Submarine highlights Argentine defence deficiencies

Subject Shortcomings of Argentina's defence policy. Significance On November 15, the submarine ARA San Juan suffered an internal explosion, presumably caused by water leaking into its battery propulsion system. There were 44 naval personnel on board the vessel, which has yet to be found. ‘Accidents’ in Argentina often involve corruption, political clientelism and incompetence. Although it is early to rush to judgement in this case, blame is likely to be shared among politicians managing the defence sector, the military hierarchy and defence sector factories. A political earthquake may follow. Impacts Absent a merit-based civil service, weakened state bureaucracies will be incapable of resolving multiple demands for public goods. The accident will prompt a shake-up of the armed forces high command but no real defence reform. The annual defence budget of some 5 billion dollars could prove sufficient, if spent effectively.

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.


Subject Taiwan's defence policy. Significance Taiwan's new president, Tsai Ing-wen, has signalled a major shift in national defence policy. She aims to boost the overall defence budget to 3% of GDP (from 2% currently) and strengthen the domestic arms industry. Tsai hails from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally favours permanent de jure independence from mainland China. Impacts Tsai will tread carefully on sensitive sovereignty issues, trying to avoid provoking China even while raising defence spending. Chinese pressure will constrain Taiwan's ability to secure investment and cooperation on defence projects (except from the United States). Washington will press Taiwan for higher defence budgets and offer access to advanced technologies and weapons. The military balance in the Taiwan Strait will shift further in China's favour. Taiwan will find more support in Washington and Tokyo for inclusion in regional defence architecture.


2021 ◽  
pp. 446-462
Author(s):  
Mika Kerttunen

Essential to states organizing and regulating civil-military relations, the author analyses the actual and potential role and tasks that the defence sector and armed forces can take up in national cybersecurity policy and strategy. After identifying competences and capabilities that the defence sector could employ for national cybersecurity, the chapter identifies generic roles, from being an independent actor to being another integrated stakeholder, for the defence sector and the armed forces. The author notices how inclusion of the defence sector into national cybersecurity updates the concerns of the ‘military-industrial complex’ influencing not only cybersecurity policy but also how information and communication technologies are to be used in a society. Therefore, the chapter ultimately encourages states to implement strong political control in order to avoid unnecessary securitization and militarization of information technology and cyber development policies, misuse of public mandate and funds, and, ultimately, abuses of power by any elite.


Subject The police, military and government in the Philippines. Significance Social Weather Stations polling released on October 6 gave President Rodrigo Duterte 64% net approval, implying that, for all his drugs and crime crackdown's international controversy, most voters support him. However, Duterte's approach to the crackdown risks undoing post-Marcos efforts to separate the functions of the police and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and to remove the army from involvement in law and order issues. Impacts Duterte's pledges of further funding for the military and police will be popular with these organisations. This should mitigate the risk of any police and military plots against Duterte, rumours of which occasionally surface. The army's role in the practical delivery of government policy is likely to grow. Turf wars between the military and police are still a risk, and could undermine security efforts. Further extensions to the crime crackdown are likely.


Subject The impact of the failed July coup on civilian-military relations. Significance The psychological impacts of the attempted coup across political life cannot be understated; it has far-reaching implications for the political, bureaucratic and even ideological structures of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). In the aftermath of the attempted putsch, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more determined than ever to alter the civilian-military machinery of government in Turkey radically. Impacts The purge and radical reforms will bring into question the TSK's operational and strategic reliability for Western partners. A permanently weakened TSK would ease the way for constitutional reforms strengthening Erdogan's grip on the state. It will take years to rebuild the confidence and prestige the military has lost among broad swathes of Turkish society. Any criticism of the TSK reforms, domestically or from abroad, will meet the authorities' fierce condemnation.


Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.


Subject The political role of the armed forces. Significance The armed forces have recently assumed an unusually high political profile. The current government has appointed generals to high-level positions and ordered a large-scale intervention led by the army in Rio de Janeiro state security institutions. These measures, many of them unprecedented, are an attempt by President Michel Temer to boost his popularity as a ‘tough-on-crime’ leader. The armed forces are one of the few public institutions enjoying high levels of trust among Brazilians. Impacts Despite recent protest calls for a military coup, support for such a move is restricted to a radical minority. Resistance against further reliance on the military for domestic law enforcement will rise, including among senior officers. Bolsonaro will focus his message on crime, promising to bring more military members into his cabinet, including the Education Ministry.


Author(s):  
LILIANA BROŽIČ

In 2018, the publication Modern Military Challenges celebrates the 20th anniversary of its publication. The 20th anniversary of the publication of military professional and scientific texts is an excellent achievement for the Slovenian Armed Forces, which has been off age for quite some time now. Initially, the goals of the Editorial Board were more modest. With the Bulletin of the Slovenian Armed Forces, as it was called at the time, they wanted mainly to distribute the knowledge of all those who had returned from various education programmes and trainings abroad. With the efforts of all those who took part in creating it, the publication has grown to gain a scientific and professional character and, as such, it has been indexed in the PAIS International database since 2010. The Slovenian Armed Forces publishes specialised military literature on the basis of Article 42 of the Defence Act, which within the control of armed forces also includes a regulation that the minister, in addition to other areas, also decides on specialised military literature. This allows for the care for specialised military literature to be constantly present in the defence sector; however, outside the defence sector, it is unfortunately missing. Military specialised and scientific topics can rarely be found in printed form. As a rule, they are prepared as a result of personal motivation and not so much of the systemic development of the subject matter. For this very reason, specialised military literature needs to be developed all the more carefully, and the development of military scientific topics promoted in cooperation with Slovenian and other foreign institutions, where the critical mass of intelligentsia and funding is significantly higher than in Slovenia. On this important anniversary, the Contemporary Military Challenges are in good shape. The statistics show that, in the two decades, 438 articles have been written by 594 authors. 51 percent of them were members of the Slovenian Armed Forces, 29 percent were from other Slovenian institutions and 12 percent of them were foreign authors. Only eight percent of authors come from the administrative part of the Ministry of Defence. The largest number of external authors participated in 2008, i.e. 50 percent, and most foreign authors in 2010 and 2016. In the former case, the share was 42 percent, and in the latter case, 50 percent of all authors. The share of contributions from the administrative part of the Ministry of Defence, which includes the Defence Policy Directorate in charge of monitoring the defence future and drafting important documents in the field of defence policy has, however, been the smallest in the history of the publication. Indeed, this is a smaller organizational unit, but in terms of substance, a very important one for the defence sector. Nevertheless, or perhaps, for this very reason, the Directorate did not contribute any professional or scientific article in 2013, 2015, and 2017. We expect and wish that this year this would change.


Author(s):  
Katarzyna Zysk

The Russian armed forces and military thought have been undergoing a historic transition. Following several failed attempts at military reforms since the 1990s, it became increasingly clear that the organizational structure, operational doctrines, and weaponry of Soviet provenience were poorly adapted to the radically changed security environment, as well as to Russia’s economic, material, and human capabilities. Since Vladimir Putin’s second presidential term, the political will to prioritize the defence sector has systematically increased and eventually led to a comprehensive military transformation. A new command and force structure, massive introduction of new materiel, and sharply increased quality and quantity of training have been accompanied by doctrinal revisions to accommodate changing forms of warfare. Nevertheless, the modernization efforts have been unevenly distributed and in some cases incoherent, undermined by inadequate industrial, technological, socio-economic, and demographic resources. The end objective of the military transformation remains a subject of an ongoing discussion.


Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.


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