Made In China 2025 will have narrow success

Subject China's Made In China 2025 industrial policy framework. Significance Made In China 2025 (MIC 2025) is a ten-year policy framework for comprehensively upgrading the technological base of China’s manufacturing sector. Its aims to make the country a world leader in high-tech production, and switch it to an innovation-driven and environmentally sustainable pattern of economic growth. Impacts Chinese policymakers will use market forces selectively, seeing them as just one tool among others. There is a risk that heavy state involvement will in some cases hold back competition and innovative private entrepreneurship. Penalties from Washington and other governments will raise the cost of technological espionage, but perhaps not prohibitively. Resistance to Chinese high-tech acquisitions will grow stronger in the West, not only in the United States.

Subject The impact of US tariffs on China's Made In China 2025 industrial policy framework. Significance 'Made in China 2025' has become a byword for US grievances against China's trade and investment policies. US tariffs against Chinese products are primarily aimed not at trimming the bilateral trade deficit, but at forcing China to abandon policies by which it hopes to challenge the US position as the global high-tech leader. As such, the tariffs target the high-tech sectors Beijing seeks to develop. Impacts China will step up efforts to reduce reliance on US suppliers. Washington may press other countries to block Chinese investment or supplies of key components. China will seek greater high-tech cooperation with Russia; Russia will oblige. China may make greater use of cyberattacks in order to obtain advanced US technology.


Subject China's global market presence in the sectors targeted for development by Made In China 2025. Significance Beijing's 'Made in China 2025' framework aims to make China a leading player in ten high-technology sectors. China’s current position in the global market varies greatly from one targeted industry to another. Comparison with the United States as the world's economic superpower and China’s main rival helps put the grievances Washington expresses towards China in context. Impacts China’s ability to compete on technology and quality will rise significantly, especially in advanced non-electrical and transport machinery. Domestic political pressure on the US government will rise as more US firms face Chinese competition. Trade tensions with the United States will spur indigenous development of technologies for which Chinese firms now depend on US suppliers. A cohort of globally competitive Chinese high-tech firms will develop first; upgrading the whole Chinese economy will take far longer. Even when the technological gap narrows, Chinese firms will continue seeking to acquire high-tech firms in developed countries.


Subject China's industrial policy. Significance At the heart of the current US-China confrontation over trade and investment is China's ambition to challenge US technological and industrial superiority. This ambition is now often treated as synonymous with its best-known element, the 'Made in China 2025' initiative (MIC 2025) -- a grand plan that sets ambitious targets for expanding high-end manufacturing. Impacts An uneasy relationship between China and the West regarding technology might delay release of technical standards for emerging technologies. China will invest heavily in its basic scientific research capabilities, but will not match the United States any time soon. It may become more difficult to obtain critical information on high-tech sectors and policies if government decides to downplay them.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Derek Adam Levine

This article addresses how China’s discriminatory trade practices and illicit means of foreign technology acquisition under its Made in China 2025 plan undermine current international trade orders and pose the greatest threat to its existence. Using both primary and secondary data, this article highlights major implications that Made in China 2025 has on free trade, the overall health of the U.S. economy, and U.S. national security. It proposes a multilateral strategy to preserve the current trade system to steer China on track toward honoring its commitment to free trade and identifies how the United States can maintain supremacy throughout the twenty-first century.


Subject Guizhou province's plans to establish a 'big data' hub. Significance Under the 'Made in China 2025' industrial policy framework, the provincial government of Guizhou, a Chinese province showing GDP growth twice as fast as that of the country, is betting on using big data to drive its economy, with extensive support from a central government that aims to make Guizhou the ‘Big Data Valley’ of China. Impacts Backed by a large amount of credit, Guizhou will continue to be among China's fastest growing provinces. State firms working in power, energy and infrastructure will get a boost from the construction of data centres. The provincial government will invest in building skills and could introduce new IT and engineering programmes.


Subject The impact of the Wuhan COVID-19 lockdown on China's high-tech development plans. Significance The city of Wuhan -- the origin and epicentre of the COVID-19 epidemic, and target of the country’s longest and most severe lockdown -- plays a significant role in the China’s Made In China 2025 plan to develop indigenous high-tech industries. Impacts Wuhan will suffer long-lasting stigma as the origin of COVID-19, which may affect its ability to compete with other tech hubs for talent. The city’s large fibre-optic sector may in the long run lose out from efforts by customers to diversify their suppliers. Tech firms are likely to be made a priority in government recovery spending. Key people in strategic sectors may have got priority medical treatment, but COVID-19 may still adversely affect the high-tech workforce.


Subject The impact of the China-US trade tariffs on Japan's economy. Significance As trade talks between the United States and China stumble toward a March 1 self-imposed US deadline, US tariffs and Chinese retaliations are influencing global trade patterns. Japan as a major trading nation has much at stake. Impacts Japanese producers are examining relocation options for products now made in China. South-east Asia, not Japan, is the top candidate for supply chain relocation. Mexico also is another candidate for substitute production because of its location and technology skills. If the United States follows up its threat to impose a 25% tariff on its imports of autos and parts this would hit Japan’s auto exports.


Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.


Significance The crown prince (colloquially known across Western news media as ‘MBS’), this month visited the United States, building relationships, announcing business deals and seeking to soften the image of Saudi Arabia. His seven-city tour included meetings with politicians from both parties, high-tech business leaders and Hollywood stars. Impacts The close association with Washington may play well to MBS’s youth base, but could further antagonise Saudi conservatives. Relationships built on the trip will likely boost US investment in Saudi Arabia, despite concerns about a fickle business environment. The Saudi charm offensive could provoke an adverse US domestic reaction if civilian casualties in Yemen spike and hit the news cycle.


Significance High on the agenda is the progress made in developing and deploying ‘5G’ networks and services and the challenges they both encounter and present. Impacts The initial 5G deployment may use existing networks, but its full potential will not be realised until dedicated infrastructure is in place. China will rely more on such dedicated (‘standalone’) infrastructure than the United States from the start of deployment. Despite negative US reactions to a government-built 5G network, closer government involvement is not off the table. 5G will be a massive cybersecurity challenge in terms of protecting individual privacy, logistics and security.


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