Brazil's local elections constrain national politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Business Elite ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
General Elections

Subject Local elections and national politics. Significance Interim President Michel Temer is impeded not only by his interim status but also by local elections due in October. Politicians may fear losing further electoral support if they side with Temer and his Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) if he is unable to tackle major problems in the short term, particularly unemployment. Impacts The business elite will side with Temer and the PMDB, but other parties will offer muted support if the economic crisis is not addressed. However, failure to ease the crisis could benefit the Workers' Party, which conversely stands to lose if Temer is successful. Parties will prioritise municipal elections over national issues to boost their position before the 2018 general elections.

Local elections may strain Tunisia's unity government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governance ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Election ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results

Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.

Mozambique’s FRELIMO will struggle to stem unrest

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Northern Province ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Private Sector Development

Significance Home to major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, the northern province has been beset by a spate of alleged Islamist militant attacks in recent weeks, with at least 40 people killed. While the FRELIMO government has recently trumpeted progress in the protracted peace talks with rebel movement RENAMO, worsening security problems in Cabo Delgado are threatening investments that are crucial to easing a persistent debt crisis. Impacts Private-sector development will be further hindered by high interest rates and unpaid government arrears. Cooperation between RENAMO and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) may increase ahead of the local elections. Cabo Delgado terrorism could overshadow RENAMO-linked insecurity in the short term.

South Africa's Ramaphosa faces reform hurdles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
General Elections

Significance Under President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC improved on its historic low of 53.91% in the 2016 local elections but fell short of its 62.15% tally in 2014's general elections. Meanwhile, the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) dropped from 22.23% to 20.77%, while the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) grew from 6.35% to 10.79%. Impacts Questions surrounding the electoral commission’s effectiveness will prompt public calls for greater funding and internal reform. Despite recent speculation, the prospect of Ramaphosa being ‘recalled’ by ANC members over the short term appears remote. Minority and coalition administrations could become the new reality at all levels of government over the medium-to-long term.

Mozambique juggles new interests and old problems

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Traditional Agriculture ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Debt Stress ◽  
Fiscal Risks

Subject Mozambique's new government. Significance President Filipe Nyusi on January 17 unveiled his first cabinet. The line-up marks a break with the administration of former President Armando Guebuza, but balances competing factions within the ruling FRELIMO party. The new government's main focus will be to turn offshore natural gas discoveries into liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Declines in FRELIMO's electoral support indicate pressure to demonstrate more inclusive benefits than has been the case with previous mega-projects. Impacts Lower prices for traditional (agriculture) and megaproject exports (coal, aluminium) will continue; last year exports fell by 8.4%. With mining under stress, companies may delay production expansion planned to take place after the completion of the Nacala railway. For the short term, fiscal risks are greater than debt stress -- particular given 2014 election-related spending.

Summer of crisis will drive Cuban migration

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Factor ◽  
Price Controls

Significance However, while US policies are a pull-factor for migrants, recent domestic problems also provide powerful reasons to leave Cuba, which has fallen into the worst economic crisis since the 1990s. Impacts Reversing the decline of domestic production will require a deepening of market reforms. However, short-term political concerns over rising discontent will encourage a return to price controls. That will rekindle the black market and undermine the credibility of long-term reform plans.

Coalition conflicts carry credibility costs in Chile

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for the coalition and the government's reform programme. Significance Seventeen months into its four-year term, the centre-left government of President Michelle Bachelet is deeply divided on the future of its reform plans, with the conflicts aggravated by sluggish growth and the administration's mounting unpopularity. There are signs that, looking ahead to October 2016 municipal elections and November 2017 general elections, the centre Christian Democrat Party (PDC) is starting to mark a distance from the government in a bid to appeal to voters alienated by the coalition's left wing. Impacts Infighting within the coalition will persist to the detriment of the government's credibility. For the 2016 municipal elections, the two wings of the coalition will probably field separate candidates. Uncertainty about the government's reform plans will hamper any acceleration of economic growth.

Prospects for free media in South Africa are bleak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Operating Officer ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Broadcaster ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
Nationalist Sentiment ◽  
Free Media

Significance The public broadcaster may appeal the ruling through the courts. Opposition parties have long bemoaned the dire state of the SABC, but recent controversial moves by Chief Operating Officer (COO) Hlaudi Motsoeneng are dividing the ANC itself. Impacts Social media will feature prominently in political parties' communication strategies ahead of municipal elections in August. Motsoeneng's ban on airing footage of demonstrations will not boost ANC support in protest-wrought Pretoria, where the DA has a clear lead. However, his requirement that 90% of music broadcast must be locally produced will stoke nationalist sentiment. Any major shift in SABC policy -- at least in the short term -- would have to be forced on the broadcaster through court orders.

Guinea unrest is not yet a threat to stability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Service Delivery ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Communities ◽  
The Military

Significance Recent demonstrations focused on the government’s failure to hold long-delayed municipal elections and voiced frustration with dysfunctional service delivery and deteriorating socio-economic conditions. As a result, President Alpha Conde has unveiled a new electoral code which could allow elections to be held in 2018. Impacts Conde’s grip on the military should ensure short-term stability. Modest growth is unlikely to lead to broader job creation and improvements in public service delivery. Protests in mining communities will persist over jobs and social services.

Saudi purge will quell critics but worry investors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Due Diligence ◽  
Saudi Population ◽  
Royal Family ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Business Elite ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows unprecedented arrests of senior princes, ministers and businesspeople in an anti-corruption purge beginning on November 4. The move has alarmed many in the ruling family and business elite, who had enjoyed relative impunity. However, it is so far broadly popular among a youthful Saudi population, who blame high-level corruption for economic problems and unemployment. Impacts A slowdown in investment will make it even harder to meet the economic targets of Vision 2030 and launch the ambitious NEOM project. The combined strengthening and politicisation of anti-corruption mechanisms will complicate performing due diligence about Saudi partners. Opposition within the royal family is likely to be strong but muted in the short term, with an atmosphere of febrile rumour.

Prospects for Brazil to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Brazil to end-2018. Significance A highly fragmented Brazil goes to the polls in October for its most uncertain general elections in decades. The vote will take place after several years of profound economic crisis and ever-widening corruption scandals that have destroyed the reputations of almost the entire political mainstream. The government of President Michel Temer, supported by 3% of the population and without leverage in Congress, has lost its ability to pursue any meaningful reform. The economy has frustrated hopes that it would pick up steam this year.

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