Progress in merging India’s oil companies may be slow

Subject India's efforts to make state-run oil companies more competitive at home and abroad. Significance India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), which specialises in exploration, is set to acquire a majority stake in refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2018. The planned consolidation of these two state-owned enterprises (SOEs) reflects the Indian government’s aim of making public sector oil companies more competitive at home and abroad, improving long-term energy security. Impacts India’s oil ministry will become increasingly involved in scrutinising oil companies’ competitiveness domestically and overseas. Any perceived privatisation of the ONGC’s assets could be met with protests by many of its 33,000 employees. The ONGC will in the long term need to diversify into a broader energy company rather than focusing only on oil and gas.

Subject Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations. Significance Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier. Impacts Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions. A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership. The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms. This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.


Subject Energy politics in Algeria. Significance The CEO of state-owned energy company Sonatrach, Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour on October 17 said during an oil and gas conference in London that Algeria would move away from from oil-indexed, long-term contracts and towards more flexible terms. Since he took the helm in March, the head of Sonatrach has called for radical changes in the way the national oil and gas corporation operates, in the face of the fall in global energy prices. Ould Kaddour has made it clear he thinks the corporation is weighed down by bureaucracy and lacks strategic vision. Impacts Foreign companies are likely to welcome Ould Kaddour’s initiative, but will be wary of the political ramifications. Sonatrach’s priority will be to maintain or increase market share against more competition from Russia, Australia and the United States. Ould Kaddour may not have enough time to deliver results; turnover of senior personnel in Sonatrach over the past few years has been rapid.


Subject Long-term energy markets outlook. Significance The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its forecast for total primary energy demand (TPED) to 2040 for the first time since it began projecting this far out in 2014. Impacts The IEA’s belief that the world is on an environmentally unsustainable path will bolster decarbonisation efforts nationally and globally. The IEA does not see oil demand peaking by 2040; this and gas’s growing share of global demand will help sustain oil and gas investment. China and India switching from coal to gas will reduce coal’s share of energy demand even though India’s official targets are optimistic.


Significance However, years of delays, regulatory uncertainty and a lack of political will -- compounded more recently by depressed global oil prices and the global slowdown caused by COVID-19 -- have seen many projects stall. Impacts Marginal projects may suffer as oil companies assess their investment strategies amid depressed oil prices and a global economic slowdown. The complexity of doing business may prove a serious impediment to finalising long-term investments, especially under Magufuli. Sustained delays in developing extractives projects are likely to feature heavily in opposition election campaign talking points.


2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Frondel ◽  
Christoph M. Schmidt

AbstractAlong with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This article conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the long-term energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply, thereby providing us with a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany (1980-2004), we find that the energy supply risk has increased substantially since the 1970s. This outcome is mainly due to the drastic raise of oil and gas imports from Russia.


Author(s):  
Dulal Halder ◽  
Anshuman Gupta

<p>In a span of about two decades, India has become the second fastest growing economy in the world after China. India has surpassed other Asian developing countries not only because of increases in inflows of foreign direct investment but also because of its potential to be a significant outward investor, including in the energy sector. With less than one percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves, more than 80% of its oil requirement is imported. Overseas equity oil investment gradually emerged as a policy instrument of augmenting energy security. In the early 2000s, Indian national oil companies (NOCs) were encouraged by the Government to seek sourcing fossil fuels from abroad. While equity ownership ensures long-term supply security, they are complex and bring in strategic and geo-political considerations. Within India, there are demands for stronger diplomatic support. In this paper, the factors governing outward investment for equity oil are analysed in the context of an energy security framework with four vectors of Accessibility, diversity, reliability, and affordability.</p>


Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7843
Author(s):  
Przemysław Kaszyński ◽  
Aleksandra Komorowska ◽  
Krzysztof Zamasz ◽  
Grzegorz Kinelski ◽  
Jacek Kamiński

Capacity remuneration mechanisms operate in many European countries. In 2018, Poland implemented a centralized capacity market to ensure appropriate funding for the existing and new power generation units to improve long-term energy security. One of the declarations made while the mechanism was deployed was its beneficial influence on incentives for investments in new units. In this context, this paper aims to analyze the effects of the capacity mechanism adopted for investments in new power generation units that may be financed under the capacity market mechanism in Poland. The analysis is conducted for four types of capacity market units, the existing, refurbishing, planned, and demand-side response types, and includes the final results of capacity auctions. The results prove that the primary beneficiaries of the capacity market in Poland have been the existing units (including the refurbishing ones) responsible for more than 80% of capacity obligation volumes contracted for 2021–2025. Moreover, during the implementation of the capacity market in Poland, the planned units that signed long-term capacity contracts with a total share of 12% of the whole market were already at the advanced phases of construction, and the investment decisions were made long before the implementation of the capacity market mechanism. Therefore, they were not associated with the financial support from the capacity market. The study indicates that the capacity market did not bring incentives for investments in new power generation units in the investigated period.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 975-1000
Author(s):  
Mukhtar A. Kassem ◽  
Muhamad Azry Khoiry ◽  
Noraini Hamzah

Purpose Project failure is the result of one or a combination of several causes of risk factors that are very important to identify for effective performance. This study aims to focus on studying the fundamental relationship between internal risk factors and the negative effect on oil and gas project success in Yemen using the partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) method. Design/methodology/approach Data collection was carried out using a formal questionnaire survey of the oil field sector in Yemen by companies involved in mega-oil and gas construction projects. A hierarchical model for determining causative internal risk factors and their effects was developed and evaluated using SEM method by SmartPLS3 software technology. Findings The findings of analyzing model indicate that all categories have a significant effect on project success, while the most significant affected categories in the internal risk factors are project management factors, feasibility study-design and resources-material supply with a path coefficient value of 0.213, 0.197 and 0.186, respectively. Moreover, for the hypotheses test, the positive relationship means that all experimental hypotheses are accepted according to path coefficient value analysis. In addition, the internal risk factors research model shows the ranking of effects on project success starting with project stoppage (loading factor 0.841), cost overruns (loading factor 0.818), time overruns (loading factor 0.726) and project target failure with loading factor 0.539. Research limitations/implications The research was limited to the oil and gas construction projects in Yemen. Practical implications Interpreting the relationship between internal risk factors and their impact on the success of construction projects in the oil and gas sector will assist project team and oil companies in developing risk response strategies and developing appropriate plans to mitigate the effects of risks, which is presented in this paper. Originality/value The paper explains the relationship between cause and effect of internal risk factors in oil and gas projects in Yemen, and is expected to be a guideline for the oil companies and future academic research in the risk management area.


Subject Prospects for regulatory change in the oil and gas sector. Significance Following stiff political opposition in February from the Democrat Party (including party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva) and individuals associated with the People's Democratic Reform Committee, interim Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's administration cancelled a planned exploration licensing round this year. Now Prayuth faces pressure from the same group to amend the 1971 Petroleum Act itself to switch the oil and gas upstream regime from revenue-sharing contracts (RSCs) to production sharing contracts (PSCs). Impacts Popular resistance to dams on the Mekong risks Thailand's longer-term energy strategy. The next government is likely to be better equipped in countering resistance to new exploration. Low gas prices across Asia and the decline in oil prices promise fiscal relief as Thai imports rise.


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