Kuczynski ouster would rock Peru political stability

Significance Kuczynski’s future as president hangs in the balance. His refusal to heed opposition demands for his resignation may harden the resolve of a congressional majority to vote for his ouster on grounds of ‘moral incapacity’. Kuczynski, who will face his parliamentary accusers on December 21, is embroiled in controversy as to whether he received funds from Brazilian construction company Odebrecht when a minister. Impacts Kuczynski’s removal would probably lead to a downgrade in Peru’s credit rating. It would delay decision-making, but not necessarily herald a shift in economic policy. The hiatus would have a further negative impact on institutional stability. The main beneficiary, at least in the short term, would be Keiko Fujimori.

Significance Instead he aims to create a new party. The FPI has since denied reports of mass defections by the party grassroots to Gbagbo. This comes in the context of broader public reconciliation efforts by President Alassane Ouattara, who seeks political stability in the aftermath of a highly controversial October 2020 third-term election victory. Impacts Ouattara is unlikely to grant general amnesty to all political actors in order to keep some of them outside the country. Gbagbo will likely win over most, though not all, of his former supporters within the FPI. Struggles within Gbagbo’s former party and other opposition formations will weaken the opposition in the short term. Gbagbo will consolidate his position as the main opposition leader, threatening the country’s stability in the lead-up to the 2025 election.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Song ◽  
Aiqi Wu ◽  
Xiaotong Zhong ◽  
Shufan Yu

Purpose This study aims to introduce an important temporal dimension to the research on institution and entrepreneurship in the transition period. This study develops the concept of pre-reform institutional embeddedness, and explores its impact on entrepreneurial reinvestment of private firms in China’s transition economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors used secondary data of a nationally representative sample of China’s private firms collected in the early days of the institutional transition period and applied ordinary least squares regressions and the Baron and Kenny approach to test the theoretical model. Findings Pre-reform institutional embeddedness has a negative impact on entrepreneurial reinvestment of private firms in the transition period. This relationship is mediated by guanxi-induced employment, such that pre-reform institutional embeddedness promotes guanxi-induced employment, which in turn discourages a private firm to reinvest. Additionally, the negative impact of guanxi-induced employment on entrepreneurial reinvestment is reduced when decentralization of decision-making is used. Practical implications First, entrepreneurs should be aware of pre-reform institutional embeddedness’ negative influence on firms’ risk-taking abilities and incentives. Private firms already constrained by this connection could alleviate the negative impacts through a widespread delegation of decision-making authority. Second, policymakers should be cautious about improper government-business relationships, which may discourage private firms from fully pursuing entrepreneurial growth opportunities. Originality/value This paper makes theoretical contributions to the literature on entrepreneurial reinvestment, embeddedness perspective of entrepreneurship and imprinting theory.


Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1229-1252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Yazdani ◽  
Prasenjit Chatterjee ◽  
Dragan Pamucar ◽  
Manuel Doval Abad

Purpose Supply chain (SC) environment is surrounded by risk variables. This issue is regarded as an emerging and strategic problem which must be resolved by SC executives. The ability to measuring green supplier’s performance and affecting risk variables to demonstrating effective suppliers list has a potential contribution to be investigated. This paper aims to develop a decision-making model to assess green suppliers under legislation and risk factors. This leads to fewer disruptions in managing the SC and its impact to further improvement. It also presents research concepts forming a new approach for identification, prediction and understating relationship of supply risk. Design/methodology/approach At primal stage, different risk factors that influence green suppliers’ performance are indicated and their relationship is analyzed using decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. At the same time, failure mode and effect analysis is used to determine risk rating of each supplier. Finally, the evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) method ranks suppliers and several comparisons and analysis are performed to test the stability of the results. The approaches include comparison to technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution, multi-attributive border approximation area comparison, Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje and complex proportional assessment methods, followed by analysis of rank reversal, weight sensitivity analysis and effect of dynamic metrics. Findings A real-time case study on green supplier selection (GSS) problem of a reputed construction company of Spain has been presented to demonstrate the practical aspects of the proposed method. In practice, though organizations are aware of various risks from local and global suppliers, it is difficult to incorporate these risk factors for ranking the suppliers. This real-case application shows the evaluation and incorporation of risk factors into the supplier selection model. Practical implications The proposed multi-criteria decision model quantitatively aids managers in selecting green suppliers considering risk factors. Originality/value A new model has been developed to present a sound mathematical model for solving GSS problems which considers the interaction between the supplier selection risk factors by proposing an integrated analytical approach for selecting green suppliers strategically consisting of DEMATEL, FMEA and EDAS methods.


2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (11) ◽  
pp. 2455-2471
Author(s):  
Teresa León ◽  
Vicente Liern ◽  
Blanca Pérez-Gladish

Purpose In recent years there has been a significant acceleration in the market growth of social impact investing. Policy makers, regulatory bodies and national decision-makers should base their decision-making processes on multiple criteria. These criteria are, by nature, imprecise, ambiguous and uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to provide decision-makers with a mathematical tool which aids them in their decision-making processes identifying the degree of appropriateness of less developed countries in terms of potential success of investment in vaccination campaigns. Design/methodology/approach In this work, the authors have developed a decision-making tool within the framework of multiple criteria decision making and Fuzzy Logic, which aims to aid decision-makers for vaccinations campaigns in less developed countries. In particular, the authors have proposed a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution-based method which is able to work in fuzzy environment in order to assess and rank countries based on their fuzzy degree of appropriateness for impact investing in vaccines. Findings The impact investing market provides capital from private sources to address many pressing global challenges such as access to basic services as health. Governments have, therefore, an essential role in supporting the development of this market by improving the risk/return profile of investments through access to credit facilities, tax credits or subsidies or defining the regulation of the supply of investments, provision of technical assistance to investing private companies and co-financing. The proposed framework permits funding decision making taking into account the degree of preparedness and adequacy for impact investing in vaccines of the selected countries. Research limitations/implications Impact investing can play a key role in the reduction of immunization gap offering suitable strategies for both, governments and private investors for the achievement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, in order to make good financial decisions managers should take into account not only health, income, education and other social criteria but also the degree of basic preparedness of the countries in order to ensure the success of the immunization campaigns which means taking into account availability of basic infrastructures, access to electricity, political stability among other criteria. Practical implications However, in order to make good financial decisions managers should take into account not only health, income, education and other social criteria but also the degree of basic preparedness of the countries in order to ensure the success of the immunization campaigns which means taking into account availability of basic infrastructures, access to electricity, political stability among other criteria. Originality/value The proposed model will allow public and private decision makers to make better investment decisions in terms of effectiveness as the provided ranking of countries candidates for the investments is more realistic and takes into account more decision dimensions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-535
Author(s):  
Zhenjie Wang ◽  
Zhuquan Wang ◽  
Xinhui Su

Purpose The authors point out that the existing research confuses the operational liabilities formed based on the “transaction” relationship with the financial liabilities formed based on the “investment” relationship, which not only exaggerates the value of leverage but also underestimates the level of protection that companies provide for creditors alone. That is, the confusion of concepts not only triggers the problem of leverage misestimate but also triggers the short-term financial risk misestimate. The performance of “nominal leverage” and “nominal short-term solvency” based on total assets calculation cannot reflect the real leverage level and the real short-term financial risk of enterprises. Design/methodology/approach To distinguish the concepts of “assets” and “capital” and rationalize the relationship between “transactions” and “investments”, authors systematically design the “real leverage” indicators and “real short-term solvency” indicators, and measure the degree of misestimate of leverage and short-term financial risk indicators by traditional research. On this basis, this paper describes and analyses the trends of leveraged misestimate and short-term financial risk misestimate of listed companies in China and analyses which companies have more serious leverage misestimate. And it helps readers to form an objective understanding of the leveraged misestimate and short-term financial risk misestimate of listed companies in China. Findings Firstly, the overall high level of leverage of listed companies in China in the traditional sense is largely because of the misestimate of indicators. And this kind of misestimate is more serious among firms that have advantages in trading, such as state-owned enterprises and firms with higher market shares. Secondly, for most firms with normal solvency, traditional research systematically overestimated the negative impact of “nominal leverage” on financial risk indicators (represented by short-term solvency). The overestimation is significant in firms with serious leverage misestimate. Thirdly, indicators’ misestimate of the traditional research makes the banks cannot make effective credit decisions according to the firm's “real leverage” and “real short-term solvency”. Originality/value Firstly, clarify the differences between the concepts of “assets” and “capital”, and clarify the level of “real leverage” of listed companies in China, which is conducive to the process of “de-leveraging”. Secondly, revise the problem of misestimate of related indicators, so that financial institutions can clearly identify the true profitability and real risk level of the entity domain, and thus improve the effectiveness of credit decisions.


Subject Outlook for Nigeria's 2016 state budget. Significance The Senate this week will forward President Muhammadu Buhari the revised 2016 state budget, which it passed on March 23. Buhari says that he will assess it "ministry by ministry" before signing it into law to ensure that there are no irregularities in the final text. The 6.06-trillion-naira (30.6-billion-dollar) spending plan is 17 billion naira lower than the initial budget proposed by the government in December 2015. Impacts Buhari is unlikely to consider raising the value added tax given its effect on living costs, which would hurt the APC electorally. The central bank will likely keep currency restrictions in place, at least in the short term, despite their negative impact on firms. The tax compliance drive will be most effective in Lagos, due to heavy investment in collection capacity by the state government.


Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.


Kybernetes ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 536-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Hossein Razavi Hajiagha ◽  
Shide Sadat Hashemi ◽  
Hannan Amoozad Mahdiraji

Purpose – Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric model that is developed for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision-making units that each unit transforms multiple inputs into multiple outputs. However, usually the decision-making units are not completely similar. The purpose of this paper is to propose an algorithm for DEA applications when considered DMUs are non-homogeneous. Design/methodology/approach – To reach this aim, an algorithm is designed to mitigate the impact of heterogeneity on efficiency evaluation. Using fuzzy C-means algorithm, a fuzzy clustering is obtained for DMUs based on their inputs and outputs. Then, the fuzzy C-means based DEA approach is used for finding the efficiency of DMUs in different clusters. Finally, the different efficiencies of each DMU are aggregated based on the membership values of DMUs in clusters. Findings – Heterogeneity causes some positive impact on some DMUs while it has negative impact on other ones. The proposed method mitigates this undesirable impact and a different distribution of efficiency score is obtained that neglects this unintended impacts. Research limitations/implications – The proposed method can be applied in DEA applications with a large number of DMUs in different situations, where some of them enjoyed the good environmental conditions, while others suffered from bad conditions. Therefore, a better assessment of real performance can be obtained. Originality/value – The paper proposed a hybrid algorithm combination of fuzzy C-means clustering method with classic DEA models for the first time.


Significance The currency, which has fallen 14% against the dollar so far this year, fell another 3% in morning European trade, sinking below 70 to the dollar. The rate cut comes after the January 26 downgrade by international ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) of Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status (from BBB- to BB+) and the January 28 announcement of an economic plan that will see the government spend 2.34 trillion rubles (35 billion dollars) to bolster key industries, including banks, and to boost its troubled economy particularly in the regions. As part of the measures, Moscow plans a 10% cut in the budgets of all but a handful of ministries. Defence, agriculture and social spending are spared. Impacts Discussions between liberals are not as important to economic policy as they were. Further measures to boost the economy are likely in order to forestall more rating agencies downgrading Russia to junk status. The Security Council will exert greater influence over economic policy, further marginalising economic liberals.


Significance UAE forces were vital to the coalition's taking of Aden and southern Yemen from Huthi control in July. The UAE's strong military commitment to the Saudi-led drive to roll back the Huthis is part of the Gulf state's more assertive and interventionist policy as it seeks to contain Iranian and Islamist influence in the post-2011 Middle East. However, greater interventionism brings with it significant risks for the UAE, particularly for its military capabilities, international standing and political stability. Impacts The UAE's strong record on external humanitarian intervention will facilitate international reconstruction efforts in Yemen. In the longer term, Abu Dhabi will seek a greater decision-making role in internal Yemeni affairs. Relations with Saudi Arabia may face strain if UAE fighting capabilities continues to outshine those of Saudi troops and Yemeni militias. Gulf unity may begin to fray if the Yemen campaign returns to stalemate or coalition casualties mount.


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