'Brexit' puts UK and EU climate policies in danger

Subject Energy and climate policies post-Brexit. Significance The United Kingdom has been a significant player in the development of energy and climate policies within the EU and its decision to leave raises important questions about the future direction of these policies in both the United Kingdom and the Union. Impacts Single market withdrawal could see the United Kingdom lose up to 500 million euros (550 million dollars) per year in lower energy costs. Advocates of Brexit argue that savings as a result of no longer being bound by EU 'green tape' will outweigh the higher energy costs. The first test of diminished UK influence will be the Commission's proposals for promoting renewable energy released later this year.

Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Subject Outlook for a possible free trade deal between India and the United Kingdom post-Brexit. Significance UK business minister Sajid Javid's first overseas visit following the UK decision to leave the EU ('Brexit') was to India on July 8. Both countries have long eyed closer economic ties, and Brexit will likely provide a catalyst. Impacts Prospects for growth are strongest in areas including IT, financial services, pharmaceuticals, textiles and light engineering. The United Kingdom could support India in future international trade negotiations. In time, the India-UK relationship may become diplomatically stronger than the India-US relationship.


Subject The implications of Brexit for China. Significance The UK electorate's June 23 decision to leave the EU runs counter to China's preferences, and the economic and political uncertainty it creates will affect China's relations with both the United Kingdom and the EU. Impacts UK negotiations with China will focus on areas such as property investment, the financial sector and education. Northern English and Welsh cities in particular will seek closer business relationships with China. Greater economic dependence on China may make London feel less able to side with Washington where Chinese-US interests diverge.


Subject Effects of the UK decision to leave the EU on African states. Significance The decision of voters in the United Kingdom to leave the EU ('Brexit') will alter its relationships with countries across the world. London's engagement with countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will change depending on the form the Brexit takes, but the vote to leave risks diminishing the United Kingdom's influence. Impacts Divides in EU and UK policy toward African issues could deepen. A weaker EU will reinforce the need for African states to build relationships with other areas of the world, particularly Asia. Diminishing UK influence could pressure countries such as Germany to expand their engagement with SSA states.


Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.


Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.


Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.


Subject MiFID II implementation and compliance Significance The EU’s flagship investor protection reform -- the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) -- will come into force on January 3, 2018, Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner responsible for financial stability, confirmed on October 17, saying that there would not be a further delay. Despite already having been given an extra year's extension, banks are struggling to comply in time because of the directive's complexity. Regulators, too, are behind in expanding their capacity to enforce it. Impacts Firms across the world that do any of their business within the EU will have to comply, not just those registered in the EU. All firms trading in financial instruments must comply but those where this is a small part of their business may be caught unawares. MiFID II will come into effect before the United Kingdom leaves the EU and is likely to be written into UK law post-Brexit. The United States is keen to deregulate, but US firms whose EU activity is not compliant will be punished, possibly harming US-EU relations.


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