New Angolan oil investments could prove elusive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
The State ◽  
Management Team ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance As Angola struggles to cope with its deepest financial crisis since the end of the civil war in 2002, Sonangol profits have fallen dramatically from 2.4 billion dollars in 2009 to 276 million dollars in 2015. The company's new management team, led by Isabel dos Santos, daughter of long-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is overseeing a necessary shake-up of the traditionally opaque parastatal. Impacts A probe by US regulators into a 350-million-dollar payment made by BP and Cobalt to Sonangol could implicate ruling party officials. Isabel dos Santos will face renewed pressure to sell shares or controlling interests in corporate entities linked to the state. New investment decisions could largely depend on ongoing negotiations with international oil companies (IOCs) over tax terms.

‘Jihadi pill’ will spread beyond the Middle East

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Tensions ◽  
Migration Flows

Subject The expansion of Captagon. Significance The seven years of civil war in Syria have seen the production and smuggling of the amphetamine Captagon in that country rise substantially. Concern is growing that migration flows and increasingly easy availability will make the drug -- already popular across the Middle East -- fashionable in Europe and potentially beyond. Impacts The manufacture of Captagon could help perpetuate Syria’s war, supporting insurgent operations and corrupting the state. The shift of production from Lebanon to Syria will encourage larger-scale operations, boosting global supply. The spread of Captagon use in areas of heavy migration in Europe may exacerbate ethnic tensions.

U.S. oil company stock returns and currency fluctuations

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 974-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Mollick ◽  
Khoa H Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Purpose – The purpose of this is paper is to pay a closer look at the 2008-2009 financial crisis (and its aftermath) and analyzes stock returns of nine major US oil companies as well as the oil and gas sector under daily data from January 1992 to April 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The authors adopt the arbitrage pricing theory model to examine the relationship between stock returns and their influences including oil price return, yield spreads, and US dollar index return. The authors also provide a test for structural changes in each regression model of return series to capture for multiple breaks. To examine the asymmetric effect of oil price returns on stock returns, the authors separate oil price returns series into two series: positive changes in oil price and negative changes in oil price. Findings – The authors find stock returns of oil companies as well as the oil and gas sector are positively affected by oil prices and have stronger effects in the downward direction. Interestingly, The authors find the effects of oil price movements on stock returns increase over time. The authors examine the possibility that investors wishing to hedge against a weakening USD invest in US oil companies and find that more than half of these companies benefit from a weaker USD against the JPY, while all strongly benefit from a weaker USD against major currencies. Originality/value – The authors employ daily data for two-decade period including the last global financial crisis. Due to the long-term period covered in this study, sequential Bai-Perron tests are used to detect structural breaks of stock return series. In addition, the data-dependent procedures result in good specifications throughout with white-noise processes in almost all cases.

Libya stabilisation force could be counterproductive

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Political Power ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Force ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type

Significance This is part of UN-facilitated talks to agree on a national unity government that would end the political power struggle driving Libya's civil war. Should a Government of National Accord be formed in Tripoli, its security would be uncertain as Libya lacks a unified security force that would be loyal to the state alone. This has raised questions in the European Union of whether a foreign stabilisation force may be necessary. Although appetite in European capitals for an intervention appears to be generally low, such a scenario cannot be ruled out altogether. Impacts Despite the UN Envoy's optimism, he must still win over the GNC before a consensus government is formed. A united administration would prefer to avoid a foreign force guarding it, even at the urging of key international actors. In the unlikely event that European troops are involved in such a force, there may be a risk of blowback attacks in Europe.

The Revolutionary Democracy of Ethiopia: A Wartime Ideology Both Shaping and Shaped by Peacetime Policy Needs

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 653-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lovise Aalen
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Expiry Date ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), victor in the civil war in 1991, has since transformed into an authoritarian party. While this transition is well covered in the literature, few studies have explored how the party’s ideology has adapted after its position was consolidated. This article addresses this gap, by analysing the EPRDF’s ideology of revolutionary democracy, and how the interpretation of it has changed over time. The Ethiopian case shows that wartime ideologies should not be considered as static remnants of the past. Instead, the ideology has served as a flexible political tool for controlling the state and for justifying or concealing major policy changes. More recent protests and ruptures in the ruling party, however, indicate that revolutionary democracy may have an expiry date. There seems thus to be a limit to how long a wartime ideology can provide power to uphold a rebel government’s hegemony and coherence.

US rhetoric on South Sudan may prove hollow

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
The South ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
To Come

Subject US policy towards South Sudan Significance Senior US officials have recently taken a harder line with South Sudan’s leaders over the country’s civil war, having resolved that President Salva Kiir’s government is principally to blame for the ongoing conflict and the collapse of a 2015 peace deal. After two senior US officials visited Juba to make it clear that “a serious re-examination” of US policy was underway, the administration announced a new round of sanctions designations and more public condemnation. Washington has hinted that further pressure is to come, but the spike in rhetoric may be more indicative of frustration than of a new strategy. Impacts The HLRF is unlikely to rescue the peace agreement, setting the stage for more violence as the dry season approaches. The government’s already low levels of popular legitimacy will further erode amid conflict and economic decay. Absent US leadership, Europe and the UN are unlikely to forge new initiatives without a clear request from the region. Further US sanctions may bar US oil companies from entering the South Sudan market and deter other investors.

Algeria talks offer holds slim chance of breakthrough

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political System ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Concrete Action

Significance Months of protests continue as dissatisfied Algerians demand a complete, not cosmetic, overhaul of the political system. As the army, politicians, and opposition actors all want to avoid a descent into civil war, this encourages caution on all sides. Impacts The opposition may weaken unless it can agree on a concrete action plan. Foreign oil companies will be wary of investing in Algeria’s hydrocarbon sector as Sonatrach is involved in a corruption scandal. Worsening economic conditions could turn the protests violent and create further instability.

Mind the gap!

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-9
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
Present Moment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The idea of mindfulness – the state achieved by focusing awareness on the present moment, while calmly acknowledging and accepting feelings, thoughts, sensations – has ancient roots, but has only recently begun to gain significant adoption as a mainstream technique or therapy. Indeed, it has seemed to have gained more credence and followers in a post-global financial crisis, smartphone-saturated world where getting away from things and focusing on the good things in life seem to matter much more to greater numbers of people. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Local fiefdoms will undermine Syrian service provision

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
International Aid ◽  
The State ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
The Government

Significance Syria’s civil war is fought not just with bombs and bullets, but with salaries and services. The government has been able to win this aspect of the war by denying services to targeted opposition-held areas, and depopulating districts by constraining residents’ access to basic necessities such as food, water, fuel and electricity. Impacts The Syrian state will be deeply fragmented for the foreseeable future. Rival local fiefdoms will complicate efforts to direct international aid funds for reconstruction. Islamic extremist groups will find ‘havens’ to wage a long-lasting insurgency against the state, despite reduced access to funds.

Fighting elephants, suffering grass: oil exploitation in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 791-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikechukwu Umejesi ◽  
Michael Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cultural Theory ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
The State ◽  
Environmental Advocacy ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand the interactions of the different actors – the state, multinational oil and gas companies, environmental advocacy groups and local people – in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on interviews, observations and focus group discussions, as well as on archival materials relating to the development of the oil and gas industry during the colonial period (i.e. pre-1960 Nigeria). Findings – A cultural theory-based analysis of the environmental risk perceptions of the different actors reveals a profoundly unconstructive institutional configuration, in which the collusion of two “solidarities – the oil companies (individualism) and the state (hierarchy) – has led to the exclusion of the local communities (egalitarianism) who have found themselves impoverished and marginalised (fatalism). With these two “elephants” – individualism/hierarchy and egalitarianism/fatalism – pitted against each other, it has been the “grass” – the natural environment that has suffered. Practical implications – Giving the local communities a stake in the wealth-creating process, from which they are at present excluded, would shift the pattern of inter-solidarity engagement from one in which two “active” (i.e. non-fatalist) voices silence the third to one in which each voice is able to make itself heard and is then responsive to the others. Originality/value – Innovative and current on under-researched topic and geography. The main fieldwork was conducted between 2007 and 2008, with further field visits and updates between 2009 and 2013.

Global resource nationalism is set to soften

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Resource Nationalism ◽  
Policy Adjustment

Subject Commodity-producer countries react to low prices and sector sluggishness. Significance Over the past decade, with the commodities cycle at its height, producing countries turned to policies of resource nationalism. With the cycle now in a downturn and the prices crashing to lows not seen since the financial crisis, governments are facing the consequences of their past decision-making. They will need to rethink their policies to attract investment and encourage the development of sustainable extractive industries. Impacts Primary exporters of specific commodities will defend their market share. The speed of policy adjustment will affect perceptions of political risk, which will become increasingly important in investment decisions. Companies' understanding of political risk will get more nuanced rather than simply a delineation between developed and emerging countries.

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