Inequality is set to rise in coming years in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Structural Inequality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extreme Poverty ◽  
The World ◽  
High Crime

Subject Drivers of income inequality. Significance Brazil is one of the most unequal societies in the world, with the wealthiest 0.1% of the population holding a larger share of income than the poorest 50.0%, While extreme poverty was significantly reduced earlier this century, structural inequality has persisted -- and is once again on the rise. Impacts Worsening inequality may boost high crime rates, in turn increasing voter support for far-right candidates. The need to cut spending may increase unemployment and reverse successes in reducing poverty. Limits on public investment will militate against higher private investment and competitivity gains.

Does context matter? Examining robbery reporting in a high crime country

2021 ◽  
pp. 174889582110313
Author(s):  
Wilson Hernández ◽  
Katrina R Heimark
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Multilevel Modeling ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Violent Victimization ◽  
The World ◽  
Victimization Rate ◽  
Global North ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
High Crime

Most empirical studies that examine why individuals report property crimes to the police have focused on Global North countries where crime rates are low. This study is situated in the most violent area of the world, Latin America, and examines Peru, which has the highest robbery victimization rate in the Americas. This article examines the applicability of theories of crime reporting in this Global South context using a large sample and multilevel modeling. We find that trust in the police has no impact on the reporting of the robbery of one’s cellphone, purse or wallet. The theories of rational choice and Black’s stratification of law provide strong explanations for the reporting of robbery of these personal items. Individuals of higher social status and those who reside in districts with low levels of social disadvantage are more likely to report, as well as those who have experienced violent victimization.

Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

Infrastructure spending may pick up in Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscapes

Subject The expected rebound from declining infrastructure investment in Central Europe in 2016-17. Significance In its latest Economic Forecast, the European Commission expects a short-lived decline in public investment in three Central European (CE) countries. This is due to a 'one-off effect', as absorption rates for EU structural and cohesion funds dip across the region, with the closure of the 2007-13 programme period. This will weigh on headline GDP, with the Commission forecasting relatively low 2016 growth rates of 2.1% for Hungary, 2.3% for the Czech Republic and 3.5% for Poland. Impacts Solid growth rates in CE will attract private investment to infrastructure projects, particularly once GDP expands faster in 2017. Infrastructure investment will focus on such traditional sectors as transport and industry rather than financial services in 2016-17. Low borrowing costs and private companies' strong demand for short- and long-term loans will facilitate an upturn in projects in 2017. Given the diverse fiscal and political landscapes across CE, divergence in deals and mixed funding schemes are expected after 2016. CE governments may introduce lending schemes designed to shield new infrastructure projects from financial volatility.

Multilateral governance will advance despite obstacles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
System Reform ◽  
Government Ownership ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Government ◽  
Risk Insurance

Subject Reforming the multilateral development banks. Significance The multilateral development bank (MDB) system has resisted pressure on the international order from US nationalism, but the multiplication of MDBs has considerably reduced their collective effectiveness. This fragmentation is preventing them from adapting to global challenges and harnessing private capital for development. The World Bank spring meeting will consider the proposals that the G20 is exploring. Most do not entail institutional change, but others could pave the way for significant reforms. Impacts The ongoing debate about the World Bank’s need for a capital increase will be peripheral to the larger discussion on MDB system reform. If implemented, a cross-MDB risk insurance platform would create a one-stop shop for investors and opportunities for private reinsurers. System-wide securitisation would create new asset classes and expand opportunities for institutional investors. In-country MDB coordination platforms would boost host government ownership of projects in middle-income and stable low-income countries. Estimates suggest that one dollar of capital paid into MDBs can translate into 50 dollars of public investment if allocated effectively.

Long-term effects of population growth on aggregate investment dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simplice A. Asongu
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Dynamics

Purpose – The generation is witnessing the greatest demographic transition and Africa is at the heart of it. There is mounting concern over corresponding rising unemployment and depleting per capita income. The purpose of this paper is to examine the issues from a long-run perspective by assessing the relationships between population growth and a plethora of investment dynamics: public, private, foreign and domestic investments. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregressive models in the perspectives of vector error correction and short-run Granger causality are used. Findings – In the long-run population growth will: first, decrease foreign and public investments in Ivory Coast; second, increase public and private investments in Swaziland; three, deplete public investment but augment domestic investment in Zambia; fourth diminish private investment and improve domestic investment in the Congo Republic and Sudan, respectively. Practical implications – Mainstream positive linkage of population growth to investment growth in the long-term should be treated with extreme caution. Policy orientation should not be blanket, but contingent on country-specific trends and tailored differently across countries. The findings stress the need for the creation of a conducive investment climate (and ease of doing business) for private and foreign investments. Family planning and birth control policies could also be considered in countries with little future investment avenues. Originality/value – The objective of this study is to provide policy makers with some insights on how future investment opportunities could help manage rising population growth and corresponding unemployment.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

‘Trumpflation’ trading may run out of steam in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
President Elect ◽  
International Investors ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The Fed’s more hawkish stance underpins ‘Trumpflation’ trade. Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled a faster-than-anticipated pace of 2017 monetary tightening in its interest rate meeting earlier this month, driving the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. International investors are positioning themselves to take advantage of reflationary economic policies once President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month. The policy-sensitive yield on two-year US Treasury bonds has risen to the highest level since late 2009 while the dollar index has surged to a 14-year high. Impacts The euro is likely to remain weak, keeping it on course to reach parity with the dollar for the first time since 2002 next year. Having peaked at 13.4 trillion dollars in August, the stock of negative-yielding debt is likely to continue to fall. Relations between the Fed and the Trump administration could deteriorate if the two criticise each other’s policies. If public investment does rise sharply, encouraging faster tightening, this could discourage and crowd out private investment.

Low growth to dog Salvadoran economy in 2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Growth Performance ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
High Crime

Subject El Salvador's economy. Significance Over the last two decades El Salvador has lagged neighbouring countries in economic growth performance. This is not down to a single factor but rather the interaction of a range of political and economic problems that have resulted in insufficient levels of investment. Impacts Low growth will drive up El Salvador’s already high crime rates. Natural disasters are a real threat and could further cripple El Salvador’s prospects. March’s parliamentary elections are unlikely to relieve political paralysis, prolonging structural problems.

South Africa racial polarisation will worsen, for now

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Nation Building ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Racial Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nelson Mandela ◽  
High Crime ◽  
Persistent Inequality ◽  
Reconciliation Process

Subject Outlook for race and politics in South Africa Significance A rash of racially derogatory statements on social media, including by prominent government and business figures, and subsequent outrage is raising concerns that the careful reconciliation process led by former President Nelson Mandela is unwinding. The tensions are a symptom of economic malaise, persistent inequality and the current ANC leadership's disinterest in revising nation-building. Impacts Fears over being accused of racism will cause many business leaders to self-censor, undermining trust between them and government. Concerns over racial tensions coupled with high crime rates and the flagging economy could raise emigration rates. Anger over colonial symbols, eg statues, could lead to their removal, as was the case with the Cecil Rhodes statue in Cape Town. However, it is unlikely to drive inter-racial violence; poor, majority-black shantytowns will remain worst affected by crime and violence.

Mortgage access may limit Egypt’s real estate growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
Egyptian Government

Significance The Egyptian government has been seeking to attract foreign investment in the property market, which has seen strong growth over the past two years. In that time, the government has also invested around 43 billion Egyptian pounds (2.4 billion dollars) in the sector, compared with a total investment of 30 billion pounds over the preceding 20 years. Impacts Real estate growth will result in more private and public investment in water and infrastructure projects. New schools and hospitals in out-of-town developments will create jobs in the health and education sectors. Local investment in real estate may crowd out private investment in other sectors given the limited availability of bank loans.

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