Fiscal crisis will undermine Nigeria's stimulus plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Company ◽  
The Imf

Significance The IMF predicts the economy will shrink by 1.8% during 2016, having contracted 0.4% in the first quarter. The slowdown is hurting revenues: On July 14, budget minister Udoma Udo Udoma said the government had collected only 55% of its revenue target. Impacts Talks between Abuja and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta are unlikely to halt attacks on oil infrastructure. With inflation at 16.5% -- the highest rate in a decade -- the CBN may be forced to enter an interest rate hiking cycle. The new head of the state oil company, Maikanti Kacalla Baru, will be tasked with reforming the conglomerate to increase revenues.

Kenya tax bill may prove an unpopular compromise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Tax ◽  
Administrative Reforms ◽  
Development Agenda ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing ◽  
The Imf

Significance With an ambitious development agenda to fund amid mounting debt, and under pressure from the IMF to rationalise revenues, the government aims to increase fiscal space with a set of long-overdue tax and administrative reforms. However, implementing the proposed measures could trigger political unrest. Impacts If parliament overrules the fuel tax proposal, VAT on other goods could be increased from 16% to 18% to cover the fiscal shortfall. Even with a tax on fuel, the IMF could reject a new arrangement if interest-rate caps on commercial lending are maintained. External borrowing requirements of almost 3 billion dollars will keep the government engaged with the Fund.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Combating corruption in Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feisal Khan
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
British Colonial ◽  
The Government ◽  
Systemic Corruption ◽  
Institutional Capabilities

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current state of corruption in Pakistan and evaluate attempts by the government to combat its entrenched corruption culture. Design/methodology/approach – The paper shows that Pakistan’s legacy of British colonial rule, its ethno-linguistic conflict and alternating civilian governments and military coups have weakened institutional capabilities, hindered capacity building and allowed systemic corruption to flourish there. Pakistan’s many anti-corruption efforts failed because they were used to attack political foes instead of strengthening institutional capabilities. Findings – Pakistan has maintained its highly authoritarian form of governance inherited from the British in 1947. The ruling elite view the state as a milch cow for their personal enrichment and this attitude is also reflected in the performance of its bureaucracy. Existing rules of conduct and administration are not enforced as citizens encounter corruption in their dealings with officials. At the policy level, key decisions are often made to benefit the decision makers. The paper concludes that without political will no significant improvement in the state of corruption in Pakistan is likely to occur. Originality/value – This paper will be useful for scholars, policy-makers and anti-corruption practitioners who are interested in corruption in Pakistan and whether the apparent institutionalization of parliamentary democracy has reduced corruption there.

Overreliance on IMF forecasts for India is ill-advised

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
The State ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Subject IMF projections on India's GDP growth between 2006 and 2013. Significance In October 2014, the IMF forecast India's GDP growth at 5.6% and 6.4% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, compared with 5.0% in 2013. Since such growth forecasts increasingly dominate discussions on the state of an economy and influence financial markets, serious questions arise about their accuracy -- and therefore their utility. Impacts Should IMF expectations of India's revival be frustrated, the Fund will call for further reform. In that case, IMF projections will be revised down, exacerbating capital flight risk. IMF projections carry more risks than benefits for countries, especially since they shape sovereign credit ratings.

Monetary easing may quicken in Brazil this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Government

Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Brazil faces stagnation risk in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The risk that the Brazilian economy will stagnate, rather than recover, this year. Significance The recent passage of legislation freezing government spending and the ambitious pension reform currently under discussion in Congress are the flagship policies of the government of President Michel Temer. Both seek to defuse Brazil’s fiscal time bomb in the long term. However, they offer little support to immediate expansion in an economy that not only has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014 but is also locked in a low-growth trap will few apparent short-term escape routes. Impacts Popular dissatisfaction may trigger a new wave of demonstrations, further weakening the government. As long as the fiscal crisis persists, the government’s ability to stimulate the economy will be limited. Political risk will be a crucial factor in business investment decisions in Brazil.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

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