Turkish rapprochement with West will be selective

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Its Region ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Kurdish Issue ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
At Home

Significance The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region. Impacts A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions. More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira. Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.

Raising its Balkan profile will cost Russia little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Eu

Subject Russia's contacts with Balkans political parties. Significance For Moscow, connections with Balkan parties are an instrument to exert influence in a region falling within the West's sphere. The declaration the ruling United Russia party signed with parties from Serbia, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and Bulgaria on June 27 called for military neutrality in a Balkan zone of neutral sovereign states within a new pan-European continental security architecture that would exclude NATO membership and hark back to the Yugoslav policy of non-alignment. Impacts Russia will balance NATO expansion into the Western Balkans with initiatives to increase its influence in the region's domestic politics. Moscow will tacitly accept the Balkans' integration into the EU. Russia will seek to diversify alliances, cooperating with both mainstream pragmatists and radicals calling for a turn away from the West.

Erdogan’s priority is returning Turkey to Islamic ways

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Traditional Values ◽  
Content Type ◽  
At Home

Significance The suspension of Turkey’s exploratory activities in the eastern Mediterranean as scheduled eases tensions with Greece and could allow for diplomacy. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to talk tough, but he mixes the territorial issue with promises to revive Turkish traditional values at home. That, more than foreign adventures, is his underlying goal. Impacts Turkey will review possible sanctions in the waterways it controls in the Turkish Straits. Erdogan will step up hostility towards France while relations with Iran and China will be upgraded. Turkish-US relations would be frozen under a Biden presidency.

Russia seeks regional buy-in for its Syria plans

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coming Out ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Power ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Military Engagement ◽  
Political Weapon

Significance More conventional statements coming out of Moscow last week warned that Western policies designed to contain Damascus could drive more refugees into Europe and accused the United States of deliberately fostering instability in north-east Syria. Such statements reflect the mix of military engagement and diplomatic leverage that Moscow is using in pursuit of a settlement that keeps President Bashar al-Assad in power. Impacts Russia will do little to mitigate the humanitarian situation in Syria but will use it as a political weapon against the West. Success in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean will bolster regional perceptions of Russia as a great power at the expense of the West. Russia will avoid making the same level of military investment in Libya, the Central African Republic and any other zones.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
First Year ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
At Home

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022. Significance After a first year in office dominated by the situation at home, the Biden administration aims to deliver a more developed and focused foreign policy agenda in 2022. Many foreign policy goals will remain largely unchanged. While there will be greater efforts to strengthen ties with allies through mechanisms such as the Quad, the emphasis on issues other than those involving China may be increasingly affected by domestic politics.

Cyber conflict will probably become more destructive

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Cyber Conflict ◽  
At Home

Significance Although Orangeworm is not believed to be state-backed, governments are prioritising the development of offensive cyberweapons but deploying them in different ways. These range from sabotaging geopolitical rivals -- as with Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel -- to political espionage in the West, commercial espionage in China and financial gain in North Korea. Impacts No sector or industry will be safe from state-to-state cyber conflicts. Authoritarian states will use cyber tools to prevent or restrict political dissent and protest at home. Activist and civil rights groups will increasingly be targeted. The lines between political and criminal activity will blur further.

UAE policy drivers will be US alliance, Turkish enmity

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
West Bank ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Economic Dependence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type

Significance The ‘Abraham Accords’ have secured the United Arab Emirates (UAE) bipartisan political support in Washington, but also feed into the growing regional ‘cold war’ between the UAE and Turkey in theatres stretching from the Horn of Africa into the Eastern Mediterranean. Impacts The Emirati example might spur Saudi efforts to take measures to placate a possible incoming Biden administration, regarding Yemen or Qatar. Economic dependence will constrain business-focused Dubai from pressing Abu Dhabi for a less confrontational approach on Tehran and Doha. The UAE would face regional political pushback if Israel resumes its ‘frozen’ plan to annex areas of the West Bank.

Erdogan is on path taking Turkey away from the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spheres Of Influence ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
Proactive Security ◽  
At Home

Significance The Turkish leadership believes that a new US administration may stand back from its predecessor's criticisms of Turkey and be better placed to strike a deal with Russia and Turkey in Syria. An isolationist Washington would also lend Turkey more scope to play a role as a regional power in the Middle East. Erdogan is following a new 'proactive security policy', which is speeding up events on all fronts regardless of costs or confrontations. Impacts The West may have to live with an antagonistic and isolated Turkey drawing closer to Russia. Erdogan's goals are total and unchecked presidential control of society at home and spheres of influence in Syria and Iraq. These would act as beach-heads for Turkish Sunni political influence in the Middle East. Risks are growing of a flight of capital and investment and an economic collapse comparable to 2001 could happen in 2017.

Erdogan’s ambitions will strain EU ties further

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
Industry Collaboration ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Eu ◽  
At Home

Significance Rising tensions over the conflict in Libya have produced a severe crisis in French-Turkish ties and threaten to exacerbate strains in Ankara’s relations with the EU. By placing two NATO members at loggerheads, they also risks damaging the alliance's cohesiveness and it ability to plan and implement future operations. Impacts Tensions over Libya and maritime borders will further sour Turkish-EU ties and complicate attempts to reinvigorate the 2016 refugee deal. Such differences will ensure that Turkey’s EU accession process in effect remains moribund. Turkey will react furiously to additional sanctions but its scope to retaliate is limited by the EU’s importance to its foreign trade. Further tensions with Russia will derail Erdogan’s hopes of defence industry collaboration to counterbalance cooperation with the West. Distance and deployments in Syria, northern Iraq and at home limit Ankara’s ability to send large forces to Libya if conflict escalates.

US backing of Israel over Golan will come with costs

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
West Bank ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
The West ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status

Significance Trump asserted that the decision was necessary to promote regional security and stability. As with his 2017 decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the president is breaking with an international consensus on the status of the Golan Heights, which was captured from Syria in 1967. Impacts The decision will further undermine Palestinian confidence that the United States is an impartial broker. It will raise questions over the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF). A limited campaign of rocket attacks into the Golan Heights by Hezbollah or other Iran-backed groups is possible. The move will further highlight policy towards Israel as a partisan issue in US domestic politics. Some right-wing Israeli and US politicians will use the momentum to push for Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

South Korea approaches political turning point

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
At Home

Subject The outlook for South Korea's domestic politics and international relationships. Significance Like the rest of the world, South Korea worries about how the unpredictable actions of US President Donald Trump's administration might affect it. At home, meanwhile, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, which she strongly contests, creates a power vacuum and prolongs manifold uncertainties, including when the country's next president will be elected and who it will be. Impacts If the Constitutional Court reinstates Park, hitherto peaceful mass protests could turn violent. Bonhomie with US Defense Secretary James Mattis may not last if Park's successor tries to re-engage Pyongyang. Missile defence has been mishandled, but deployment still looks likely this year. China's blatant bullying over missile defence dashes prospects of Beijing turning anti-US sentiment in South Korea to its advantage.

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