Erdogan is on path taking Turkey away from the West

Significance The Turkish leadership believes that a new US administration may stand back from its predecessor's criticisms of Turkey and be better placed to strike a deal with Russia and Turkey in Syria. An isolationist Washington would also lend Turkey more scope to play a role as a regional power in the Middle East. Erdogan is following a new 'proactive security policy', which is speeding up events on all fronts regardless of costs or confrontations. Impacts The West may have to live with an antagonistic and isolated Turkey drawing closer to Russia. Erdogan's goals are total and unchecked presidential control of society at home and spheres of influence in Syria and Iraq. These would act as beach-heads for Turkish Sunni political influence in the Middle East. Risks are growing of a flight of capital and investment and an economic collapse comparable to 2001 could happen in 2017.

Author(s):  
Simon James

Dura-Europos was a product and ultimately a victim of the interaction of Mediterranean- and Iranian-centred imperial powers in the Middle East which began with Alexander the Great’s conquest of the Achaemenid Persian empire in the later fourth century BC. Its nucleus was established as part of the military infrastructure and communications network of the Seleucid successor-state. It was expanding into a Greekstyle polis during the second century BC, as Seleucid control was being eroded from the east by expanding Arsacid Parthian power, and threatened from the west by the emergent imperial Roman republic. From the early first century BC, the Roman and Parthian empires formally established the Upper Euphrates as the boundary between their spheres of influence, and the last remnants of the Seleucid regime in Syria were soon eliminated. Crassus’ attempt to conquer Parthia ended in disaster at Carrhae in 53 BC, halting Roman ambitions to imitate Alexander for generations. The nominal boundary on the Upper Euphrates remained, although the political situation in the Middle East remained fluid. Rome long controlled the Levant largely indirectly, through client rulers of small states, only slowly establishing directly ruled provinces with Roman governors, a process mostly following establishment of the imperial regime around the turn of the millennia. However, some client states like Nabataea still existed in AD 100 (for overviews see Millar 1993; Ball 2000; Butcher 2003; Sartre 2005). The Middle Euphrates, in what is now eastern Syria, lay outside Roman control, although it is unclear to what extent Dura and its region—part of Mesopotamia, and Parapotamia on the west bank of the river—were effectively under Arsacid control before the later first century AD. For some decades, Armenia may have been the dominant regional power (Edwell 2013, 192–5; Kaizer 2017, 70). As the Roman empire increasingly crystallized into clearly defined, directly ruled provinces, the contrast with the very different Arsacid system became starker. The ‘Parthian empire’, the core of which comprised Iran and Mesopotamia with a western royal capital at Ctesiphon on the Tigris, was a much looser entity (Hauser 2012).


Significance The move reflects Turkey's failure to contain advances by the Moscow-backed Damascus government. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has engaged in multiple military adventures in the Middle East, accompanied by grandiose rhetoric at home. However, there is growing pushback from a range of regional powers. Impacts Foreign investor worries over Turkey’s accumulation of geopolitical risk will keep the lira weak. Erdogan will further leverage his anti-Western rhetoric and policies to gain popularity in Sunni Muslim states beyond the Middle East. Erdogan’s intensifying clash with French President Emmanuel Macron could worsen tensions in regional theatres including Lebanon and Libya.


Subject Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union Significance The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) came into effect in January 2015, replacing a customs union. The EEU is an attempt to integrate the economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia -- with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May -- into a single market of 175 million people with a combined GDP of 2.4 trillion dollars. Supranational and intergovernmental institutions are intended to ensure the free movement of goods, capital, services and people within the union, which also foresees common transport, agriculture and energy policies, a single currency, and closer future integration. Impacts Following Crimea's annexation, the EEU is increasingly seen by skeptics as a Russian attempt to grow its political influence in Eurasia. Kazakhstan will continue to develop strong relations with China and the West despite being an EEU member. Russia's economic slowdown may have serious consequences for remittance payments back to other EEU member countries.


Significance Under the deal, the UN arms embargo will remain in force for five years, while the ban on ballistic missile sales will stay for eight years. This means that Russia's plans to supply Iran with the advanced S-300 missile system will face further delays. However, Moscow is not only focusing on arms sales to Iran, but is looking more widely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The Kremlin will become increasingly dependent on high-value, high-technology military sales while oil prices stay low and Western sanctions remain. Impacts Russia has rebounded to become the second largest arms seller in the Middle East behind the United States. The durability of Russian equipment and its comparable cheapness to US systems will be key attractions for buyers. Russia has become the main global supplier of the anti-access, area-denial weapons. Iran will refrain from progressing controversial Russian weapons sales that could damage its detente with the West.


Significance He also withdrew Turkey from a convention protecting women and sexual minorities, while the chief prosecutor filed a case to close the main Kurdish opposition party. These back-to-back moves caused shock waves at home and abroad, further tarnishing Turkey’s international image. Impacts The loss of investor confidence in the government’s handling of the economy will be profound and lasting, pushing it deeper into crisis. The government’s openly anti-feminist, anti-LGBT stance may contribute to further violence and abuse against women and sexual minorities. Fresh protests are likely and could turn violent, especially in the Kurdish provinces, where repression will be heavy-handed. Western responses will be limited, given Turkey’s importance: as a NATO member; in controlling EU migration; and for US Middle East policy.


Significance Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam, both of which figure heavily in US security policy in the region. In Singapore, she weathered criticism of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In Hanoi, she proposed talks about a strategic partnership, which would mean a significant upgrade to relations with Vietnam. Impacts The Afghanistan withdrawal will make alliances and US reliability central issues in upcoming elections in Japan and South Korea. Japan will strengthen its emerging security cooperation with India, shoring up its defence in the west of the Indo-Pacific region. To test US commitment to the region after the Afghanistan withdrawal, China and North Korea will be increasingly provocative.


Significance The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region. Impacts A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions. More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira. Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.


Significance Although Orangeworm is not believed to be state-backed, governments are prioritising the development of offensive cyberweapons but deploying them in different ways. These range from sabotaging geopolitical rivals -- as with Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel -- to political espionage in the West, commercial espionage in China and financial gain in North Korea. Impacts No sector or industry will be safe from state-to-state cyber conflicts. Authoritarian states will use cyber tools to prevent or restrict political dissent and protest at home. Activist and civil rights groups will increasingly be targeted. The lines between political and criminal activity will blur further.


Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.


Subject Rosneft's privatisation. Significance The sale of a 19.5% government stake in oil giant Rosneft to the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) and commodity trader Glencore, announced on December 7, was the year's largest global hydrocarbons acquisition, and the largest foreign investment in Russia since the onset of economic crisis and the imposition of sanctions in 2014. The deal came amid diminishing hopes that the Rosneft privatisation would go through this year, and is being seen as a success for company head Igor Sechin as well as President Vladimir Putin. Rosneft gains new strategic alliances while the government retains control of the company. Impacts The Rosneft share sale points to revived investor interest in Russia. Coinciding with the OPEC deal, the sale strengthens Russian economic ties and political influence in the Middle East. The participation of European entities will increase pressure for EU sanctions to be dropped.


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