Russian car market must wait for economy to improve

Subject The Russian car market. Significance The car industry has undergone enormous changes, with foreign companies at the forefront of the transformation. Foreign involvement has risen over the past decade as policies promoting localisation of production attracted foreign investment. However, Russia's economic slowdown has led to some companies -- most notably General Motors (GM) -- announcing a reduction in their Russian operations. Over the last few months, other major Western brands have also reduced production in Russia. Russia's bleak economic prospects may cause other companies to replicate GM's policies, as a slowdown in consumer spending could cause the market to shrink further. Impacts Some manufacturers' decisions to halt production in Russia will cause some local unemployment. However, volumes of foreign production in Russia's will remain high -- companies that stay may benefit from enhanced market share. Some companies have placed Russia at the centre of their wider corporate strategies and will be reluctant to leave.

Subject Economy update. Significance The Egyptian pound was one of the best-performing currencies among emerging markets in 2019, and the rising trend has continued into 2020, on the back of strong inflows of tourism revenue, remittances and both direct and indirect foreign investment. Impacts Currency appreciation will reduce the cost of imports as well as headline consumer inflation; this could stimulate higher consumer spending. External debt has risen rapidly in the past few years, but a strong pound is helping to decrease it as a proportion of GDP. Cuts in domestic interest rates will reduce yields for foreign portfolio investors, but Egypt still offers relatively attractive returns.


Significance At least in the EU’s eleven eastern member states (EU-11), there has been significant if slow progress in lifting standards of living across the board in the past decade. However, progress is uneven and the impact of the economic slowdown due to lockdowns in the past year may well have affected disproportionately already poorer regions. Impacts Some governments, notably Hungary’s, will put political loyalty above need in directing recovery funds to the localities. People in ‘left-behind’ regions may seek a better life in relatively prosperous capital cities or abroad. There is scope for countries and regions to learn from each other given clear cases of significant development in the past decade.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Krause ◽  
◽  
Nadiya Golda ◽  
Iryna Pinyak ◽  
◽  
...  

The engineering industry, including the automotive industry, belongs to the strategic branches of the country’s economy and to a large extent determines the level of development. The Chinese automobile industry dates back to 1953, and the first automobile factory, the First Automobile Works (FAW), was started in Beijing. Over the next few years, several more car factories were established in Nanjing, Khanhai, Jinan and Beijing. The requirements of funds, technologies and automotive modernization stimulated the attraction of external investment. A number of restrictive measures have been adopted to curb external competition, reduce car imports and attract innovative technologies, including high tariff and non-tariff barriers, screening, and restrictions on foreign capital, Limiting market share to foreign companies. When signing the joint-venture agreement, the Chinese side insisted on technology transfer and subordination to the Chinese leadership. Volkswagen first built a car factory in China. Today almost every progressive car company is represented in the Chinese car market, such as Mercedes-Bens, Ford, General Motors, Suzuki, Daihatsu, Honda, Subaru, Citreon, Toyota. Most of them have partnerships with one of China’s top three car manufacturers. American, European, and Japanese automakers see China as a promising market as demand for vehicles in the US and Europe shrinks. To the Chinese automobile market, the cars are made according to the requirements of the local consumer – conservative, with high-quality design, low and middle price segment. Since 2009, foreign automobile companies have accounted for 85% of the Chinese car market. About 60% of the cars sold in China are locally produced. However, China’s automobile industry is highly fragmented and mostly consists of small companies that produce a small range of components. Such production is labour-intensive with relatively low use of advanced technologies compared to car manufacturers in developed countries, often lacking economies of scale. Research expenditure accounts for a large part of the expenditure structure. Most companies produce low-tech parts with significant import presence.


Significance They will probably discuss the final draft of the peace agreement between the two main rival political blocs: the pro-Islamist Libya Dawn bloc led by the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) parliament, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) supported by the anti-Islamist Dignity bloc led by General Khalifa Haftar. Efforts to reach agreement on creating a single government -- the Government of National Accord (GNA) -- have been bulding over the past year. This has stoked rejectionists and spoilers on both sides, although an increase in local ceasefire initiatives has increased the prospects of a deal. Impacts Any new government would likely move quickly to sign deals with foreign companies on construction, electricity and water provision. However, it would likely be split between those preferring to work with European and Turkish or US and UK companies. Fragmentation and the need to meet urgent political deadlines, such as on the constitution, will hamper the GNA's effectiveness.


Subject Iran investment outlook. Significance Foreign investment in Iran's non-oil sector is poised for growth following the nuclear deal announced with world powers on July 14. If implemented successfully the agreement will see Iran reintegrated into the world financial system, some 100 billion dollars of its foreign assets unfrozen and US sanctions removed from firms from third countries that trade with it. While foreign companies and investors will move cautiously, they will begin exploring a market that has been performing well below potential for years. Impacts European companies will be in pole position to re-enter the Iranian market. Main non-oil and non-gas sectors of investor interest will include healthcare, financial services, telecoms, consumer goods and transport. Government's strong economic team will encourage investor confidence.


Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance The new administration has eliminated export taxes on mining, as part of its efforts to lure foreign investment to revive a stagnant economy. Mining export taxes were set at 5-10% over the past 14 years, and their removal will cost the government some 220 million dollars annually. Impacts Low global metals prices will hinder short-term efforts to boost mining investment. Environmental concerns will continue to drive hostility to mining projects. Lithium will drive mining growth in the near term.


Significance However, it does not resolve the state of limbo in which Mongolia’s domestic politics, international relations and economic development has remained for the past several years. Prime Minister U Khurelsukh will consolidate his dominance of the MPP, largely continuing past policies. Impacts Legal uncertainties and corruption inquiries surrounding Oyu Tolgoi and other mining projects will negatively affect foreign investment. There will be Chinese pressure, and serious Mongolian consideration, of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Factional conflicts within the main opposition party may undermine Battulga’s hope for re-election as president next year. Climate change will put increasing pressure on Mongolia’s ecology and economy.


Significance Soon after taking office, President Mauricio Macri announced a "rain of new investments" from foreign companies attracted by the business-friendly tone set by his administration. Despite key economic policy measures, such as the removal of foreign exchange controls, the unfreezing of utilities tariffs and the agreement with holdout creditors, there have been no signs of significant medium- or long-term foreign investment inflows, raising doubts over Macri's promise of an economic rebound in the second half. Impacts Expansionary measures will make it harder to achieve fiscal goals, especially as tax collection is rising at rates well below inflation. While the downturn may ease inflation, the temptation to use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor would worsen competitiveness problems. The government faces a difficult dilemma: expansionary measures will help it in mid-term elections, but delay economic stabilisation.


Subject The St Petersburg economic forum. Significance Digital technologies were discussed as Russia's economic future at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 1-3, but the bulk of commercial deals concerned the mainstay sector, oil and gas. The presence of US and other foreign companies bolstered the event's political message that Russia was not isolated despite Western sanctions. Impacts Despite greater optimism, modest economic recovery is vulnerable to oil price volatility. EU and especially US sanctions seem less likely to fall away than before, impeding foreign investment. Laws allowing the state to control the cyber sphere may dampen some investors' interest in digital sector investment.


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