US output will negate most of extended OPEC cuts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Fiscal Stress ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
Dependent State

Significance The US shale oil industry has mounted a comeback over the past six months. After a deep recession brought on by plunging oil prices starting in mid-2014, the sector is growing again as prices have stabilised and US oil output is rising, approaching record levels once again. OPEC’s May 26 meeting was a potential threat to that recovery, but the cartel’s decision to hold the line on its regime of production cuts ensures continued growth for US oil. Impacts US oil exports will rise this year on higher output from the Permian oilfield, which is well connected to Gulf Coast export facilities. An uptick in drilling will contribute to the overall tightening of the US labour market, pushing up wages and oilfield services costs. Restored royalty flows will ease some fiscal stress on oil-dependent state governments such as Alaska and North Dakota.

Export market for US crude oil will grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Output ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Exports

Subject US oil exports. Significance When Congress in December 2015 struck down legislation that strictly limited oil exports, it was expected to unleash a flood of new US crude onto global markets. The actual fallout has been more complicated. Exports have hit record highs in recent weeks, but overall shipments by early August are actually lower than they were a year ago because of falling domestic output and fewer arbitrage opportunities. Still, US oil is finding its way to new markets across Latin America, Europe and Asia. Impacts Midstream companies will benefit from development of export infrastructure on the US Gulf Coast. Reduced WTI-Brent spreads will shrink the margins of US refiners. US producers, especially those in Texas and around the Gulf Coast, will benefit from having greater access to global markets. New US export routes will offer commercial opportunities for oil traders.

Washington will speed US energy export growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Environmental Groups ◽  
Extraction Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Market Consequences

Significance Over the past decade, US energy production has significantly increased through investments in infrastructure and new extraction technology, particularly fracking. This has helped the United States become less reliant on energy imports and its emergence as an energy exporter will have significant political and market consequences. Impacts Environmental groups will seek to use US courts and friendly state governments to oppose increased hydrocarbon development. US gas exporters will compete with Australian producers to supply Asian demand. Energy market stability concerns will maintain US security commitments to the Gulf states despite the US domestic supply uptick.

Textual analysis for China’s financial markets: a review and discussion

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Huang ◽  
Wenfeng Wu ◽  
Tong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Textual Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survey Paper ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Important Field

Purpose This is a literature survey paper. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the latest developments in textual analysis on China’s financial markets, highlighting its differences from existing works in the US markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors review the literature and carry out an experiment of sentiment analysis based on a small sample of Chinese news articles. Findings Based on the experiment of sentiment analysis, there is limited evidence on the association between sentiment and other contemporaneous or future returns. Originality/value The supply of financial textual information has grown exponentially in the past decades. Technological advancements in recent years make the programming-based analysis an effective tool to digest such information. The authors highlight the use of credible textual information and discuss directions of research in this important field.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

'Deepfakes' could irreparably damage public trust

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
National Security ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Department Of Homeland Security ◽  
Digital Videos ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Senate

Subject Deepfake technology. Significance The US Senate on October 24 passed an act that requires the Department of Homeland Security to publish a yearly report on how ‘deepfake’ technology may be used to harm national security. Deepfakes are believable digital videos, audios or photos created using artificial intelligence (AI) to portray a person saying or doing something that the person never said or did, or portraying an event as real that never took place. The level of sophistication of this technology has leapfrogged over the past two years, raising a wide spectrum of concerns. Impacts A market for anti-deepfake verification technologies will emerge. Lawmakers will need to define the lines between art/entertainment and malicious deepfakes. Upcoming elections will be impacted by the existence of this technology.

Weak forint will not shift Hungary’s monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
Roll Back

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.

A review of changes in the delivery of information to users

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 70-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike McGrath
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
The World

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider the changes that have taken place in Interlending & Document Supply over the past 12 years. Design/methodology/approach – Research of the past 48 literature reviews published in Interlending & Document Supply. Findings – Over the past 12 years, Interlending & Document Supply has declined dramatically in much of the world, although less so in the US. It is likely to increase in the developing world but not as much as to compensate for the decline elsewhere. Originality/value – This is the only study that has been made of the changes in document supply in this century.

China will help Brunei ease reliance on crude exports

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Petrochemical Complex ◽  
The Past ◽  
Local Labour ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Chinese Workers ◽  
Chinese Foreign Direct Investment

Subject Brunei's economic diversification. Significance Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, ruler of Brunei for the past 50 years, is turning to Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and engineering companies to expand his country’s infrastructure and reduce its dependence on crude oil exports. The first phase of the China-funded Pulau Muara Besar (PMB) oil refinery and petrochemical complex is due to open in early 2019. Impacts A rise in oil prices will drive Brunei’s GDP growth in the short term. Reliance on Chinese companies will increase the number of Chinese workers brought to Brunei, limiting opportunities for local labour. Within ASEAN, Brunei will support Beijing on South China Sea issues.

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