French missions abroad will strain army but continue

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Planning Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Military Planning ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Military

Subject France's military and police over-stretch. Significance With 34,000 troops engaged in operations, 10,000 of them abroad, France's military forces will be under severe strain in 2016. The police and gendarmerie workload has also increased, after two major terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 that presented a long-term challenge to domestic security. President Francois Hollande has modified the Military Planning Law to take the new security situation into account and boosted France's military effort. However, influential voices are raising concerns about sustainability and expressing doubts about the relevance of France's international stance and home security approach. Impacts The military top brass is likely to intensify pressure on the executive, to secure more means as the presidential election approaches. More than ever, the defence budget will rely on extra-budgetary resources, such as arms exports, especially of Rafale jet fighters. Defence and foreign policies are thus poised to become even more interconnected, with strong efforts to sell arms to India and the Gulf.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
General Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Major General

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.

Military to retain domestic security role in Guatemala

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Military ◽  
Focus Point

Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.

Thai palace politics portends long-term risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Criticism ◽  
Legal Controls ◽  
The Military

Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.

Army is a blunt tool for global counterterrorism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Blunt Tool ◽  
Issue Public ◽  
The Military ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Subject The implications of deploying troops domestically as a counter to terrorism. Significance In the aftermath of the attacks against the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, France deployed thousands of troops to patrol the streets and protect potential targets. The role of the military in domestic counterterrorism is a long-standing and controversial issue. Public pressure on decisionmakers to respond to terrorist attacks can be immense, yet the effectiveness of deploying the military domestically on a large scale is debatable. Impacts Large-scale troop deployments can have a negative effect on tourism. More visible patrols provide more targets for terrorists. They could also alienate those communities whose support is needed to combat extremism.

Islamic State defeat would bolster Libya's government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The City

Significance Although resistance will likely be fiercer in the centre of the city, particularly from ISG snipers and booby traps, the spokesman was confident that they would take control of the city within days. Impacts Removing ISG bases from Libya is likely to benefit Tunisia in the long term -- most terrorist attacks there were organised in Libya. However, the dispersal of experienced ISG fighters could see them spread into the Sahel and join other militant groups. This could mean an increase in terrorist attacks elsewhere in the region, especially more vulnerable states such as Mali and Niger.

Middle East jihadist splits will widen despite defeats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Hostile Attitude

Significance However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions. Impacts Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement. As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases. Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity. In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.

Nigerian north-east relief gains could be reversed

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Military

Significance Delivery of relief to 8.5 million people in north-eastern Nigeria is complicated by persistent insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the dependency of the aid community on military cooperation for access, alleged corruption and mismanagement by government agents and contractors, an uncertain domestic political situation and ambiguity about mid-term funding from international sources. These challenges have led to an enduring humanitarian disaster and the possibility of reversals on the regional security front. Impacts Political uncertainty due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor health will hamper national efforts on the humanitarian front. An unimproved humanitarian situation will complicate the military’s counter-insurgency campaign, and harm long-term security efforts. Ongoing corruption revelations, particularly within the military, could undermine security sector and federal executive relations. Renewed Niger Delta militancy and pro-Biafra separatism could distract the federal government's attention from the north-east.

Abu Dhabi seeks ‘smart power’ in the Horn of Africa

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Smart Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Facilities ◽  
The Military

Significance The move risks further exacerbating poor relations with Somalia. The UAE has a long-term commercial interest in the Somaliland port of Berbera, previously planned to include military facilities. However, the nature of Emirati engagement in the Horn of Africa is changing, as also reflected in the partial dismantling of the military base at Assab in Eritrea. Impacts The success of the UAE’s vaccination programme opens space for the export of vaccines to regional states to enhance its soft power. Emirati assets in the region may prove vulnerable to attacks by groups opposed to the UAE’s campaign against political Islam. In the post-Trump era, coercion of other regional countries to join the ‘Abraham Accords’ with Israel will be deprioritised.

Long-term security will elude Pakistan military courts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Spending ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Way

Significance A response to the deadly December 16 Peshawar terrorist attack, the legislation paves the way for re-establishing military courts to try suspected terrorists in an expeditious manner. Although all major political parties voted for the change, the idea of military courts amid civilian rule has generated bitter debate about their impact on democratic governance and efficacy in combating terrorism. Impacts Pakistan-India ties are likely to be damaged by the amendments that grant the military a legal cover to choose 'good' and 'bad' jihadis. However, Pakistan's ties with Washington could improve. Civilian finance is likely for the military courts, shrinking Islamabad's already inadequate development spending.

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