Mosul loss could transform global jihadi terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Risk ◽  
The West ◽  
Combat Experience ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Significance Iraqi security forces supported by a US-led coalition launched a long-awaited offensive against IS militants in Mosul in October. The group has suffered a string of losses in the past few months, including the Syrian town of Dabiq, of great symbolic importance to IS as the site of its notional apocalyptic showdown with the West. Impacts IS will capitalise on humanitarian and refugee crises in Iraq and Syria to recruit and rebuild its strength over several years. The group may fragment into independent cells that could attempt their own attacks or join the al-Qaida network. Returning foreign fighters could pose a significant risk to their home countries, given their combat experience.

Understanding the Islamic State—A Review Essay

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 127-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Byman
Keyword(s):  
Review Essay ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Terrorist Threat ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Raison D’État ◽  
Foreign Fighters

This article reviews several recent books on the Islamic State in order to understand its goals, motivations, strategy, and vulnerabilities. It argues that the Islamic State's ideology is powerful but also highly instrumental, offering the group legitimacy and recruiting appeal. Raison d'etat often dominates its decisionmaking. The Islamic State's strength is largely a consequence of the policies and weaknesses of its state adversaries. In addition, the group has many weaknesses of its own, notably its brutality, reliance on foreign fighters, and investment in a state as well as its tendency to seek out new enemies. The threat the Islamic State poses is most severe at the local and regional levels. The danger of terrorism to the West is real but mitigated by the Islamic State's continued prioritization of the Muslim world and the heightened focus of Western security forces on the terrorist threat. A high-quality military force could easily defeat Islamic State fighters, but there is no desire to deploy large numbers of Western ground troops, and local forces have repeatedly shown many weaknesses. In the end, containing the Islamic State and making modest rollback efforts may be the best local outcomes.

Iran's Rouhani could take up his mentor’s mantle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Factions

Significance Rafsanjani, who had lost much overt political power over the past decade, was an important behind-the-scenes power broker in a deeply divided political landscape. He supported President Hassan Rouhani and centrist and reformist political factions. He was also an ardent advocate of economic liberalisation and Iranian rapprochement with the West. Impacts Economic benefits from the nuclear deal will be key to Rouhani’s reconnection with his political base. Rafsanjani's death could trigger a hard-line reaction that could boost tensions with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. If 77-year-old Khamenei were also to pass away, regime instability might increase.

Baku hopes Islamism will buttress Azerbaijani regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
English Language ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
The West ◽  
Double Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Subject Indications from reactions to the Charlie Hebdo incident in Paris of a shift in Azerbaijan's geopolitical orientation. Significance The January 7 terrorist attacks in Paris against the Charlie Hebdo magazine and a Jewish supermarket received international condemnation. While Baku joined international public opinion in denouncing the attacks, official and semi-official outlets variously justified the attacks or claimed Western anger was tantamount to 'double standards'. Among the population, internet reactions echoed similar themes on social media, and religious protesters held rallies against Charlie Hebdo. While Azerbaijan and its regime are typically portrayed as models of absolutist secularism, reactions to the Paris attacks -- and foreign policy shifts in the past year -- indicate that political Islam is becoming an increasingly relevant factor in politics. Impacts The government will continue and probably increase its use of Islamic language and justifications as part of its campaign against the West. Yet at the same time, the authorities will continue to burnish their secular credentials in English-language and international outlets. Azerbaijan-Iran relations will continue in a positive trajectory. The regime will be willing to incorporate elements of Iranian Shia Islamism as a means of buttressing its security.

Cultural heritage wars may affect Israeli-Arab ties

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
West Bank ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Peace Accords ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The ‘Abraham Peace Accords’ between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and between Israel and Bahrain, were signed in September, after being brokered by the US Trump administration. Deals with Sudan and Morocco have since followed. Impacts Palestinian complaints will become more pointed as other Arab-Israeli ties strengthen and tourism increases. The Biden administration could engage in more scrutiny of right-wing Israeli claims, especially over the West Bank settlements. As right-wing politicians entrench their dominance, archaeological finds will drive more nationalistic interpretations of the past.

The use of crypto-currencies in funding violent jihad

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela S.M. Irwin ◽  
George Milad
Keyword(s):  
Significant Risk ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Value Transfer ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to look at current discourse on the topic of crypto-currencies, more specifically Bitcoins, and their application to funding acts of terror. The paper clearly establishes the risks posed by this new payment technology and value transfer system to assist in the process of funding, planning and implementing acts of terror. Design/methodology/approach Publications, blogs and sites published and administered by terrorists groups and their supporters are examined to determine their interest in leveraging emerging payment and value transfer systems to facilitate the funding, planning and implementation of terror attacks. Press releases and other publications are also examined to determine whether crypto-currencies have been used by these groups in fund raising, fund transfer or recent terror attacks. Findings Although it is difficult to find concrete evidence of largescale use of Bitcoins and other crypto-currencies by terrorist groups and their supporters, there is strong evidence to suggest that they have been linked to a number of terror attacks in Europe and Indonesia. Supporters of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), jihadists and terrorist organisations are actively looking to and promoting the use of new and emerging technologies, such as Bitcoin, to mitigate some of the risks associated with traditional fund transfer methods. Some websites associated with terrorist organisations have started to collect donations in Bitcoins. Many Bitcoin ATMs and Bitcoin exchanges are located in countries that have seen significant numbers of foreign fighters join ISIS in the Middle East and are also positioned in countries that have seen increased risk of terror attack. These present a significant risk because they allow for the seamless, anonymous transfer of funds to and from terrorist groups and their supporters. The paper highlights the need for further in-depth research into reliable ways to circumvent the current difficulties experienced in differentiating illicit transactions from legitimate ones and establishing reliable means of attribution. Originality/value Using a document published by ISIS, which provides would-be jihadists detailed instructions on how they can get to Syria or Iraq without being detected, a set of models were created showing how this could be achieved using Bitcoins alone. From this scenario, red flag indicators and suspicious behaviour models have been created to determine whether they can be identified during detailed analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain which will be conducted in later stages of research.

Growing environmental crime fuels global instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Crime ◽  
Global Instability ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Impact ◽  
Substantial Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Environmental Programme

Subject Environmental crime and its global impact. Significance A joint Interpol-UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) assessment in June revised dramatically upward the official cost of global environmental crime. The report estimates this cost to have increased 26% to 91-258 billion dollars as of June 2016 from 70-213 billion dollars in 2014. In part this is a correction from previous underestimates, but it also reflects a genuine and substantial growth. Over the past ten years, the turnover of environmental crime has risen by at least 5-7% per year, two to three times faster than global GDP. Impacts Environmental crime will continue to degrade the biosphere, exacerbating climate change and species' extinctions. Such crimes will facilitate the operations of a wide range of dangerous organisations, from terrorists and insurgents to gangsters. The issue will cause increasing tension between the West and those failing to address the problem, such as China.

China’s new blacklist is a threat to foreign firms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Export Control ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
The West ◽  
Chinese Enterprises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Do So

Subject China's plan to blacklist foreign firms for denying supplies to Chinese customers. Significance China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is responding to US export controls by creating a new tool to punish foreign businesses that curtail supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons: the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). China has not shied away from targeting foreign businesses for political reasons in the past. The UEL gives it a much more powerful tool to do so. Impacts The United States is the target for now, but once in place the UEL can easily be used against other countries. An export control bill now in the works will hasten the decoupling of China and the West. Foreign firms in sensitive sectors may opt to curtail their presence in China preventatively, or curry greater favour with Beijing.

Migration drives Central America-Mexico tensions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Central America ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central American ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Implications of US immigration policy for relations between Mexico and Central American countries. Significance The rhetoric of US President Donald Trump and his government's initial moves to deal with illegal immigration have caused great concern in Central America and Mexico. Central American migration through Mexico to the United States in recent years has been viewed as a humanitarian crisis. There is a significant risk that Trump administration policy could undermine international relations within the region, potentially exacerbating problems of violence and insecurity. Impacts There is a risk of increased collusion between Mexican authorities and trafficking cartels to abuse Central American migrants. Despite improvements over the past year, the Mexican asylum system would struggle to cope with a large increase in claims. The challenges of migrating to the United States and Mexico could make Costa Rica increasingly attractive for Northern Triangle citizens.

Israel will keep shooting Palestinian protesters

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
West Bank ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Investigation ◽  
The Us

Significance However, the United States has already blocked a Kuwaiti-drafted statement expressing “outrage” at Israeli security forces’ killings of protesters and calling for an independent investigation. The demonstrations by thousands of Gaza Palestinians approaching the Israeli security fence coincided with the formal opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem. Impacts The turn in international opinion against Israel could bolster Iran and its Lebanese protégé Hezbollah. Events in Gaza make progress in the stalled Egypt-backed ‘reconciliation’ agreement with the West Bank authorities even more unlikely. Few countries will follow the US example of moving their embassies to Jerusalem, despite Israeli inducements. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s recent foreign policy successes could bolster his position against corruption investigations.

International jihadist terrorism is still potent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Combat Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism

Subject Jihadist terrorism in the past year. Significance Developments in terrorist groups in the past year were marked by Islamic State (IS)’s military 'defeat' in Syria and, in parallel, expansion into South-east Asia and West Africa via the emergence of new ‘provinces’; al-Qaida (AQ)’s consolidation and growing capabilities via opportunistic local collaborations; and concerns over Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)’s resurgence in Indonesia. Impacts Targeting of places of worship in South-east Asia may become an entrenched trend. AQIM will keep trying to exploit socio-political grievances in the Maghreb region and Mali. Despite its losses, IS has more money, better media profile and more combat experience than AQ.

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