Cheaper electric cars could help subdue oil demand

Subject Impact of electric vehicles on oil demand. Significance Even with high sales, electric vehicles (EVs) will have limited impact on oil demand over the next decade. However, by 2040 the cumulative impact could be large, potentially representing more than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of displaced fuel demand. While EVs are proving successful as light-duty vehicles (LDV), they are not yet penetrating the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector where current EV ranges are a constraint. Growth in HDVs could offset any improvement in fuel efficiency on future oil demand. Impacts The belief that EVs are the technology of the future could affect investors' perception of the oil industry's growth prospects. Positive consumer reception of the new sub-40,000-dollar EV models could boost investment in lithium-ion battery production. High EV sales bode ill for alternative transport technologies such as hydrogen-fuel-cell cars Social mobilty services replacing private-vehicle ownership in the long term would transform EVs prospects.

Subject Electric vehicles and oil demand. Significance There are now more than 2.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads across the world. Although this pales compared with more than 1 billion petrol and diesel vehicles worldwide, EV sales grew by more than 40% in 2016 and the first seven months of 2017. In recent months, the United Kingdom and France have announced that they will ban sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2040, while China and India, far larger markets, have ambitions to end ICE vehicle sales sooner. Impacts Rising EV numbers will reduce the energy intensity of economic activity. Oil demand growth will remain low, constrained by rising fuel efficiency as well as EV adoption. Small increases initially in electricity generation will be required, becoming larger over time, allowing gradual adaptation. Authorities have little incentive to create charging networks; manufacturers are creating their own, but incompatibility may hit adoption. In unmanned EVs, regulation will lag development; country competition may speed progress but mass adoption is unlikely in the next decade.


Significance Electric vehicles (EVs) remain a tiny fraction of the overall auto fleet, but sales are growing thanks to falling costs, enticing new models and government support such as the EV tax credit. How quickly EVs take over the roads has implications for a host of industries, but especially for the future of oil demand. Oil producers are watching closely to see how quickly consumers take up EVs. Impacts Lithium, nickel and cobalt will see strong demand as EV production increases, putting supplies under pressure. More EVs will boost efforts to build ‘smart grids’ that integrate EV batteries into the power network. Democratic-controlled US states and cities will provide more generous EV support, leading to a patchy overall rollout. Autonomous vehicles are more likely to be electric-powered so their adoption rate will be material to overall EV demand.


Subject Lithium market Significance Lithium consumption by the battery sector is expected to outstrip traditional sources of demand for the first time this year. Over the next three years, around 70% of the increase in incremental demand for lithium is expected to be driven by growth of electric vehicle production. However, after nearly doubling over the last five years, the pace of growth of lithium demand from the consumer-electronics sector is likely to slow. Impacts Several ventures are investigating lithium clay projects as a by-product of geothermal power plants, but these are untested commercially. Many lithium deposits contain harmful materials and research will continue into ways of safely extracting these materials. Lithium-ion battery capacity needs to add 600 gigawatt hours or 60 billion dollars investment to achieve 30% vehicle sector penetration. Beijing has established a new sales target of 7 million electric vehicles for 2025, which would represent a tenfold increase on 2016.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mohajer ◽  
Mohsen Gerami

RESUMOO Irã como país em desenvolvimento está enfrentando uma quantidade excessiva de poluição do ar em suas grandes cidades. Parece que usar veículos elétricos / híbridos é uma solução apropriada, mas qual carro será mais compatível com a sociedade, o ambiente e as pessoas do Irã ainda é vago? Para responder a essa pergunta, projetamos nosso modelo no qual os quatro híbridos mais populares mundialmente / A eletricidade foi analisada com base nas idéias de especialistas. Em geral, é utilizado o método analítico-descritivo, a comunidade da pesquisa inclui todos os especialistas no campo da gestão ambiental e o tamanho da amostra é obtido usando o método objetivo não aleatório (10 especialistas foram questionados) para priorizar entre carros diferentes com base em um método processo analítico de hierarquia. Os resultados mostraram que, com base na perspectiva dos especialistas, veículos totalmente elétricos são preferencialmente mais compatíveis com a situação do Irã do que veículos híbridos. A característica mais significativa que é contribuída para os veículos elétricos é o alto nível de eficiência de combustível e a menor quantidade de poluição atribuída ao seu motor elétrico, o que significa que eles não liberarão nenhuma poluição no ar. Finalmente, com base nos resultados, sugerimos algumas estratégias, entre as quais a substituição de veículos a combustível antigos e de baixa eficiência, aplicando impostos excessivos regularmente.Palavras-chave: Veículos Elétricos / Híbridos, Poluição do Ar, Transporte Urbano.USING GREEN VEHICLES AS AN APPROACH TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY IN IRANIAN METROPOLISESNowadays due to the overwhelming levels of pollution, especially in large cities, going green, which means products have higher levels of energy consumption efficiency, is one of the crucial features of any product. In fact being green for vehicles which are responsible for majority of air pollution is significant, therefore companies are trying to product more environment-friendly cars and governments are more intended to place more environmental standards on this industry. Iran as a developing country is facing excessive amount of air pollution in its big cities and it is necessary for this country to invest on more environmental products, especially in transportation system which release a numerous level of air and noise pollution into the environment. It seems, it will be an appropriate approach for this country to produce or import Electric/Hybrid vehicles, but which car will be more compatible with Iran’s society, environment and people situation is still vague, in order of answering this question we designed our model in which 4 most globally popular Hybrid/Electric has been analyzed based on experts’ ideas. In general, descriptive-analytic method is used, the survey community is included all experts in the field of environmental management and sample size is obtained using non-random objective method (10 experts have been questioned) for prioritizing between different cars based on an analytic hierarchy process. The results showed that based on the experts’ perspective, fully electric vehicles are would rather be more compatible with Iran’s situation than Hybrid ones. The most significant feature that is contributed to Electric vehicles is about their high level of fuel efficiency and the least amount of pollution attributed to their Electric engine, which means they will release no pollution into the air. We finally based on the results, suggested some strategies, among which replacing old and low efficient fuel vehicles, placing excessive tax on regular cars and Tax exemption(for driving, importing and manufacturing electric cars) are the practical approaches for government in order to engage people buying-using more efficient cars. Keywords: Electric / Hybrid Vehicles, Air Pollution, Urban Transportation


Subject Indications that the global lithium market is adequately supplied. Significance Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which have a higher power density in a smaller package than other technologies, have become the default choice for most personal electronics and electric cars. Demand for them has taken on renewed fervour with Tesla founder Elon Musk's unveiling of Li-ion energy storage for rooftop solar energy and utility-scale electricity back-up. More recently, he announced plans to build an electric car that could break 1,000 kilometres on a single charge within one-to-two years. Impacts Despite delays in project execution and a tepid financing environment for junior producers, price volatility will be subdued. Falling oil prices may dent Li-ion batteries' price competitiveness in the transport sector. How technology advances will be decisive in determining future demand, making forecasting particularly difficult.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2301-2306
Author(s):  
Ji Chao Hong ◽  
Tie Zhu Zhang ◽  
Ji Zhang ◽  
Ying Jie Hao

Because of the defects in energy utilization and environment protection of the traditional fuel vehicle, the electric cars have increasing market advantage. This paper analyzed the main structural characteristics of the electric cars by comparing the traditional fuel vehicles from the vehicle structure principle, main components and so on. We known the electric car is different from traditional fuel vehicle in energy consumption economy from energy consumption analysis of the two aspects of efficiency and fuel consumption per hundred kilometers. It is concluded that electric vehicles are significantly higher than the traditional fuel efficiency cars and fuel consumption per hundred kilometers is lower than the traditional fuel cars by comparative analysis. To study the ways to improve the efficiency of energy of electric vehicles, we analyzed the key problems to further improve the development space of energy efficiency, pointed out the key problems which should be researched in the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (06) ◽  
pp. 805-815
Author(s):  
Ravi P Bhovi ◽  
◽  
Ranjith A C ◽  
Sachin K M ◽  
Kariyappa B S ◽  
...  

Electric cars have evolved into a game-changing technology in recent years. A Battery Management System (BMS) is the most significant aspect of an Electric Vehicle (EV) in the automotive sector since it is regarded as the brain of the battery pack. Lithium-ion batteries have a large capacity for energy storage. The BMS is in charge of controlling the battery packs in electric vehicles. The major role of the BMS is to accurately monitor the battery’s status, which assures dependable operation and prolongs battery performance. The BMS’s principal job is to keep track, estimate, and balance the battery pack’s cells. The major goals of this work are to keep track of battery characteristics, estimate SoC using three distinct approaches, and balance cells. Coulomb Counting, Extended Kalman Filter, and Unscented Kalman Filter are the three algorithms that will be implemented. Current is used as an input parameter to implement the coulomb counting method. In contrast to voltage and temperature, the current value is taken into account by the Extended and Unscented Kalman Filters. To calculate the state transition and measurement update matrix, these parameters are considered. This matrix will then be used to calculate SoC. Results of all the algorithms will be comparatively analyzed. MATLAB R2020a software is used for the simulation of different algorithms and SoC calculation. Three states of BMS are considered and they are Discharging phase, the Standby/resting phase, and the Charging phase. At the beginning of the Simulation, the SoC values of the cells were 80%. At the end of simulation maximum values of SoC of Coulomb counting, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), and Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) reached are 100%, 98.74%, and 98.46% respectively. After SoC Estimation, Cell balancing is also performed over 6 cells of the battery pack.


2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 499-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Bennett ◽  
Rohini Vijaygopal

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of gamification on connections between consumers’ self-image congruence in relation to the purchasers of an environmentally friendly product electric vehicles (EVs) and their possession of a stereotype of EV owners as being “unconventional”, and their attitudes towards EVs, having regard to their levels of environmental concern and prior knowledge of EVs. Additionally, the research explored the link between attitudes towards and willingness to purchase EVs. Design/methodology/approach Participants completed a questionnaire and an Implicit Association Test (IAT) both before and after playing a computer game wherein the player assumed the identity of an EV driver. A structural equation model was constructed to predict attitude to EVs. The relationship between attitude and willingness to purchase was examined via a conditional process analysis. Findings The experience of playing the game improved the favourability of the respondents’ stereotype of EV owners by an average of 19 per cent, and their attitude towards EVs by 17 per cent. Self-image congruence in relation to EV ownership increased on the average by 14 per cent and reported EV product knowledge by 8 per cent. However, willingness to purchase an EV was not substantially affected. The link between attitude and willingness to purchase was weak, but was significantly moderated by stereotype favourability and self-image congruence with EV owners. Research limitations/implications As with any IAT study, it was necessary to pre-specify a particular form of stereotype. Future research could employ alternative stereotypes. The investigation took place in a single country and involved a single environmentally friendly product. Practical implications Gamification has much potential for helping manufacturers and government agencies to stimulate the mass market for EVs. To negate unfavourable images of EV owners, marketing communications promoting EVs might usefully employ celebrities, sports personalities and/or leading political figures as exemplars of the types of people who drive electric cars. Originality/value The research is the first to explore the effects of gamification on product user self-image congruence and stereotype formation. It is novel both in its employment of an IAT to measure the consumer stereotype of an environmentally friendly product and in its examination of the moderating influences of stereotype and product user self-image congruence on the attitude-willingness to purchase link.


Subject Outlook for the lithium market. Significance Moves by the lithium 'majors' to consolidate control over the supply chain by taking positions in start-up projects have boosted the share prices of major lithium producers this year. The market for lithium is expected to rise from just under 200,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2015 to 310,000-320,000 in 2020 and 400,000 by 2025. Electric cars are expected to be the strongest source of new lithium demand and lithium-ion batteries are also crucial to consumer electronics, particularly smartphones and tablets. Impacts Hard rock mining has a shorter lead time than brine evaporation output, so hard rock output is likely to dominate in the short term. Brine evaporation output is cheaper to produce and is likely to undercut hard rock projects in the longer term. The share performance of lithium producers is likely to stabilise as projects get development sanction and supply keeps pace with demand. Lithium demand is certain to grow, but the rate of electric car adoption is a critical factor in fulfilling bullish demand forecasts. Plug-in hybrid electric cars are forecast to enjoy higher sales than battery electric cars but they need less lithium.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 28-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Giannetti ◽  
Laura Risso ◽  
Lino Cinquini

Purpose The aim of this paper is to explore the managing of cost drivers using a business model (BM) design. Particularly, the paper explores the link between a BM and cost driver analysis adopting a service-dominant logic (SDL) perspective. The empirical domain addresses the dynamic and complex scenarios of electric cars, where many actors are involved, several marketing and technological aspects are still unclear and where the high cost of batteries delays the wide diffusion of electric vehicles. The paper explores how SDL could support the BM design and how the cost driver analysis and BM design are linked when the SDL perspective is adopted. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses secondary data and findings collected by interviews performed with managers belonging to the automotive sector. Findings The results show that the BM design could be a solution to address cost problems and the cost driver analysis may play a role in formulating an economically sustainable BM. Splitting a product into a “package of services” can provide direction for research of an alternative BM design in an attempt to manage the impact of cost drivers and pursue economic sustainability. Originality/value This paper explores a topic that has not yet focused on cost management research, i.e. the link between BM and cost driver analysis adopting an SDL perspective.


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