US electric car rollout will hinge on public policy

Significance Electric vehicles (EVs) remain a tiny fraction of the overall auto fleet, but sales are growing thanks to falling costs, enticing new models and government support such as the EV tax credit. How quickly EVs take over the roads has implications for a host of industries, but especially for the future of oil demand. Oil producers are watching closely to see how quickly consumers take up EVs. Impacts Lithium, nickel and cobalt will see strong demand as EV production increases, putting supplies under pressure. More EVs will boost efforts to build ‘smart grids’ that integrate EV batteries into the power network. Democratic-controlled US states and cities will provide more generous EV support, leading to a patchy overall rollout. Autonomous vehicles are more likely to be electric-powered so their adoption rate will be material to overall EV demand.

Subject The electric vehicle industry in China. Significance A new subsidy regime for electric vehicles (EVs) in China aims to improve the quality of new models in order to capture a growing share of export markets. Chinese carmakers dominate domestic sales of EVs but struggle to compete in export markets, where foreign models boast better performance. Impacts China’s push for EVs, particularly electric buses, suggests that diesel demand will moderate and then fall in coming years. Urban air, in particular, will benefit from the drop in diesel fumes. The electricity system will accommodate rising demand from EVs without serious stress. Substituting imported crude oil for vehicle fuel with domestically sourced electricity may improve energy security.


Subject Impact of electric vehicles on oil demand. Significance Even with high sales, electric vehicles (EVs) will have limited impact on oil demand over the next decade. However, by 2040 the cumulative impact could be large, potentially representing more than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of displaced fuel demand. While EVs are proving successful as light-duty vehicles (LDV), they are not yet penetrating the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector where current EV ranges are a constraint. Growth in HDVs could offset any improvement in fuel efficiency on future oil demand. Impacts The belief that EVs are the technology of the future could affect investors' perception of the oil industry's growth prospects. Positive consumer reception of the new sub-40,000-dollar EV models could boost investment in lithium-ion battery production. High EV sales bode ill for alternative transport technologies such as hydrogen-fuel-cell cars Social mobilty services replacing private-vehicle ownership in the long term would transform EVs prospects.


Significance In a belated attempt to invigorate the country's relatively slow embrace of a technology widely seen as central to a low-carbon energy system, the German government introduced new incentives to encourage take-up at the beginning of July. Impacts The development of EVs in Europe will be accelerated by the move towards autonomous vehicles. Competition from outsider manufacturers may limit the German car industry's ability to replicate its traditional strengths in the EV market. The climate impact could be limited if the slowdown in renewables deployment and the effective decline in nuclear power persist.


Significance One of its priorities will be the development of new telecommunication rules, with the aim of accelerating the development of 5G standards. Impacts 5G would meet the requirement for near-instantaneous communications and responses between autonomous vehicles. 5G would facilitate the operation of smart grids in the energy sector, helping to balance supply and demand across the network. Deployment of 5G across the EU may slow down if the Commission’s ambitions are not shared by all member states.


Subject Electric vehicles and oil demand. Significance There are now more than 2.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads across the world. Although this pales compared with more than 1 billion petrol and diesel vehicles worldwide, EV sales grew by more than 40% in 2016 and the first seven months of 2017. In recent months, the United Kingdom and France have announced that they will ban sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2040, while China and India, far larger markets, have ambitions to end ICE vehicle sales sooner. Impacts Rising EV numbers will reduce the energy intensity of economic activity. Oil demand growth will remain low, constrained by rising fuel efficiency as well as EV adoption. Small increases initially in electricity generation will be required, becoming larger over time, allowing gradual adaptation. Authorities have little incentive to create charging networks; manufacturers are creating their own, but incompatibility may hit adoption. In unmanned EVs, regulation will lag development; country competition may speed progress but mass adoption is unlikely in the next decade.


Significance Countries that do not comply risk secondary sanctions. Impacts Indian refiners will maximise contracted volumes from other Middle Eastern producers. Promoting electric vehicles and compressed natural gas for transport may have a small impact on India’s oil demand growth in the short term. Tensions over sanctions could stymie deepening India-US security ties.


Author(s):  
Mohamad Nassereddine

AbstractRenewable energy sources are widely installed across countries. In recent years, the capacity of the installed renewable network supports large percentage of the required electrical loads. The relying on renewable energy sources to support the required electrical loads could have a catastrophic impact on the network stability under sudden change in weather conditions. Also, the recent deployment of fast charging stations for electric vehicles adds additional load burden on the electrical work. The fast charging stations require large amount of power for short period. This major increase in power load with the presence of renewable energy generation, increases the risk of power failure/outage due to overload scenarios. To mitigate the issue, the paper introduces the machine learning roles to ensure network stability and reliability always maintained. The paper contains valuable information on the data collection devises within the power network, how these data can be used to ensure system stability. The paper introduces the architect for the machine learning algorithm to monitor and manage the installed renewable energy sources and fast charging stations for optimum power grid network stability. Case study is included.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-386
Author(s):  
Seung Ho Park ◽  
Gerardo R. Ungson

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to uncover the underlying drivers of sustained high performing companies based on a field study of 127 companies in Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese (BRIC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging markets. Understanding these companies provides a complementary way of appraising the growth, development and transformation of emerging markets. The authors synthesize the findings in an overarching framework that covers six strategies for building and sustaining legacy that leads to the succession of intergenerational wealth over time: overcoming institutional voids, inclusive markets, deepening localization, nurturing government support, building core competencies and harnessing human capital. The authors relate these strategies to different levels of development using Prahalad and Hart’s BOP framework. Design/methodology/approach This study examines the underlying drivers of sustained high-performance companies based on field studies from an initial set of 105,260 BRIC companies and close to 500 companies in ASEAN. The methods employed four screening tests to arrive at a selection of the highest-performing firms: 70 firms in the BRIC nations and 58 firms from ASEAN. Following the selection, the authors constructed cases using primary interviews and secondary data, with the assistance of Ernst & Young and with academic colleagues in Manila. These studies were originally conducted in two separate time periods and reported accordingly. This paper synthesizes the findings of these two studies to arrive at an extended integrative framework. Findings From the cases, the authors examine six strategies for building and sustaining legacy that lead to high performance over time: overcoming institutional voids, creating inclusive markets, deepening localization, nurturing government support, building core competencies and harnessing human capital. To address the evolving state of institutional voids in these countries, the authors employ similar methods to hypothesize the placement of these strategies in the context of the world economic pyramid, initially formulated as the “bottom of the pyramid” framework. Originality/value This paper synthesizes and extends the authors’ previous works by proposing the concept of legacy to describe the emergence and succession of local exemplary firms in emerging markets. This study aims to complement extant measures of nation-growth based primarily on GDP. The paper also extends the literature on institutional voids in shifting the focus from the mix of voids to their evolving state. Altogether, the paper provides a complementary narrative on assessing the market potential of emerging markets by adopting several categories of performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shweta Banerjee

PurposeThere are ethical, legal, social and economic arguments surrounding the subject of autonomous vehicles. This paper aims to discuss some of the arguments to communicate one of the current issues in the rising field of artificial intelligence.Design/methodology/approachMaking use of widely available literature that the author has read and summarised showcasing her viewpoints, the author shows that technology is progressing every day. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are at the forefront of technological advancement today. The manufacture and innovation of new machines have revolutionised our lives and resulted in a world where we are becoming increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence.FindingsTechnology might appear to be getting out of hand, but it can be effectively used to transform lives and convenience.Research limitations/implicationsFrom robotics to autonomous vehicles, countless technologies have and will continue to make the lives of individuals much easier. But, with these advancements also comes something called “future shock”.Practical implicationsFuture shock is the state of being unable to keep up with rapid social or technological change. As a result, the topic of artificial intelligence, and thus autonomous cars, is highly debated.Social implicationsThe study will be of interest to researchers, academics and the public in general. It will encourage further thinking.Originality/valueThis is an original piece of writing informed by reading several current pieces. The study has not been submitted elsewhere.


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