Election rigging may erode Africa’s democratic gains

Subject Electoral manipulation in Africa Significance In many emerging African democracies, authoritarian leaders who democratised only reluctantly have found new ways to manipulate elections to remain in power. Vote buying is a common strategy but so are more ‘hidden’ forms of manipulation such as gerrymandering or biasing the electoral roll in favour of ruling party supporters. Combined with the legitimate advantages of incumbency, this has contributed to a decline in opposition victories in African elections: to just above 10% in recent years from 35% in the early 1990s. Impacts Electoral manipulation undermines public support for the political system and is correlated with political instability and violence. The absence of meaningful political competition in many states means that elections do not promote more accountable or effective government. On average, authoritarian governments that hold elections can be expected to be more stable than those that do not.

Significance A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Impacts Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election. A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support. Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.


2017 ◽  
pp. 110-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Kużelewska

This article analyses the impact of constitutional referendums on the political system in Italy. There were three constitutional referendums conducted in 2001, 2006 and 2016. All of them have been organised by the ruling parties, however, only the first one was successful. In the subsequent referendums, the proposals for amending the constitution have been rejected by voters. The article finds that lack of public support for the government resulted in voting „no” in the referendum.


Author(s):  
Y. S. Kudryashova

During the government of AK Party army leaders underprivileged to act as an exclusive guarantor preserving a secular regime in the country. The political balance between Secular and Islamite elites was essentially removed after Erdogan was elected Turkish President. Consistently toughening authoritarian regime of a ruling party deeply accounts for a military coup attempt and earlier periodically occurred disturbance especially among the young. The methods of a coup showed the profundity of a split and the lack of cohesion in Turkish armed forces. Erdogan made the best use of a coup attempt’s opportunities to concentrate all power in his hands and to consolidate a present regime. The mass support of the population during a coup attempt ensured opportunities for a fundamental reorganization of a political system. Revamped Constitution at most increases political powers of the President.


2009 ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
Jean Lpuis Briquet

- According to the standard thesis, the political crisis in Italy between 1992 and 1994 and the collapse of the Christian Democrat regime are related to the revelation of corruption of the political elite by the judiciary. However, judicial revelations and corruption scandals have regularly occurred in Italy, before and after this crisis, without provoking a drastic political change and the reject of the political system by the electorate. Considering this paradox, the article suggests an alternate account of the 1992-1994 events that underline the way in which the political competition had been affected by the scandals: the moral crusades against corruption had in this period a political impact because they had been relayed and supported by emerging political actors in order to challenge the established elites and to claim a leading role in reshaping the political system.


Significance If the referendum passes, it will lead to significant changes to the political system, including new executive posts, the devolution of more national revenues to county governments and measures to ensure more women are elected to parliament. Impacts Fully implementing the BBI’s wide-ranging reforms may take years, and if mishandled could delay the 2022 elections. The proposals will significantly increase the cost of government, which in turn will exacerbate the shrinking fiscal space. An enlarged executive encompassing a broader range of leaders may boost political stability, but it will likely also aggravate graft.


Author(s):  
Oren Barak

Since Lebanon’s independence in the mid-1940s, its military—the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)—has played a pivotal role in the country’s politics. The political role of the LAF in Lebanon might seem surprising since the Lebanese state did not militarize, and its political leaders have continuously managed to keep their military relatively weak and small. Indeed, in this respect Lebanon has been markedly different from its close neighbors (Syria and Israel), but also from several other Middle Eastern states (especially Egypt and Iraq), where the military, which was large and powerful, was continuously involved in politics. Additionally, both Lebanon and the LAF have persistently striven to distance themselves from regional conflicts since 1949, particularly in relation to the Palestinian issue, albeit not always successfully. Still, and despite these ostensibly unfavorable factors for the military’s involvement in politics in Lebanon, the LAF has played an important political role in the state since its independence. This role, which has been marked by elements of continuity and change over the years, included mediation and arbitration between rival political factions (in 1945–1958, 2008, 2011, and 2019); attempts to dominate the political system (in 1958–1970 and 1988–1990); intervention in the Lebanese civil war (in 1975–1976 and 1982–1984); attempts to regain its balancing role in politics (in 1979–1982 and 1984–1988); and facilitating the state’s postwar reconstruction (since 1991). The political role of the military in Lebanon can be explained by several factors. First, the weakness of Lebanon’s political system and its inability to resolve crises between its members. Second, Lebanon’s divided society and its members’ general distrust towards its civilian politicians. Third, the basic characteristics of Lebanon’s military, which, in most periods, enjoyed broad public support that cuts across the lines of community, region, and family, and found appeal among domestic and external audiences, which, in their turn, acquiesced to its political role in the state.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Vauleon

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to focus on Rousseau's three major works: the epistolary novel Julia. Or, The New Eloisa, one of the eighteenth century's best sellers, the political essay The Social Contract, and the pedagogical treatise Emile: or On Education. It seeks to explore the innovative management theories Rousseau develops as he embarks in the simultaneous composition of these three major works, particularly as he conceptualizes his ideal society and envisions a brand new political system, one that would take into account the natural state of humankind in order to socialize them more efficiently. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores Rousseau's solution to these obstacles, and examines his understanding of censorship, as well as the surreptitious control of people's values, tastes, and aspirations. His vision of humanity is very similar to that of “a machine to be put together by skillful devices”, assuming “that the materials of which it is composed are colorless and lifeless”. Findings – The conclusions reached in this paper hinge upon, in significant part, Rousseau's approach to management science, and the individual's subjection to authority, as well as the overarching necessity for any form of power to be imperceptible. Originality/value – The paper shows that in Rousseau's mind, people are mere pawns on the political chessboard, “to be arranged by the fancy of the legislator.”


Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.


Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.


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