social classes, and reaches into the realms of values, emotions and practices. The authors will also show how the response from grassroots activism makes it possible to overcome guilt, shame and other emotions of trauma, among other things.Originality/valueAn analysis of the emotional dimension of two opposing responses to the pandemic will show how these responses have a deep impact on society, ranging from demands for values and practices that legitimize a status quo, to discussing, breaking away from or overcoming social behavior based on individualism and social determinism.

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