Guinea-Bissau deadlock will threaten fragile growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Court Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Impacts Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election. A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support. Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.

scholarly journals The anniversary of the military coup attempt in Turkey, July 15–16, 2016. The evolution of a political system

2017 ◽  
pp. 63-68
Author(s):  
Y. S. Kudryashova
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Coup Attempt

During the government of AK Party army leaders underprivileged to act as an exclusive guarantor preserving a secular regime in the country. The political balance between Secular and Islamite elites was essentially removed after Erdogan was elected Turkish President. Consistently toughening authoritarian regime of a ruling party deeply accounts for a military coup attempt and earlier periodically occurred disturbance especially among the young. The methods of a coup showed the profundity of a split and the lack of cohesion in Turkish armed forces. Erdogan made the best use of a coup attempt’s opportunities to concentrate all power in his hands and to consolidate a present regime. The mass support of the population during a coup attempt ensured opportunities for a fundamental reorganization of a political system. Revamped Constitution at most increases political powers of the President.

Epilogue

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Sopranzetti
Keyword(s):  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Taxi Drivers ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Motorcycle Taxi

This epilogue follows the life of the motorcycle taxi drivers and the political situation in Thailand since the 2014 military coup. In particular, it explores how the government of Prayth Cha-o-cha is attempting to cement the cracks that the Red Shirts mobilization revealed in 2010. Once again, the chapter argues, these plans will not be completely successful and will create unintended consequences that will expose new fragility in the power of state forces.

Rothschilds’ “Delicate and Difficult Task”: Reputation, Political Instability, and the Brazilian Rescue Loans of the 1890s

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
LEONARDO WELLER
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The London House of Rothschild depended on Brazil to maintain its reputation. This became a problem in the 1890s, when the Brazilian government almost defaulted on its sovereign debt after a change of regime had made politics unstable and economic policy unorthodox. This article shows how the relationship between the bank and the state developed to the point that Rothschilds was forced to rescue its client. Exposure enabled Brazil to implement policies designed to defend the regime at the expense of payment capacity without defaulting. The debt crisis ended only after the political situation stabilized toward the close of the century, when the bank pressured the government to tighten economic policy.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Weak economy compounds Moldovan political instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Substantial Influence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Government

Significance Economic weakness plus popular resentment of an elite seen as corrupt creates potential for mass demonstrations by pro- and anti-EU factions. Russia's importance as an economic partner is waning but it retains substantial influence through sympathetic political parties. A presidential election this October will be coloured by the unresolved bank fraud scandal, which has created a gulf between the political establishment and the electorate. Impacts Mainstream politicians will be find it hard to shake off perceived links to corruption. Prominent figures, whether oligarchs or pro-Russian politicians, may therefore avoid standing as presidential candidates. Lack of systemic reforms is a constraint on Moldova's ability to engage with EU economies. Domestic turmoil makes the government less likely to challenge Transnistria, which will remain a conduit for Russian pressure.

Greece’s political and economic prospects are fragile

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Privatisation Programme ◽  
European Stability Mechanism ◽  
The Government

Significance Thus ends eight years of economic policy oversight by the ECB, European Stability Mechanism and IMF, in exchange for some 275 billion euros (315 billion dollars) in soft loans. To obtain authorisation for the final disbursement, the government had to agree to what amounted to an unofficial fourth package of reforms without further financial assistance. Impacts Markets will demand a premium to purchase Greek sovereign debt until economic policy crystallises and the political situation clarifies. An increase in the minimum wage and the restoration of collective bargaining could revive private consumption. Private investment will depend on the availability of foreign direct investment for the privatisation programme.

Election rigging may erode Africa’s democratic gains

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Electoral Roll ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Common Strategy ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Electoral manipulation in Africa Significance In many emerging African democracies, authoritarian leaders who democratised only reluctantly have found new ways to manipulate elections to remain in power. Vote buying is a common strategy but so are more ‘hidden’ forms of manipulation such as gerrymandering or biasing the electoral roll in favour of ruling party supporters. Combined with the legitimate advantages of incumbency, this has contributed to a decline in opposition victories in African elections: to just above 10% in recent years from 35% in the early 1990s. Impacts Electoral manipulation undermines public support for the political system and is correlated with political instability and violence. The absence of meaningful political competition in many states means that elections do not promote more accountable or effective government. On average, authoritarian governments that hold elections can be expected to be more stable than those that do not.

Ruling party will look inwards ahead of Burundi polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political dynamics ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The government has launched talks with CNARED, a forum of opposition parties, to negotiate the return of its exiled leaders ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has said he will not run for a fourth term, appears to be cautiously reaching out to the opposition in an effort to ease his regime’s diplomatic isolation and deepening economic crisis. Impacts The 2020 elections will likely see continued heavy human rights violations and restrictions on the political space. CNARED’s mooted return might increase tensions, rights violations and repression, especially once they try to campaign outside Bujumbura. Burundi’s crisis weighs heavily on regional security, especially in Congo’s South Kivu Province; the elections might exacerbate this.

The political future of Colombia's FARC is bleak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Civilian Life ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Shifts ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Transition To Civilian Life ◽  
The Government

Significance The meeting has been markedly less militaristic than previous gatherings, with unarmed FARC leaders in civilian clothes, addressing the group on demobilisation and their transition towards becoming a peaceful political movement. It has also been unusually open, with representatives from both the government and the international press being granted unprecedented access. Impacts While FARC leaders will have a quick transition to civilian life, mid- and low-ranking members will struggle. Power shifts in rural, former FARC-dominated areas could be bloody. In the long term, FARC fracturing and political instability in Venezuela could give rise to new cross-border criminal organisations.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

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