Russia's economy will benefit from thaw with Trump

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Know How ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Eu

Subject Russia-US relations and its impact on the Russian economy. Significance Cautious hopes of improvement in US-Russian relations have boosted investor sentiment towards the Russian economy. Improved relations have the potential to spur Russian economic recovery, backed by stabilising global oil prices and reviving domestic demand. US President-elect Donald Trump's more favourable stance give Russian assets a perceived comparative advantage over other emerging economies, encouraging short-term speculative investment. Impacts A complete or partial lifting of US sanctions would encourage the EU to take similar action. Improved relations will divert funds to Russia from other emerging markets. A renewed flow of US technology and know-how would benefit Russian financial institutions and corporates. Russian oil companies will exploit US technologies to develop Arctic deposits.

Global R&D policy will shift toward industrial needs

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Industrial Needs ◽  
D Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for R&D policies across OECD countries. Significance China has just announced new rules that greatly expand its visa programme for allowing foreign scientists to settle in the country, the People's Daily reported on January 25. Rising research and development (R&D) expenditure in BRICS countries is reducing the lead of OECD economies and deepening the interdependence between regions occupying key niches in global value chains. The 2008 financial crisis has reframed the importance of R&D policies as a means of responding to low productivity growth in OECD economies and for tackling major policy issues with limited funds. The oil price fall will affect green innovation adversely, but could spur further R&D investment in emerging economies dependent on fossil fuel exports. Impacts Advances in vehicle telematics, wearable technology and mobile payment will fuel developments in big data. The United States will invest more in R&D than the EU, as it has stronger foundations in the digital economy. The BRICS economies will see growing importance, as China's gross R&D overtook the EU in 2012.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Critical EU report on Turkey may trigger 'Turexit'

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Customs Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
Economic Upturn ◽  
The Eu

Significance Turkey's faltering EU accession process looks more at risk than ever, following Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn's warning that Ankara had "clearly chosen to move away from Europe, not closer to it". Hahn was presenting the European Commission's 2016 Enlargement Package, which is much more critical of Turkey than of the six Western Balkans countries that are either accession candidates like Turkey or potential candidates. Yet when it comes to terminating Turkey's candidacy, both the Turkish and EU authorities want the other to make the move. In the short term, some EU capitals fear a wave of migrants should Ankara stop cooperating in policing the Aegean; in the longer term, Turkey's economy could suffer. Impacts The EU's interest in Western Balkan security, stability and prosperity will keep enlargement to these countries on track, at least formally. However, the Dutch referendum vote against Ukraine's association agreement shows popular feeling spreading in the EU against enlargement. Turkey's customs union with the EU underpins its recent economic upturn; it is hard to see it continuing without the prospect of membership. Resumed use of the East Mediterranean route depends on Turkey but also on migrants' hopes of being able to cross borders further north.

Croatia's political weaknesses will slow growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.

Chances for negotiated Serbia-Kosovo deal are fading

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Extra Cost ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Border Adjustments ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Kosovan government imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) on November 6, frustrated at their refusal to recognise Kosovo’s independence except on terms it sees as unacceptable. The move will not make Serbia back down but will increase pressure on Kosovo’s president to abandon discussions with his Serbian counterpart about border adjustments. Impacts In the short term, Kosovan consumers must bear the extra cost of imports from Serbia and BiH, mainly food and building materials. Trade could reroute elsewhere, increasing Kosovo’s separation from Serbia, unless Serbian exporters cut their prices to compensate. The impact on Serbia should be minor: exports to Kosovo at 400 million euros a year are just 3% of total goods exports. The EU will be irked at Prishtina’s failure to uphold good regional relations under its Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

Greece will rely more on gas as transition fuel

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Strategic Trade ◽  
Domestic Energy ◽  
The Eu

Significance Over the past few months, the new Greek government under the leadership of Kyriakos Mitsotakis has demonstrated both its commitment to reforming the domestic energy market and its ability to engage regional partners in a dialogue on cooperation in energy policy. Its ambitious plan to transform Greece into a regional natural gas hub got off to a good start in 2020 with the signing of the landmark international Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed) pipeline agreement on January 3. Impacts If the economy recovers as expected, particularly industry, it should boost domestic demand for gas. In the short term, Greek reliance on Russian gas imports is expected to remain high. Rising volumes of US LNG imports will appease the United States, a strategic trade and military partner of the EU. Greece will strive to position itself as prominent LNG bunkering location in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Poor governance, weak institutions will dog eastern EU

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Good Governance ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Weak Institutions ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Eu

Subject Instability in eastern EU. Significance The EU has long reinforced Central-East European (CEE) member states with regulations and constraints. As it became absorbed in the euro-crisis and the nationalist surge, these countries felt less constrained and freer to act. Consequently, short-term or incoherent policy goals and elite-driven illiberal agendas are impeding good governance, anti-corruption efforts and further democratisation in some of CEE; none are exempt from government instability and rising nationalism. Impacts Instability in CEE is likely to discourage bold decisions on EU enlargement to North Macedonia and Albania. Economic malaise will make CEE governments less choosy regarding Chinese investments. An increasingly disenchanted public will be even more susceptible to internal and Russian disinformation campaigns.

The performance of cross-border acquirers from emerging economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaobai Ma ◽  
Yiying Zhu ◽  
Wenyuan Cai
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Traditional Understanding

Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate the value creation of cross-border acquisitions conducted by Chinese firms and determinants that result in the different performance. During the recent decades, the world has witnessed multinational enterprises (MNEs) from emerging economies undertaking aggressive cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M & As). This phenomenon raises great attention in the international business community, and also challenges the traditional understanding in the extant literature. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine 272 cross-border M & As associated with 48 target countries during the period 1996-2012. Findings – Evidences show that cross-border expansions on average point to negative performance in the short term. The authors also find that prior cross-border M & A experiences, ownership structure of the acquirer (state-owned vs private) and acquirer size positively affect the performance of the acquiring firm. Originality/value – In addition to contributing to cross-border M & A literature, the findings also provide useful guidance to outward foreign direct investment by firms from emerging economies.

Brexit will intensify UK foreign policy debate

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom’s post-Brexit foreign policy. Significance A recent public disagreement between Prime Minister Theresa May and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has shed light on an evolving series of tensions surrounding the overall direction of the United Kingdom’s foreign policy in light of the referendum decision to leave the EU. Impacts The short-term coherence of UK foreign policy may be unclear to international actors. The sense of uncertainty triggered by Brexit is likely to extend over the coming years. Scottish independence would diminish the United Kingdom’s importance as an international actor even further.

Brexit will remove advocate for Balkans enlargement

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for EU enlargement to the Western Balkans after the UK vote to leave. Significance EU officials and diplomats in the region are publicly trying to send messages that, when it comes to the accession prospects of the Western Balkan countries, everything remains 'business as usual', despite the UK vote to leave ('Brexit'). The familiar refrain is that as long as the countries of the region deliver on the reforms demanded by the EU, the process will continue to move forward. Impacts UK-Balkans trade, investment and remittances flows are too low to inflict any appreciable Brexit 'shock'. Serbia will remain on course for the EU despite Brexit, which will have no major financial or economic impact, the Serbian premier has said. However, the National Bank of Serbia cut its key policy rate yesterday, expecting Brexit to affect emerging economies, including Serbia. Pro-Russian elements in the Balkans will welcome UK withdrawal as removing a perceived obstacle to rapprochement between the EU and Russia.

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