Russian vote shows regional grip but shifts in Moscow

Subject Different lessons from regional elections in Russia. Significance Two different trends emerged from the September 10 local elections. All the regional governors approved by President Vladimir Putin, most of them recent interim appointees, were elected without serious competition. At a lower level, the opposition Yabloko and United Democrats scored surprisingly well in municipal elections in Moscow. Impacts Opposition leader Alexey Navalny may have lost ground by distancing himself from the Moscow elections only to see opposition wins. The mayor of Moscow showed a subtle approach to the 2018 mayoral election by welcoming the city's new political diversity. Confirmation of Putin's choice of governor in Sevastopol is unlikely to end power struggles among local political factions.

Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.


Subject The United Russia party's search for a meaningful role. Significance President Vladimir Putin has reaffirmed the central role of the governing United Russia party but instructed it to improve its performance. He was speaking on day two of a December 7-8 party congress held in the aftermath of reverses in regional elections and falling popular support. The party duly promised to mend its ways with a training school to raise standards and new ethics procedures, but offered no new policy ideas. Impacts Putin snubbed United Russia by being re-elected as an independent but has turned back to the party in hope of reinvigorating it. United Russia has no collective voice on foreign policy issues such as Ukraine or Western sanctions; it must stick to its assigned role. The Kremlin will watch United Russia's regional governors closely and assess their ability to contain local grievances. If United Russia is failing, the Kremlin may have to examine alternative mechanisms for picking Putin's successor.


Significance The legislation is the most radical and comprehensive reform of centre-regional relations since Vladimir Putin became president in 1999. Formalising and consolidating a steady process of political centralisation, it further shifts powers from the regional heads and assemblies to the president and the federal executive. Impacts After years of attempts to forge a Russia-wide ethos, local identity politics will become more visible. The September regional elections are another opportunity to pre-select regional leaders before they are approved by voters. Regional leaders removed and replaced ahead of the elections may include the Communist head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov.


Subject Local elections and national politics. Significance Interim President Michel Temer is impeded not only by his interim status but also by local elections due in October. Politicians may fear losing further electoral support if they side with Temer and his Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) if he is unable to tackle major problems in the short term, particularly unemployment. Impacts The business elite will side with Temer and the PMDB, but other parties will offer muted support if the economic crisis is not addressed. However, failure to ease the crisis could benefit the Workers' Party, which conversely stands to lose if Temer is successful. Parties will prioritise municipal elections over national issues to boost their position before the 2018 general elections.


Significance Opposition to the retirement age increase is widespread, with frequent street protests, Communist successes in the regional elections and talk of a referendum. President Vladimir Putin initially stayed out of the debate but finally stepped in on August 29, offering some concessions but backing the thrust of the reform in a television address to the nation. Impacts The pension reform controversy shows the limits to Putin's vision of a purely technocratic, apolitical government. The issue also highlights the deficiencies of state-controlled narratives when people do not want to listen. The Communist Party has a rare chance to grow into a stronger force but is unlikely to seize this opportunity under its current leadership.


Subject Prospects for Russian politics to end-2017. Significance President Vladimir Putin is likely to announce in late summer that he will run for re-election in March 2018. Regional elections in September will provide indications of strategies for boosting turnout in the presidential contest. Electoral activity amid ongoing economic problems creates scope for popular protest, which the authorities can contain, and for competition in governing circles that will become more visible in Putin's next term. Hopes that US and EU sanctions may ease or end have all but disappeared.


1992 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 211-229
Author(s):  
Cheryl D. Young ◽  
Robert Stein

This paper suggests that individual voting behavior in municipal elections is most closely associated with voter concern with municipal economic development and basic city services. Redistributive issues and race are, as such, irrelevant in local elections. Candidates for local office should, therefore, avoid such issues and associate themselves with economic growth potential and better provision of services. To test this fiscal federal assertion, a panel survey of registered voters in Houston, Texas, was conducted during the city’s 1985 mayoral election. The findings support the assertion that municipal electoral politics are limited by the very policies with which municipal governments are charged.


Significance Regional elections held on September 9 brought the United Russia party its worst results in a decade. President Vladimir Putin has already embarked on his annual cull of governors, whose interim successors can normally expect trouble-free election the following September. Impacts New interim St Petersburg Mayor Alexander Beglov may not run in 2019, requiring careful candidate selection in Russia's second city. United Russia will struggle to rebuild its image after losing control of three regional assemblies on top of four governor-level disasters. As opposition parties are virtually out of the picture, the Communists and Liberal Democrats will partly fill that space.


Res Publica ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-587
Author(s):  
William Fraeys

On October 8th 2000 municipal elections were held in Belgium to renew the local councils which had been elected in 1994. In the Walloon region and in Flanders in addition provincial elections were organised.  The aim of the article is to try and measure globally where the political forces stand after these elections and among others to assess whether significant swings have take place since june 13th, 1999, when the latest parliamentary and regional elections took place.  On the basis of an estimation of the global results in the municipal elections of the various parties in the Walloon region, in Flanders and in Brussels, backed up by the actual results of the provincial elections, one can say that the liberal group bas strengthened its first position.The Christian democrats, who make up the second most important political group and the Socialists, who rank third, have regained a large part of the losses they incurred onjune 13th, 1999.Although improving their results in comparison with 1994, the Green parties lost again part of their advance they registered in the parliamentary and regional elections and which had probably been boosted by the dioxin crisis.The frenchspeaking far right practically disappears, whereas the Vlaams Blok obtained an average of 15 % of the Flemish electorate in the municipal and provincial elections, a level which it had reached in the 1999 parliamentary elections.


Significance The plan includes ambitious reforms and investment projects, but the Commission’s critical first reactions highlight questions around the feasibility of some of these reforms and the state’s capacity to implement them. The Commission will approve or reject the plan by September 30. Impacts Power struggles within the National Liberals, the senior coalition party, could weaken government ability to implement planned reforms. Success is important for the junior coalition party coordinating the plan, USR-PLUS, whose appeal relies on its expertise and competence. In several eastern EU states, the RRF could further entrench state capture and clientelistic networks.


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