Duda’s second term will entrench PiS hold on Poland

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Very High

Significance The stakes in Poland’s presidential election were very high and concerned mostly who should wield the presidency’s veto powers. If the opposition had prevailed, it would have presented a potentially huge legislative barrier to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) and could have triggered a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Continuing the PiS judicial overhaul will spark further clashes between Warsaw and Brussels and between PiS and the opposition. PiS may be expected to overhaul non-state institutions, such as the private media, universities and NGOs. PiS dominance, with the Sejm and presidency on its side, will deepen Poland’s gradual Orbanisation.

Opposition weakness will help Polish ruling coalition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Independent State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Party Control ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Law ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance At the beginning of 2021, the ZP coalition of the Law and Justice (PiS), Accord and United Poland (SP) parties is stable, but not as strong as it has been in previous years. This weakening in the PiS-led government’s condition is due to many factors, among which the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important. Impacts The process will continue of subordinating any independent state institutions still left to party control. PiS will take further, similar steps regarding the media, academia and NGOs. After months of pandemic lockdown, the state of the economy is stable if not ideal, and will not lead to early elections.

All factors point to left-right coalition in Portugal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject The outlook for the October 4 parliamentary election. Significance The October 4 parliamentary election will be the first since Portugal exited its euro-area/IMF bailout. The poll launches a Portuguese electoral cycle which includes the January 2016 presidential election, and a series of parliamentary elections in euro-area post-bailout states, with Spain and Ireland to follow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race between the governing two-party centre-right alliance and the main opposition Socialists (PS), but -- in contrast to other bailout states -- no breakthrough by any new or radical force. Impacts Given the closeness of parties' opinion poll standings, the campaign period could be decisive. Whatever its make-up, the next government is likely to be committed to fiscal consolidation and Portugal's post-bailout obligations. An election win for Portugal's governing centre-right would be a pre-election fillip for its counterpart in Spain.

Polish teachers’ strike will not damage ruling party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education Policy ◽  
Education Reform ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Wage Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Teachers Union ◽  
Government Education ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The strike's impact on the pre-election situation. Significance The teachers’ strike has continued for a third week. With Stanislaw Broniarz, the head of the Polish Teachers’ Union and the strike organiser, saying the pay claim is unchanged, and the Law and Justice (PiS) government not prepared to meet the demands, negotiations are stalemated. Impacts The opposition will exploit government education policy to its advantage in the upcoming parliamentary election campaign. Teachers are unlikely to obtain their 30% wage increase, leading to departures from the profession. Regardless of PiS strategy, education reform is much needed but will be difficult, mostly due to political polarisation.

Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

Poll win will boost premier of Azerbaijan secession

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Member State ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Self ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Politics

Subject The parliamentary election in Nagorno-Karabakh. Significance The newly elected 33-seat legislature in the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR, which no UN member state recognises as independent) now comprises five political parties and blocs, with the prime minister's party garnering slightly fewer than half the seats. With a new parliamentary coalition to be formed, positioning will now begin for the presidential election NKR will hold in 2017, as the incumbent is in his second and final term. Impacts The strong showing of the premier's party will bolster his bid to run as Karabakh's next president in two years. However, new parties in parliament may challenge the incumbent leadership, and coalition politics may prove testy. Armenia, which negotiates for Karabakh in peace talks with Azerbaijan, may seek to strengthen its influence in Stepanakert.

Taiwan election portends lasting anti-China turn

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The United States ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
High Skill

Significance Tsai received the highest number of votes ever cast in a Taiwanese presidential election. Her party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), retained its majority in a parliamentary election the same day. Impacts Tsai has a renewed mandate to introduce economic reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries. The United States and Japan will be high foreign policy priorities for Tsai; Washington in particular will reciprocate. Elevated China-US rivalry will ensure that Taiwan will enjoy bipartisan support, and the support of the next US president.

Internal splits will hold back rising Polish far right

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Law ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Subject The rise of the far right in Poland. Significance The Law and Justice (PiS) government initially tried to work with far-right organisations to increase its own support. However, the recent political successes of the far-right Confederation coalition are making PiS see it as more and more of a threat. Impacts The political scene in Poland will become ever more polarised in coming years, with the far right benefiting the most. As PiS turns towards a more moderate, modernising conservatism, radicals will agitate against the government becoming too centrist. Incumbent Andrzej Duda has PiS backing for next May’s presidential election, which could reveal shifts in party strengths.

Bulgarian elections will not ease government formation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance While the presidential election is the scheduled five-yearly poll, the November parliamentary election comes about after elections in April and July failed to resolve political deadlock. Bulgaria is polarised around the personalities of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and incumbent President Rumen Radev. Impacts Rising COVID-19 infections and the lowest vaccination level in the EU create a context conducive to the search for quick fixes. The anti-Borisov protest wave is increasingly balanced out by polarisation around Radev’s alleged ambitions. A focus on the record of caretaker governments in charge since May will partially deflect scrutiny of Borisov’s eleven years in government.

Islamic hedging for pilgrimage funds: case of Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-341
Author(s):  
Rifki Ismal ◽  
Nurul Izzati Septiana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Risk Identify ◽  
Hajj Season ◽  
The Right ◽  
Very High

Purpose The demand for Saudi Arabian real (SAR) is very high in the pilgrimage (hajj) season while the authority, unfortunately, does not hedge the hajj funds. As such, the hajj funds are potentially exposed to exchange rate risk, which can impact the value of hajj funds and generate extra cost to the pilgrims. The purpose of this paper is to conduct simulations of Islamic hedging for pilgrimage funds to: mitigate and minimize exchange rate risk, identify and recommend the ideal time, amount and tenors of Islamic hedging for hajj funds, estimate cost saving by pursuing Islamic hedging and propose technical and general recommendations for the authority. Design/methodology/approach Forward transaction mechanism is adopted to compute Islamic forward between SAR and Rupiah (Indonesian currency) or IDR. Findings – based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Findings Based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Research limitations/implications The research suggests the authority to (and not to) hedge the hajj fund, depending on economic conditions and market indicators. Even though the assessment is for the Indonesian case, other countries maintaining hajj funds might also learn from this paper. Originality/value To the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first paper in Indonesia that attempts to simulate the optimal hedging of hajj funds.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

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