Critical EU report on Turkey may trigger 'Turexit'

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Customs Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
Economic Upturn ◽  
The Eu

Significance Turkey's faltering EU accession process looks more at risk than ever, following Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn's warning that Ankara had "clearly chosen to move away from Europe, not closer to it". Hahn was presenting the European Commission's 2016 Enlargement Package, which is much more critical of Turkey than of the six Western Balkans countries that are either accession candidates like Turkey or potential candidates. Yet when it comes to terminating Turkey's candidacy, both the Turkish and EU authorities want the other to make the move. In the short term, some EU capitals fear a wave of migrants should Ankara stop cooperating in policing the Aegean; in the longer term, Turkey's economy could suffer. Impacts The EU's interest in Western Balkan security, stability and prosperity will keep enlargement to these countries on track, at least formally. However, the Dutch referendum vote against Ukraine's association agreement shows popular feeling spreading in the EU against enlargement. Turkey's customs union with the EU underpins its recent economic upturn; it is hard to see it continuing without the prospect of membership. Resumed use of the East Mediterranean route depends on Turkey but also on migrants' hopes of being able to cross borders further north.

Zagreb could shut Serbia border again

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Freight Transport ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
Trade War

Significance The short-lived trade war between Serbia and Croatia, seemingly winding down, demonstrates how the crisis generated in Europe by the influx of refugees and migrants has the potential to destabilise fragile regional relations in the Western Balkans. Angry rhetoric -- often drawing on historical grievances -- accompanied the border closure, causing bilateral relations to plummet overnight. Without a coherent EU plan for dealing with the refugee crisis, leaving member states and candidate countries to struggle on their own, such situations could be repeated across Europe. Impacts Freight transport will face increased risks of disruption and border closure for much of the autumn, while the flow of refugees continues. Bilateral relations will suffer in the short term, undermining EU (and local) efforts to reconcile the former enemies fully. Serbia will balance trying to move on refugees without provoking neighbours Hungary and Croatia into blocking its EU accession process.

Chances for negotiated Serbia-Kosovo deal are fading

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Extra Cost ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Border Adjustments ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Kosovan government imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) on November 6, frustrated at their refusal to recognise Kosovo’s independence except on terms it sees as unacceptable. The move will not make Serbia back down but will increase pressure on Kosovo’s president to abandon discussions with his Serbian counterpart about border adjustments. Impacts In the short term, Kosovan consumers must bear the extra cost of imports from Serbia and BiH, mainly food and building materials. Trade could reroute elsewhere, increasing Kosovo’s separation from Serbia, unless Serbian exporters cut their prices to compensate. The impact on Serbia should be minor: exports to Kosovo at 400 million euros a year are just 3% of total goods exports. The EU will be irked at Prishtina’s failure to uphold good regional relations under its Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

Turkey's EU accession process is sick but not dead

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Think Tank ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Subject The prospects for Turkey's EU membership bid. Significance Trading and investment links between Turkey and the EU will continue to be strong. The economy of Turkey looks much healthier than those of EU Mediterranean states. Its leverage is much greater than a decade ago, while the EU now also regularly acknowledges Turkey's geo-strategic importance as an ally. The way is open for further economic integration beyond the Customs Union in primary agricultural products and services. A sign that Turkey's accession aspirations are still alive is that 2015 marks the first phase of an EU accession plan. Nevertheless, a leading Brussels think-tank, the Centre for European Policy Studies, has forecast that the hobbled accession negotiations will be "halted" on their tenth anniversary in October. Impacts With the rise of Islamic State, the United States and NATO will try hard to keep Turkey on side and avert outright rupture with the EU. Turkey's attraction as a destination for trade, direct investment and the money markets will persist despite the EU membership stand-off. Tighter control of the judiciary and restrictions on freedom of expression will increase the country's isolation from EU public opinion. Defining itself more along Islamic lines, Turkey will have less interest in pro-EU symbolism or gestures implying a Western orientation. Turkey will vociferously attack perceived Islamophobia in the EU, sometimes damaging bilateral relations with EU member states in so doing.

EU must compete with other powers for Balkan influence

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Balkans ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Previous Decade ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Made In

Subject EU's rivals in Western Balkans. Significance Despite last year’s Austrian presidency of the Council of the EU, and the current Romanian presidency’s interest in the region, the Western Balkans is still largely ignored by European capitals. This is allowing other actors, specifically Russia, Turkey and China, to gain influence. Waning belief in near-term EU expansion has reduced incentives to continue the progress made in the previous decade. Impacts A Western military presence in the region will continue as a means of ensuring stability in the absence of reforms. Domestic political leaders’ reliability will diminish as short-term considerations supersede long-term goals. Public trust in the EU will continue to fall, though EU accession will remain a popular objective.

The Western Balkans on its path to the European Union

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
Silvana Mojsovska
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Eu

EU membership has been a compelling goal for the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia), related to the bloc’s stability, economic prosperity and higher standard of living. Each of these countries pursues its own process of EU accession while being also a part of the regional initiatives under the auspices of the EU. This paper provides an overview of the EU accession process of the Western Balkan countries, focusing on their individual achievements and challenges, as well as common features and problems. Also, the content andprospects of regional integration of the Western Balkans through the Regional Economic Area (REA) programme, along with the role of the EU in supporting the regional perspective are discussed. The parallel Western Balkans engagement in both processes supports arguments for the prioritisation of the individual countries’ accession to the EU over Western Balkans regional integration, distinguishing also the challenges of both processes. The methodology for the elaboration of this paper includes methods of analysis and synthesis, based on extensive desk research of available materials.

EU bid tangle may hamper Iceland capital controls exit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Controls ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Membership Application ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Implications of the Icelandic government's EU missteps for its planned exit from capital controls. Significance The government has sought to make more definite the halt to Iceland's EU accession process, without seeking either parliamentary or popular endorsement of its formal withdrawal of the membership application. It has succeeded in damaging its domestic standing, while still leaving Iceland's EU status unclear. It has also made the political environment more volatile, when stability is needed to facilitate the government's planned exit from the capital controls imposed in the 2008 crisis. Impacts The EU is still seeking clarity on whether Iceland is formally withdrawing its membership application. Strains over the handling of the exit from capital controls could exacerbate other differences within the government. The government's side-stepping of parliament has triggered a broader debate on executive-legislative relations which will continue.

Erdogan’s ambitions will strain EU ties further

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
Industry Collaboration ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Eu ◽  
At Home

Significance Rising tensions over the conflict in Libya have produced a severe crisis in French-Turkish ties and threaten to exacerbate strains in Ankara’s relations with the EU. By placing two NATO members at loggerheads, they also risks damaging the alliance's cohesiveness and it ability to plan and implement future operations. Impacts Tensions over Libya and maritime borders will further sour Turkish-EU ties and complicate attempts to reinvigorate the 2016 refugee deal. Such differences will ensure that Turkey’s EU accession process in effect remains moribund. Turkey will react furiously to additional sanctions but its scope to retaliate is limited by the EU’s importance to its foreign trade. Further tensions with Russia will derail Erdogan’s hopes of defence industry collaboration to counterbalance cooperation with the West. Distance and deployments in Syria, northern Iraq and at home limit Ankara’s ability to send large forces to Libya if conflict escalates.

Cyprus and the European Union

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stelios Stavridis ◽  
Charalambos Tsardanidis
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
The North ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The Republic of Cyprus (or Cyprus) joined the European Union (EU) in May 2004 and adopted the single currency (the euro) in 2008. This article consists of three parts: it begins with a historical contextualization, explaining the reasons for Cyprus’ application for an Association Agreement with the (then) European Economic Community (EEC), and also examining the latter´s reaction and policy towards the 1974 Turkish invasion following a failed coup d´état against the Makarios Presidency that has led to a divided island since then (Part 1). In brief, what is known as the “Cyprus Problem.” This part also looks at the evolution of the Association Agreement during the period since 1975 which ended with the conclusion of a customs union Agreement between Cyprus and the European Community in 1987. The article next turns to an analysis of the Republic of Cyprus´ EU accession negotiations process (Part 2). It also covers the impact (or lack thereof) of various reunification plans, and most notably what is seen as the culmination of such efforts in the so-called 2002–2004 Annan Plans. The following section presents an assessment of how Cyprus has fared as a member state since it joined the EU (Part 3). It covers several key questions regarding the EU–Cyprus relationship. Whereas this article is not about the Cyprus problem itself, but as will be made clear throughout this study, it remains the dominant issue for the island. Others issues encompass EU relations with the Turkish-Cypriot community, the question of Turkey´s EU accession, the impact of the economic crisis of 2013, as well as energy security considerations following the discovery of gas in the region. The study concludes that being in the EU offers better perspectives for the Republic of Cyprus than if it had been kept outside it. If only because as the Accession Treaty makes it clear: it is the whole island that has joined the EU albeit the acquis communautaire cannot apply to the north, occupied, part of the Island following the invasion by Turkey. But all Cypriots are EU citizens. Yet, to a large extent, the experience of Cyprus prior to and after EU membership also reflects the kind of specific problems that a “small state” is facing in its international relations.

IMF funding delay would hit Bosnian Serbs more

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
The Past ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Blockages holding up Bosnia's EU accession process and new IMF arrangement. Significance International officials have been discussing for almost a year with Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) politicians their country's EU accession process and an IMF arrangement. However, the process has bogged down amid personal animosities and mistrust. The impasse not only threatens BiH's EU path but also frustrates efforts in the past year by state and entity governments to implement unpopular reforms and meet demanding conditions for an IMF extended fund facility (EFF). Impacts The political crisis has entered a new, more radical phase that could threaten stability and even security before October local elections. Parallel census results in the two entities will deepen divisions and compromise BiH's already-blocked path to the EU. The UK government's absorption with leaving the EU will reduce its mediating role in Bosnia.

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