Investor interest in East African oil may wane

Subject East Africa oil development prospects. Significance The low price of oil is affecting the pace of exploration and development of new hydrocarbon reserves in East Africa; however, political considerations and infrastructure questions are also playing a role. Overcoming infrastructure hurdles and producing economically viable oil will be vital if hydrocarbon discoveries are to fuel economic growth in the region. Impacts Energy shortages will hamper East African countries' ambitious growth plans. Deferred investment in capital-intensive development projects will slow economic growth in regional states. Delayed gas export developments risk losing market share to quicker, cheaper projects. Resumption of hostilities in South Sudan could further damage oil output.

Subject Prospects for East Africa in 2017. Significance Political tensions that were eclipsed by relatively strong economic growth in several East African countries this year could overshadow 2017. Several countries head to the polls while others may need to manage an increasing chance of political violence.


Significance Several of Africa’s largest alcohol markets are in East Africa. Changing consumer tastes, economic growth and government policies are shaping the landscape of the sector. Many of the world’s largest players in the industry are active in the region. Africa and the Middle East could lead growth in the global beer market in the coming years. Impacts Urbanisation and population growth will offer attractive markets for investment. However, reversals in economic growth among East African states would halt expansion in the sector. South Africa’s growing craft beer market could find other markets in the region. While Kenya’s beer market is attractive, the government’s tax policy will give investors pause.


Author(s):  
Issa Moh'd Hemed

This paper examine which type of political regime is an appropriate to improve the economic growth in East Africa by investigate the relationship among governance, political regime and economic performance. The Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is estimated using panel data cover the period from 1996 to 2017. The findings of this study show that all indicators of governance have positive and significant impact on economic growth in East Africa. This result also reveals that under the democratic system, the effectiveness of government has strong effect on economic growth more than anocracy and autocracy. The coefficient of autocratic regime is negative and statistical significant which indicates that the efforts undertaken by the government in this region cannot be helpful to enhance economic growth if the country is extremely relies on autocracy as this system weaken the proper allocation of the country's resources. This study suggest that in order to have stable economic growth, the government should maintains peace and order, obeys the rule of law and observe the human rights so as to minimize the authoritarian system, revive the democratic regime, and improve the effectiveness of government towards remarkable economic growth and development in East Africa. KEYWORDS: Political regime, governance, economic growth, East African countries.


Significance Coffee production in East Africa increased by 9.9% between 2014-15 and 2015-16, substantially exceeding average global production growth of 0.7%. Higher investment and greater assistance from governments could support increased production in East Africa, though results will vary between countries. Impacts Diversification of Ethiopia's economy will reduce coffee's share of total exports. Many East African countries have a strong tea culture, but rising incomes could grow domestic demand. Slow production growth in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam could drive investment to African growing markets.


1973 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Hodgin

The purpose of this article is to review the application of the English law of defamation in the East African countries (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania) and to assess the possible contribution of the Kenya Defamation Act, 1970.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-256
Author(s):  
Lenka Mařincová ◽  
Simona Šafaříková ◽  
Radka Cahlíková

Background: Over a few decades obesity has become a major global health problem. Its prevalence worldwide has more than doubled since 1980. The situation is expected to worsen in the future, especially in the developing countries that experience nutrition transition due to economic growth. It contributes to reduction in malnutrition which supports an increase in obesity prevalence. Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyse the predictors of obesity in the region of East Africa. Methods: Meta-analysis of existing studies was used in order to find the different risk factors and their significance in obesity development. Data extracted from 16 published academic research articles described the situation in East African countries. The significance of the effect of each variable was tested by means of an asymptotic chi-square test, or Fisher's exact (factorial) test and the risk ratios were calculated. Results: Based on the chi-square test and the risk ratios of the aggregated data, three risk factors were found to be significant in the development of obesity – gender, type of residence and socio-economic status. In East African countries, women are significantly more likely to be obese. Living in an urban area and socioeconomic status are also positively associated with obesity. Because of insufficient data three other risk factors did not prove to be of any significance – alcohol consumption, smoking and education level. Conclusion: Conclusions of this meta-analysis confirm world trends but we also found results that are not in line with them (e.g. education). This meta-analysis confirms the huge existing research gap concerning obesity predictors in the East African region. Keywords: Obesity; meta-analysis; East Africa. 


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulhadi Aliyara Haruna ◽  
Abu Sufian Abu Bakar

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate liberalization on economic growth and the relevance of corruption in the five selected sub-Saharan African countries. Design/methodology/approach The study used the modified version of Driscoll and Kraay’s model by Hoechle, which solved the effects of cross-sectional dependence and heteroscedasticity. Findings The findings reveal a positive impact of the index on economic growth, and it was found that foreign direct investment (FDI) and credit to private sector by banks (CPSB) all stimulate economic growth. The interaction terms of corruption with FDI and CPSB indicate negative effects that show how corruption erodes the benefits of liberalization. Finally, the paper recommends the pursuit of appropriate policies with the sole aim of eradicating corruption and providing a conducive environment for business. Originality/value The paper developed a composite domestic financial liberalization index to capture the timing and essential dimensions of the reform process. The study investigates the effect of interest rate liberalization on economic growth and the relevance of corruption. Most of the recent and past studies only examined the impact of interest rate reforms on growth without investigating the relevance of corruption.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
McBride Peter Nkhalamba

PurposeThis study is a comparative analysis of the magnitude of economic growth as a key determinant of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings in 30 countries in Africa, Europe, Asia and Latin America from 2010 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis applies the fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) panel least squares (PLS) models.FindingsThe authors find that the magnitude economic coefficients are marginally small for African countries compared to other developing countries in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Results of the probit and logit binary estimation models show positive coefficients for economic growth sub-factors for non-African countries (developing and developed) compared to negative coefficients for African countries.Practical implicationsThese findings mean that, an increase in economic growth in Africa does not significantly increase the likelihood that sovereign credit ratings will be upgraded. This implies that there is lack of uniformity in the application of the economic growth determinant despite the claims of a consistent framework by rating agencies. Thus, macroeconomic factors are relatively less important in determining country's risk profile in Africa than in other developing and developed countries.Originality/valueFirst, studies that investigate the accuracy of sovereign credit rating indicators and risk factors in Africa are rare. This study is a key literature at the time when the majority of African countries are exploring the window of sovereign bonds as an alternative funding model to the traditional concessionary borrowings from multilateral institutions. On the other hand, the persistent poor rating is driving the cost of sovereign bonds to unreasonably high levels, invariably threatening their hopes of diversifying funding options. Second, there is criticism that the rating assessments of the credit rating agencies are biased in favour of developed countries and there is a gap in literature on studies that explore the whether the credit rating agencies are biased against African countries. This paper thus explores the rationale behind the African Union Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.631 (XXVIII) adopted by the 28th Ordinary Session of the African Union held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in January 2017 (African Union, 2017), directing its specialized governance agency, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), to provide support to its Member States in the field of international credit rating agencies. The Assembly of African Heads of State and Government highlight that African countries are facing the challenges of credit downgrades despite an average positive economic growth. Lastly, the paper makes contribution to the argument that the majority of African countries are unfairly rated by international credit rating agencies, raising a discussion of the possibility of establishing a Pan-African credit rating institution.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1143-1159
Author(s):  
Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa ◽  
Ronney Ncwadi ◽  
Andrew Phiri

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth for a selected sample of nine SSA countries between 1980 and 2014 using a panel econometric approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a log-linearized endogenous using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least squares (POLS) applied to our panel data time series.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows an insignificant effect of human capital on economic growth for our selected sample. These findings remain unchanged even after adding interactive terms to human capital, which are representatives of government spending as well as foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, the authors establish a positive and significant effect of the interactive term between urbanization and human capital on economic growth.Practical implicationsThe results emphasize the need for African policymakers to develop urbanized, “smart”, technologically driven cities within the SSA region as a platform toward strengthening the impact of human capital-economic growth relationship.Originality/valueThis study becomes the first in the literature to validate the human capital–urbanization–growth relationship for African countries.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema ◽  
Zemenu Tadesse Tessema ◽  
Koku Sisay Tamirat ◽  
Achamyeleh Birhanu Teshale

Abstract Background Complete childhood vaccination remains poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite major improvement in childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. Globally, an estimated 2.5 million children die annually from vaccine-preventable diseases. While studies are being conducted in different East African countries, there is limited evidence of complete basic childhood vaccinations and associated factors in East Africa among children aged 12–23 months. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate complete basic childhood vaccinations and associated factors among children aged 12–23 months in East Africa. Methods Based on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of 12 East African countries (Burundi, Ethiopia, Comoros, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi), secondary data analysis was performed. The study included a total weighted sample of 18,811 children aged 12–23 months. The basic childhood vaccination coverage was presented using a bar graph. Multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was fitted for identifying significantly associated factors because the DHS has a hierarchical nature. The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Median Odds Ratio (MOR), Proportional Change in Variance (PCV), and deviance (−2LLR) were used for checking model fitness, and for model comparison. Variable with p-value ≤0.2 in the bi-variable multilevel analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable multilevel analysis, the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were reported to declare the significance and strength of association with full vaccination. Results Complete basic childhood vaccination in East Africa was 69.21% (95% CI, 69.20, 69.21%). In the multivariable multilevel analysis; Mothers aged 25–34 years (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.32), mothers aged 35 years and above (AOR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.71), maternal primary education (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.38), maternal secondary education and above (AOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.36, 1.75), husband primary education (AOR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.39), husband secondary education and above (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.40), media exposure (AOR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.33), birth interval of 24–48 months (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.42), birth interval greater than 48 months (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.50), having 1–3 ANC visit (AOR = 3.24, 95% CI: 2.78, 3.77), four and above ANC visit (AOR = 3.68, 95% CI: 3.17, 4.28), PNC visit (AOR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.47), health facility delivery (AOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.62), large size at birth 1.09 (AOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.19), being 4–6 births (AOR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being above the sixth birth (AOR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.70), middle wealth index (AOR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.28), rich wealth index (AOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.33), community poverty (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.32) and country were significantly associated with complete childhood vaccination. Conclusions In East Africa, full basic childhood vaccine coverage remains a major public health concern with substantial differences across countries. Complete basic childhood vaccination was significantly associated with maternal age, maternal education, husband education, media exposure, preceding birth interval, number of ANC visits, PNC visits, place of delivery, child-size at birth, parity, wealth index, country, and community poverty. Public health interventions should therefore target children born to uneducated mothers and fathers, poor families, and those who have not used maternal health services to enhance full childhood vaccination to reduce the incidence of child mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases.


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