Kurdish-Turkish spat may save Islamic State in Syria

Significance The Kurdish-dominated SDF, with weapons and air support from the US-led coalition fighting IS in Iraq and Syria, on November 5 launched a campaign to encircle and eventually seize Raqqa. The Wrath of the Euphrates offensive made some progress against outlying villages to the north of the city, and on December 10 began a second phase to take territory to the west. Impacts Turkish-US relations could worsen as Ankara confronts the SDF and engages more deeply with Moscow. Turkey could use the non-jihadi Syrian opposition in Syria’s north more openly to confront the Kurdish forces. IS, although weakened, will survive into the medium term owing to cleavages and disputes among its many enemies.

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.


Significance The province's capital, Ramadi, fell to ISG on May 17 after the group launched a knock-out blow against embattled Iraqi Security Force (ISF) units. These units had been fighting intensively for nearly eighteen months and were on the point of exhaustion when ISG launched its offensive on the city, carrying out 30 suicide truck bombs in a matter of days. ISF exhaustion combined with ISG shock tactics meant that a thousand jihadists were able to outfight government forces. Impacts Iraq will remain in a state of high-intensity conflict into 2017. Sunni Arabs will be incorporated into the Iraqi army and paramilitary units. The National Guard initiative will cause controversy among Iraqi factions. The US military is likely to intensify airpower and special forces presence in Iraq. The conflict will set back oil and gas development, such as new licensing rounds and Kirkuk oil field.


Significance Zamili's remarks appear to signal Iraqi government concerns that the US-led international air campaign against the group is not going well. The effectiveness of airstrikes has been constrained by poor intelligence and strict rules of engagement; efforts to support local ground forces are at a standstill; and Iraqi offensive operations have virtually ground to a halt. Impacts Russia's strong intervention into Syria will not break the stalemate in either the fight against ISG or the Syrian civil war. The huge costs of a protracted campaign against ISG will further weaken Iraq's medium-term fiscal outlook. ISG's survival will limit Syrian Kurdish ambitions to establish a contiguous territory across northern Syria. It will also contain Syrian rebel forces, ensuring that the stalemate in the Syrian civil war continues. Continued flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria will ensure international terrorism threat persist over the long term.


Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.


Keyword(s):  
The Us ◽  

Significance Some 80% of the city, which was the de facto capital of Islamic State (IS) until its capture by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), was ruined in fighting and reconstruction efforts have been limited. With 90% of the governorate's population of tribal origin, the Kurdish-dominated SDF relies on clientelist networks with tribal leaders, all Sunni Arab, to maintain order and garner support. Impacts Local and regional actors will compete for tribal leaders’ loyalty, creating divisions within tribes and clans. The SDF will retain the support of Raqqa-based tribal leaders. Tribal leaders who have fled elsewhere will promote dissent in SDF areas of control. Some youths who sympathise with IS’s cause will cause instability in Raqqa.


Author(s):  
W. George Darling ◽  
Melinda A. Lewis

The Lower Greensand (LGS) forms the second most important aquifer in the London Basin but, being largely absent beneath the city itself, has received much less attention than the ubiquitous overlying Chalk aquifer. While the general directions of groundwater flow in the Chalk are well established, there has been much less certainty about flow in the LGS owing to regionally sparse borehole information. This study focuses on two hitherto uncertain aspects of the confined aquifer: the sources of recharge to the west-central London Basin around Slough, and the fate of LGS water where the aquifer thins out on the flank of the London Platform in the Gravesend–Medway–Sheppey area on the southern side of the basin. The application of hydrogeochemical techniques including environmental isotopes indicates that recharge to the Slough area is derived from the northern LGS outcrop, probably supplemented by downward leakage from the Chalk, while upward leakage from the LGS in North Kent is mixing with Chalk water to the extent that some Chalk boreholes on the Isle of Sheppey are abstracting high proportions of water with an LGS fingerprint. In doing so, this study demonstrates the value of re-examining previously published data from a fresh perspective.Thematic collection: This article is part of the Hydrogeology of Sandstone collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/hydrogeology-of-sandstone


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 434-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn A. Walter ◽  
Linda F. Edelman ◽  
Keneth J. Hatten

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate how dynamic capabilities enabled survival in a select group of brewers, during one of the lengthiest and most severe industry consolidations in history. In doing so, we advance Abell’s (1978) theory of strategic windows through integration with the resource-based view of the firm. Design/methodology/approach – Using a mixed method approach, we first apply case study methods to develop hypotheses around the timing and level of operational capability required for survival. In the second phase, we test these hypothesized estimations on the USA Brewing population. Findings – Indicate that brewers which had advanced distribution and manufacturing operational capabilities before the strategic window of opportunity closed had higher survival rates. Practical implications – This study reinforces the importance of making timely strategic investments in capabilities. Originality/value – The integration of strategic window and capability theories advances our understanding of the roles that capabilities and time play in determining firm survival.


Author(s):  
A. Wess Mitchell

This chapter examines the competition with the Ottoman Empire and Russia, from the reconquest of Hungary to Joseph II’s final Turkish war. On its southern and eastern frontiers, the Habsburg Monarchy contended with two large land empires: a decaying Ottoman Empire, and a rising Russia determined to extend its influence on the Black Sea littorals and Balkan Peninsula. In balancing these forces, Austria faced two interrelated dangers: the possibility of Russia filling Ottoman power vacuums that Austria itself could not fill, and the potential for crises here, if improperly managed, to fetter Austria’s options for handling graver threats in the west. In dealing with these challenges, Austria deployed a range of tools over the course of the eighteenth century. In the first phase (1690s–1730s), it deployed mobile field armies to alleviate Turkish pressure on the Habsburg heartland before the arrival of significant Russian influence. In the second phase (1740s–70s), Austria used appeasement and militarized borders to ensure quiet in the south while focusing on the life-or-death struggles with Frederick the Great. In the third phase (1770s–90s), it used alliances of restraint to check and keep pace with Russian expansion, and recruit its help in comanaging problems to the north. Together, these techniques provided for a slow but largely effective recessional, in which the House of Austria used cost-effective methods to manage Turkish decline and avoid collisions that would have complicated its more important western struggles.


Author(s):  
Francesca Manes-Rossi ◽  
Natalia Aversano ◽  
Paolo Tartaglia Polcini

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore a citizen-centered tool for public accountability, the popular report (PR). Elaborating on previous studies and on content analysis of a sample of municipalities in the USA, this paper aims to identify the qualitative characteristics and content elements that PR should have to serve as a legitimation tool. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts a mixed methodology. After the analysis of previous studies on PR and best practices in US municipalities, a list of content elements and qualitative characteristics of PR is compared with results emerging from the content analysis of PR published by of a sample of municipalities in the USA. Findings The analysis reveals that the PR should embed information about the government’s sources of revenues and taxes, expenditures, cost of government services, liveability and governance of the city. Research limitations/implications The paper offers new knowledge on reporting centered on citizens, framing the analysis in the legitimacy theory. Even though the research relates only to the US context, the results may assist standard setters in preparing guidelines for local governments to communicate financial data to citizens and stimulate further research in other contexts. Practical implications The results may encourage local governments to prepare a PR suitable to discharge accountability and gain legitimation. Originality/value This study is the first to discuss the PR within a theoretical framework, in this case, legitimacy theory. Moreover, a further novelty lays in the analysis carried out on the PRs published by US municipalities in order to derive qualitative characteristics and content elements with which the PR should comply.


1989 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Samuel

Excavation and observations from 1984–6 on the Leadenhall Court site in the City of London revealed elements of the fifteenth-century market building known as ‘The Leadenhall’. The truncated foundations were located in various areas of the site; 177 medieval moulded stones were found reused in later cellar walls; and a fragment of the west wall survived to its full height of 11.17m encased between Victorian buildings. The recording and subsequent study of these features, together with a reassessment of such plans and drawings of the building as have survived, established the ground plan of the quadrangle and chapel, and made possible a complete reconstruction of the north range of this important civic building. The methodology used in the reconstructions is described with particular emphasis upon the analysis of the moulded stones. In conclusion, both the design of the structure and the documentary sources are studied to show how it may have been intended to function.The arcaded ground floor functioned as part of a common market, while the upper floors were intended to be a granary. For convenience, however, this dual-purpose building is referred to as the ‘garner’ throughout the text.


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