Wage gains in Japan will be slow in coming

Subject Annual wage negotiations in Japan. Significance Japanese companies are preparing for their late January labour negotiations that will culminate with the annual 'spring wage offensive' (shunto) from March to June. Company unions, labour federations and employers’ organisations join in this coordination effort to set wages for the following year. For the past four years, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Keidanren business federation have called for larger wage increases to stimulate economic demand. Impacts Company profits, rising until the last two quarters, will be the driving factor in wage gains. A tighter labour market will eventually push up wages. The labour market remains weak when measured by the number of available hours of work, so wages will rise slowly.

Significance The EU is built around the 'four freedoms', which together form the core of the internal market. Economically, freedom of movement is meant to smooth out asymmetrical labour market shocks by allocating labour where it is needed most. In the past, intra-EU mobility has been relatively low and mostly reflected a widening welfare gap between older member states and those that joined after 2004. As a result, fears of 'welfare tourism' have risen, despite the fact that empirical evidence for it is scarce. Impacts The issue of welfare tourism will continue to dominate the debate. Who is eligible for what welfare payments in other member states will, therefore, continue to occupy courts across Europe. Because of the current refugee crisis, the rules on third-country nationals will come under scrutiny again.


Keyword(s):  

Headline JAPAN: Tight labour market will not push up inflation


Subject Outlook for monetary policy in Japan. Significance The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has called for a comprehensive review of economic activity and prices at the next board meeting on September 20, the first such review since early 2013, soon after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's election. Consumer prices have been flat for most of the past year despite the BoJ's 2% inflation goal. Economic activity has moved fitfully between growth and recession, averaging around 0.5% annually. A massive increase of the monetary base is only weakly influencing business and consumer spending. Impacts The government's latest fiscal stimulus will probably be closer to 7.5 trillion yen than the headline 28-trillion-yen figure. Helicopter money would undermine the government's efforts to achieve its goal of primary fiscal balance by 2020. The main risk of helicopter money would be hyperinflation -- a long-term risk rooted in politics.


Significance A fragmented parliament and party policy divisions mean there are no straightforward government coalition options. Some of the six parties with fewer than ten seats are likely to be involved in any new government line-up, as Spain's now-four substantial parties will find it hard to produce a government among themselves. Impacts Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's leadership of the PP may be coming to an end. The PP is the party least suited to the new era of coalition politics: adapting will be a challenge for it. Podemos' strong showing in Catalonia and the Basque Country will force pro-independence parties there to reconsider their positions. Even if other parties agreed on constitutional reform, the PP's majority in the Senate could block it. Uncertainty about the next government and reform prospects will hit international confidence and could push up debt-servicing costs.


Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen D. Hughes ◽  
Jennifer E. Jennings

Purpose The purpose of in this study is to examine how scholarship on women’s entrepreneurship/gender and entrepreneurship has contributed to understandings of the embeddedness of entrepreneurial activity. The authors review studies from the past four decades (1975-2018) to assess the extent to which research has examined the embeddedness of entrepreneurial activity in two key institutions – the family and the labour market – that remain pervasively and persistently gendered. Design/methodology/approach The authors blend a systematic quantitative analysis of scholarly publications with qualitative analysis, identifying key themes and contributions. The corpus of material comprises over 1,300 scholarly publications, including both empirical and theoretical contributions. Findings This analysis shows that attention to the embeddedness of entrepreneurial activity in gendered social institutions is a clear legacy of women’s entrepreneurship research. The systematic quantitative review found that over one-third (36.6 per cent) of scholarly publications examines questions of family and/or labour market embeddedness in some way. The qualitative analysis identifies a rich array of themes over the past four decades and a growing global reach of scholarship in recent years. Originality/value This paper contributes to knowledge about the embeddedness of entrepreneurial activity. It offers a comprehensive review of how entrepreneurship is shaped by the embedding of such activity in two predominant (and gendered) social institutions – families and labour markets. It will be of use to scholars seeking an overview of this topic and considering new research questions to pursue.


Subject Budapest's balancing between traditional and non-traditional ties. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently received two important visitors in Budapest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (February 2) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 17). The short interval between them is symbolic of Hungary's foreign-policy balancing act. However, the Fidesz government's 'Eastern opening' strategy has increasingly shown its limits in the past year, prompting Orban to make gestures towards his Western allies. Impacts Central European allies are likely to distance themselves further from Hungary following Putin's visit to Budapest. Despite addressing discriminatory taxes on TV advertising, political control will continue to limit foreign media investments. Anti-Russian sentiment within Hungarian public opinion may open a window of opportunity for opposition parties.


Subject Job-creation under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration. Significance Following his 2014 general election victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to create millions of jobs and modernise the labour market. However, jobs in eight key employment sectors increased by only 32,000 in the third quarter of 2016-17, marking five years of steady decline in the rate of employment growth. Impacts India’s labour market is deeply distorted but no solutions are forthcoming. Youth unemployment risks violent protests, especially over public sector jobs reserved for marginalised groups. Patriarchal constraints will impede women’s participation in the paid workforce.


Significance However, it does not resolve the state of limbo in which Mongolia’s domestic politics, international relations and economic development has remained for the past several years. Prime Minister U Khurelsukh will consolidate his dominance of the MPP, largely continuing past policies. Impacts Legal uncertainties and corruption inquiries surrounding Oyu Tolgoi and other mining projects will negatively affect foreign investment. There will be Chinese pressure, and serious Mongolian consideration, of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Factional conflicts within the main opposition party may undermine Battulga’s hope for re-election as president next year. Climate change will put increasing pressure on Mongolia’s ecology and economy.


Significance In the past week, 80 people put forward their candidacies, including former Prime Ministers Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Ali Benflis. Several political figures and parties have said they will not participate in the elections, including the main Islamist parties, prominent opposition party Jil Jadid, and former prime minister and prominent opposition figure Ahmed Benbitour. The authorities are pushing ahead to hold elections in order to end weekly protests that have taken place since February and forced the resignation of long-standing former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in April. Impacts If elections go ahead and a president close to the military is elected, further repression may be inevitable. If elections are cancelled because they lack credibility, this might lead other senior military members to question Gaid Salah’s leadership. The economy risks reaching crisis point without a return to political stability.


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