Indonesia's new cabinet gives modest boost to economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Precipitous Decline ◽  
Resource Sector

Significance In a long-awaited move to stimulate the economy and restore investor confidence, Jokowi replaced five ministers and reassigned one. The reshuffle is not surprising given Indonesia's sub-par economic performance (4.7% GDP growth in the second quarter and 4.6% in the first); a precipitous decline of its currency (the rupiah has hit a 15-year low); a stalled infrastructure drive; and the declining popularity of the president. Impacts Central government infrastructure spending is likely to rise, boosting growth by late 2015 and early 2016. Vested interests within government will impede Jokowi's attempt to curb corruption, but future scandals will erode his popularity. Prospects for overhauling military-executive ties are grim despite the military's links to illicit activities in the resource sector.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

Slower Chile growth will bring electoral challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower Middle Class ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Chile's economic outlook. Significance On July 23, in an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its forecast for economic growth this year in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.4% to 0.6%, due principally to a sharp cut for Brazil. By contrast, the reduction for Chile, from 3.4% to 3.2%, was small but may err on the side of optimism. Impacts Dependence on copper remains a key challenge for Chile as regards both GDP growth and fiscal revenues. Slower growth particularly worries the new lower-middle class, eager for further gains in living standards. In the foreseeable future, Chile’s economic performance will likely be constrained by external conditions.

India's GDP rebase may boost investor confidence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Slow Growth ◽  
National Income ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Manufacturing Data

Subject GDP rebase and its impact on policy. Significance The Central Statistical Organisation's (CSO) new estimates of national income using the April 2011-March 2012 fiscal as the base year suggest that GDP in 2013-14 grew at 6.9%. This compares with growth of 5.0% computed on the basis of the earlier National Accounts series with 2004-05 as base. Further, on the new estimates, GDP growth rose from 5.1% to 6.9% between 2012-13 and 2013-14, compared with 4.8% to 5.0% based on the earlier series, making 2013-14 a year of robust recovery rather than persisting slow growth. Impacts Revision of manufacturing data could help Modi's 'Make in India' campaign, provided it is infused with policy substance. The Congress's leadership vacuum will prevent the party from harnessing the political benefits of the rebase. The government's fiscal consolidation target for 2014-15 could now be easier to achieve.

Indonesian reform plans may boost economy longer-term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence

Subject Jokowi's reform packages. Significance President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo last week announced the first of three economic packages designed to re-invigorate the economy and attract foreign investment. The remaining two packages will be announced later this month and in November respectively. Similar packages have been devised by past administrations, but to little effect. To gain investor confidence, Jokowi will need to specify how his administration intends to implement its plans. Impacts Financial market volatility will continue until US monetary policy begins to normalise (probably no earlier than December). The power balance in Jokowi's cabinet militates against institutional reform. Policies to boost infrastructure development promise longer-term gain, but little boost to 2015 GDP growth.

Philippines jobs and wages issues could hit government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
Land Disputes ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government

Subject Economic policy challenges facing the government. Significance President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration soon enters its eleventh month. The president campaigned on greater infrastructure investment and more equitably spread economic growth, among other pledges. So far, most macroeconomic indicators are either holding steady or improving; early worries about political disruption, underpinned by a weakening stock market and exchange rate, have also eased. Yet inflation and unemployment numbers are rising, and are highlighting problems in the agricultural sector. Impacts Interest rate increases could be on the horizon. The legislature’s proposal for a tax amnesty is unlikely to prosper. Failure to implement tax reforms would undermine business and investor confidence. Failure to develop infrastructure effectively, such as due to land disputes, could hit Philippine economic performance. Rising public calls to focus on the economy over the ‘drugs war’ are possible, putting pressure on Duterte politically.

Prospects for Mexico to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Limited Space ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject Prospects to end-2019. Significance As President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) enters his sixth month in power, policy uncertainty, escalating tensions with the United States and a weakening oil sector are all weighing on Mexico’s economic performance. Investor confidence is waning while fiscal constraints provide very limited space to boost growth.

New internal hurdles deepen Indonesia's growth strain

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Growth Strain ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type

Subject Outlook for growth and reform in Indonesia. Significance Indonesia's economic performance over the last year has been a cause for concern for President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, who had initially targeted 7% growth during his term. The economy is now struggling to achieve growth above 5%. Impacts Indonesia will lose to competitors such as Vietnam that have zero-tariff access to the world's largest markets. Key infrastructure projects will be stalled or delayed, frustrating foreign partners. This year is likely to see GDP growth of 5.0-5.2%.

Governance and price woes mar Africa's diamond outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Diamonds ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
De Beers ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Jewelry Industry ◽  
Cutting Production

Subject Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa's diamond sector. Significance Prices for rough diamonds fell 18% in the year to November 2015, driven in large part by weakening consumer demand in China. Producers such as De Beers are taking steps to support prices, including cutting production and establishing new marketing initiatives. Further details will likely emerge at the Jewelry Industry Summit taking place in New York in March. Impacts Soft diamond prices will encourage Botswana to hasten implementation of its Economic Stimulus Programme aimed at sustaining GDP growth. Angola is unlikely to push for greater transparency in the global diamond trade given the vested interests of powerful military figures. Producers will attempt to control the manufacture of synthetic gems to prevent undercutting of demand for natural diamonds.

Domestic factors will weigh on Central Europe’s autos

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Industry ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central Europe’s car industry. Significance The uncertainty surrounding US foreign trade policy has created headwinds to growth for Central Europe (CE) and its automotive sector, even though CE auto exports are highly concentrated on the EU, and CE has only limited trade exposure to the United States. Business and consumer confidence is patchy among some of the fastest-growing economies in the region, such as Poland. Impacts CE auto production will be an important driver of economic growth in 2018-19; Slovakia has the highest per capita auto production globally. Robust GDP growth should help partly offset declines in business or investor confidence in the short term. However, the worsening price competitiveness of the car industry will be a concern.

Real GDP growth will be slower in Georgia in 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Important Trading Partner ◽  
Remittance Flows

Subject Worsening economic prospects in 2015. Significance Georgia has already started to be affected by the substantial deterioration in Russia's economic performance and the steep depreciation of the ruble against major currencies, particularly in the final quarter of 2014. Russia became Georgia's third-most-important trading partner in 2014, and remittance flows from Russia are an important source of foreign exchange. Currencies in the Caucasus and Central Asia have faced depreciation pressures, with Turkmenistan forced to devalue its currency on January 1, followed by Azerbaijan on February 21. Impacts Domestic demand will fall this year, as remittance flows weaken. The devaluation of Azerbaijan's manat in late February will have a negative impact on exports, as it is Georgia's top export market. If Western sanctions against Russia are not lifted in July, as expected, this will worsen the outlook for the Georgian economy.

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