The next Omani sultan will face an economic crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Economic Future

Significance The ratings agency said the change reflected the erosion of Oman’s foreign reserves in a context of low oil prices. Fears are rising over the country's longer-term economic future, as structural problems -- such as limited oil reserves and poor progress with diversification and fiscal reform -- intersect with political uncertainties over the succession process. Impacts Oman will seek new investments and loans from China -- a principal importer of Omani oil. Large deposits by neighbouring countries in Oman’s central bank could threaten financial stability if suddenly withdrawn. The external Oman Investment Fund may absorb the State General Reserve Fund, on which the government has drawn down heavily.

Brazil oil auctions fall short of expectations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investor ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Disappointing Result ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Dominant Operator

Subject Pre-salt oil auctions. Significance Two major oil auctions on November 6 and 7 frustrated the government’s expectations of achieving inflows of more than 110 billion reais (26.4 billion dollars). Major oil companies stayed away despite initial interest, and only three out of nine areas attracted bids. High prices, investments by state-controlled Petrobras in the areas and uncertainties about Brazil were key factors in the disappointing result. Impacts Petrobras will consolidate as the dominant operator of Brazil’s large oil reserves. Political uncertainties and high costs will continue to limit foreign investor enthusiasm. The government is likely to change the exploratory regime for future offshore auctions.

Establishing an EU internal market for depositaries

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 587-603
Author(s):  
Christopher Buttigieg ◽  
Joseph Agius ◽  
Sandra Saliba
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Mutual Recognition ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Internal Market ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States

Purpose This paper aims to examine the rationale for the establishment of a depositary passport as the next logical step in building an internal market for investment funds in the European Union (EU). It makes the point that the de facto prohibition of depositary passporting poses risks to financial stability and has an adverse impact on investor protection in EU member states, which do not have a fully developed funds industry. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses both the arguments in favour and against the adoption of a depositary passport. Moreover, it examines this proposal in the context of different approaches to fostering the internal market such as mutual recognition, harmonisation of regulation, reflexive governance of financial supervision and centralised supervision. Findings Based on the review of the current EU legal framework, this paper, subsequently, puts forward possible solutions for the establishment of an internal market for depositary business, which solutions have been discussed with various experts in the field to assess their feasibility in practice. Originality/value The paper contributes to the debate on the EU internal market in the field of asset management, which is topical in view of the upcoming review of the EU’s Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive.

Malaysia's Najib will be stronger in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Risks are high despite Turkey’s policy 'normalisation'

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government

Significance With the lira at a record low, the Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy this week, funding the market through competitive one-month repo tenders at rates of around 12.5%. In recent weeks, the government and Central Bank have taken a series of steps to modify the expansionary and in some cases unorthodox policies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Foreign portfolio investors could shun the Turkish market for some more months, and the risk premium will remain high. Although this year’s annual contraction in GDP, at 3-4%, may be less severe than expected, the recovery may decelerate or be interrupted. The lira may fall further with concerns about foreign debt, forex reserves, budgets, inflation and financial stability persisting into 2021. Given the weak lira, the jobs crisis and high inflation, the government will struggle to persuade the public it has managed the crisis well.

Morocco can get through COVID-19 and drought shocks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Job Creation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Private Funding ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Agricultural Yields

Significance This follows an earlier downgrade from Fitch. Morocco’s principal exports -- automotive, phosphates and tourism in particular -- are vulnerable to global market volatility. Besides the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country has also experienced a drought that hit agricultural yields and caused a rise in unemployment. Impacts The government will prioritise investments in sectors that will boost job creation to contain the risk of social unrest. Morocco’s automotive sector is expected to see a contraction in sales of 10-20% in its main European market over the next three years. The government will struggle to attract private funding for its new strategic investment fund as investment flows plummet globally. Phosphates will be central to Morocco’s strategy of developing both export markets and fertiliser processing facilities in Africa.

Policy will cut the risk of booming house prices

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Mortgage Backed Securities ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance The government in New Zealand, where the market is particularly buoyant, was the first to react in February. It now requires the Reserve Bank to consider house prices when setting monetary policy. Other governments and central banks have shown little sign of following suit. Impacts Calls are rising for the US Federal Reserve to taper its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, but it will remain cautious. Rising financial stability risks and house price booms increase the risk of insolvency for borrowers and non-performing-loans for banks. Higher house prices add indirectly to consumer price inflation if they push up rents, but this link takes time to materialise.

Diversification effect of ship investment funds in South Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-Boong Lee ◽  
Su-Han Woo ◽  
Jeong Seok Song ◽  
Byeongchan Seong ◽  
Keun-Sik Park
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Funds ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the diversification effect of the Korean Ship Investment Fund (KSF) under Markowitz portfolio theory by analyzing short-term and long-term relationships with stocks and bonds. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, unit root, correlation and cointegration tests are performed. Monthly data from 2004 to 2015 for stocks, bonds and KSFs are obtained for this study. Findings The correlation coefficients indicate that KSFs are uncorrelated with stocks and negatively correlated with bonds, and no long-term equilibrium relationships exist with all three variables by the Johansen and Engle-Granger cointegration tests. Research limitations/implications This paper makes contribution to the literature as follows: first, whereas the previous literature investigated diversification effect of ship investment using freight indices or freight rates which are not able to represent returns from ship investment, this study is the first study to use actual stock prices of the KSFs to the authors’ best knowledge; and second, diversification effect of ship investment represented by KSFs is empirically verified in the both short term and long term. Practical implications Policy-makers and managers of shipping companies can have sound ground that the KSFs are alternative and attractive assets to investors. It is also shown that the KSFs have potential to improve risk and return structure of investors on their own regardless of existence of incentives. Therefore, decisions of policy-makers can be made free from expectations for stronger incentives provided by the government. In addition, those countries that do not have such a ship investment platform may consider introducing a similar ship investment fund in order to revitalize the capital markets of the country. Originality/value This study holds its significance in investigating diversification properties of the KSFs for the first time in Korea since the KSFs were introduced.

Clustering the countries for quantifying the status of Covid-19 through time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Madurapperumage Erandathi ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
Chih-Chia Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government

Purpose This study aims to use financial stability and health facilities of countries, to cluster them for making a more consensus environment for manifesting the status of Covid-19 in a justifiable manner. The scarcity of the categorisation of the countries of the world in a common platform, and the requirement of manifesting the pandemic status such as Covid-19 in a justifiable manner create the demanding requirement. This study mainly focusses on assisting to generate a liable manifesto to criticise the span of viral infection of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 over the globe. Design/methodology/approach Data for this study has been gathered from official websites of the World Bank, and the world in data. The Louvain clustering method has been used to cluster the countries based on their financial strength and health facilities. The resulted clusters are visualised using Silhouette plots. The anomalies of the clusters had been used to quantify the pandemic situation. The status of Covid-19 has been manifested with the time series analysis through python programming. Findings The countries of the world have been clustered into seven, where developed countries divided into three clusters and the countries with transition economies and developing clustered together into four clusters. The time series analysis of recognised anomalies of the clusters assist to monitor the government responses and analyse the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic. Originality/value This study’s resulted clusters are highly valuable as a division of countries of the whole world for evaluating the health systems and for the regional levels. Further, the results of time series analysis are beneficial in monitoring the government responses and analysing the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic.

South-east Asian central banks will power integration

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Leadership Transition ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Power ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Subject Central banks in South-east Asia. Significance Muhammad Ibrahim succeeded Zeti Akhtar Aziz as Malaysia's central bank governor on May 1; he was deputy governor from 2010. The government has thus undercut concerns that its choice would be politically motivated at a time of weakening economic growth and 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund-related problems. This leadership transition raises broader questions of institutional capacity among central banks in the other ASEAN core economies as the region integrates financially. Impacts Muhammad Ibrahim's appointment will likely further strengthen the Malaysian central bank's independence. In Indonesia, political pressure by the administration and parliament on Bank Indonesia will gradually erode its independence. Military pressure on the Bank of Thailand is likely to grow.

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