Cyber conflict will probably become more destructive

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Cyber Conflict ◽  
At Home

Significance Although Orangeworm is not believed to be state-backed, governments are prioritising the development of offensive cyberweapons but deploying them in different ways. These range from sabotaging geopolitical rivals -- as with Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel -- to political espionage in the West, commercial espionage in China and financial gain in North Korea. Impacts No sector or industry will be safe from state-to-state cyber conflicts. Authoritarian states will use cyber tools to prevent or restrict political dissent and protest at home. Activist and civil rights groups will increasingly be targeted. The lines between political and criminal activity will blur further.

Raheel boosts Riyadh’s anti-terrorism alliance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Subject The impact of Raheel Sharif taking over as the head of the Saudi-led counterterrorism alliance Significance Pakistan’s retired chief of army staff General Raheel Sharif was last month appointed commander of the Saudi Arabia-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, which now has 41 members. The appointment boosts the image of the Islamic Alliance at a time of limited progress on Saudi-Pakistan political relations and little clarity on the goals and strategy of the Alliance itself. Impacts Saudi-Pakistan military-to-military ties will develop, partly due to their longstanding defence pact and arms sales. Islamabad will continue to improve ties with Iran, even if that means somewhat alienating Riyadh. Pakistan’s army will avoid any Middle Eastern military campaign that could worsen Shia-Sunni divisions at home.

Yemen campaign raises Saudi stability risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group ◽  
At Home

Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Taiwan will benefit from US-China friction

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
State Department ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opening Ceremony ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
At Home

Significance Taiwan-US relations got a symbolic boost when the US government opened a new 250-million-dollar institute to house the de facto embassy in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, on June 12. President Tsai Ing-wen, and a US delegation that included representatives from Congress and the State Department, attended the opening ceremony. It may have received greater attention and perhaps higher-ranking US representation had the first US-North Korea summit not been scheduled for the same day. Impacts Taiwan's president will be constrained from improving China ties by anti-China sentiment at home. More businesses could come under Chinese pressure as cross-Strait relations deteriorate further. Taiwan-US military cooperation will prompt more aggressive Chinese efforts to diminish Taiwan's standing and increase military intimidation.

Trouble in Tokyo could undermine Abe's strength abroad

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
At Home

Significance However, at home his position is deteriorating amid ever-growing scandals. He faces constant criticism in parliament and has failed to enlist support from broad segments of the public. Impacts Abe could recover from low poll scores if the summit with Trump is perceived as a success. Japan will push hard to be included in the heightened diplomatic activity involving North Korea. A new 'marine' force will improve Japan's ability to defend outlying islands.

Kim’s hard line puts inter-Korean stability in doubt

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
At Home

Subject Inter-Korean relations. Significance Visiting Washington on April 10-11, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in got no support for sanctions relief for inter-Korean projects. On April 12, in a major policy speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sharply criticised Seoul’s “pose as a meddlesome ‘mediator’”. Despite these rebuffs, Moon on April 15 claimed to find Kim’s message positive overall, and expressed readiness to meet him again, anywhere. Impacts Along with a harder line at home, North Korea will draw closer to its old allies, China and Russia. Amid ever-closer China-North Korea ties, Chinese President Xi Jinping will probably visit Pyongyang this year. Weakening Moon -- a leader who supports inter-Korean engagement -- is counterproductive for Kim. A resurgent right-wing opposition may win parliamentary elections in Seoul in April next year, making Moon a lame duck.

Washington faces challenge to reassure Asian partners

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam, both of which figure heavily in US security policy in the region. In Singapore, she weathered criticism of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In Hanoi, she proposed talks about a strategic partnership, which would mean a significant upgrade to relations with Vietnam. Impacts The Afghanistan withdrawal will make alliances and US reliability central issues in upcoming elections in Japan and South Korea. Japan will strengthen its emerging security cooperation with India, shoring up its defence in the west of the Indo-Pacific region. To test US commitment to the region after the Afghanistan withdrawal, China and North Korea will be increasingly provocative.

Turkish rapprochement with West will be selective

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Its Region ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Kurdish Issue ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
At Home

Significance The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region. Impacts A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions. More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira. Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.

Saudi campaign in Yemen will hinge on local allies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Port City ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The West ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Military Operation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Saudi Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir said that a ten-country coalition was supporting the military operation, code-named 'Storm of Resolve', "to protect and defend the legitimate government" of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Rapid Huthi advances over recent days towards Hadi's seat in the southern port city of Aden prompted him on March 23 to call on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for military intervention. Impacts Yemen will prove the first major leadership test for potential future Saudi king, Defence Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even in a worst case scenario, the conflict is highly unlikely to affect Saudi oil installations. Iran's aid to the Huthis is opportunistic, not strategic; it will not risk re-engagement with the West to expand in Yemen. Sectarian tensions could rise in eastern Saudi Arabia.

The deadlock in Yemen may break, raising risks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Southern Coast ◽  
The West ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Significance The forces of the internationally-recognised government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, in 2015 routed Huthi rebels from Aden and the southern coast, and also made progress in the central Marib province. However, their advance faltered in early 2016 as it approached the densely-populated highlands, where the rebels have a natural support base. It had appeared that this deadlock might allow a negotiated solution, but the UN-mediated talks failed. In 2017, the government has begun a new advance up the west coast. Impacts The humanitarian situation will worsen; famine is probable. The EU might consider an embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Without the stability of a negotiated peace, it is unlikely that much of Yemen’s oil and gas output will come back on stream. The Yemen conflict will further undermine regional relations, despite recent Iranian efforts to reconcile with the Gulf Arab states.

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