الموجهات الإرشادية لإعداد الدراسات التفصيلية وتحديد خطوات تنفيذ المشاريع من أجــــل قيام مشاريع ناجحة من الفكرة الى التشغييل

This paper was prepared to introduce the importance of knowledge and awareness by adhering to international standards when establishing large economic projects (> 1.0 m $) through preparing a detailed feasibility study. This includes all stages of the project (from idea to operation) and identifies project outputs and indicators of success, in order to establish best projects and for the optimal use of public money, based on a comparison and clarification with some successful projects to benefit from their experience. In fact, most projects in the Sudan are not studied and implemented according to a disciplined professional hierarchy and international standards, which often leads to their failure. Therefore, defining this problem and describing the solution should be a professional duty, the greater of which is located in the economic, engineering, the administrative, and the executive sectors, but the opinion of the civil engineer still remains as a key factor from the idea to the operational (Rule of Thumb). To solve this problem, we proposed simple guidelines for establishing projects from the idea to the operating, benefiting from our experience with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and the Islamic Development Bank, and guidelines from consultant homes and financing institutions in this regard. Finally, we think that our suggested guidelines can be used as basic platform for all those involved and those in charge of these projects, so that the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (the largest financier) can end up as binding directors (along the lines of purchase and contracting laws and regulations) to obtain the funding required to implement projects public financed with loans or grants by global or local funding agencies.

Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives

In this study, a model was created with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System and used to explore the benefits of altering the operations of Tarbela Dam in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) for the three objectives of irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Sensitivity analysis and logical reasoning with operators identified a feasible operational rule curve for testing using the integrated performance analysis. The reservoir performance for the altered operations was compared to the baseline performance following current operations for both historical and projected future climate and water demand conditions. Key simulation results show that the altered operations strategy tested under historical climate and water demand conditions would increase RRV by 17%, 67%, and 7%, respectively, for the water supply objective and 34%, 346%, and 22%, respectively, for hydropower generation. For projected future conditions, the proposed operations strategy would increase RRV by 7%, 219%, and 11%, respectively, for water supply and 19%, 136%, and 13% for hydropower generation. Synthesis of the results suggests significant benefits for reliability and resilience of water supply and hydropower are possible with slight operational adjustments. Overall, the integrated performance analysis supports the need to develop an optimized operations rule for Tarbela to adapt to projected climate and demand scenarios.

The Reduced Rules Rule Based Forecasting Decision Support System: Details and Functionalities: An Audit Context

In execution of PCAOB audits at the Planning and Substantive Phases, forecasts of various financial account balances are often used to collect information on the veracity of the client’s final reported balances. One of the forecast methods widely acclaimed in the academic context is the Rule Based Forecasting [RBF] model of Collopy and Armstrong [C&A]. However, for the most part, the RBF has not found its way into the panoply of the auditor. In our practice-oriented experiential context, the reason for this seems to be the lack of an enabling Decision Support System[DSS] usually needed to create reliable RBF-forecasts in a timely manner needed at the Substantive Phase of the audit. Focus In this report, we detail a GUI-friendly DSS, the VBA-programming of which is based upon a 2013 revision of an updated C&A model offered by Adya and Lusk. The DSS is called: The Reduced Rules: Rule Based Forecasting: Decision Support System [RR:RBF:DSS]. We provide a comprehensive example of the RR:RBF:DSS in a PCAOB-audit context for a Caterpillar™, Inc.Ò account Panel downloaded from Bloomberg™. This example, carefully details all of the numerous User Form-Launch platforms as well as discusses the statistical and operational Rule-scoring functionalities of the RR:RBF:DSS. The RR:RBF:DSS is available as a download without cost or restrictions on its use.

Impacts of Upstream Structures on Downstream Discharge in the Transboundary Imjin River Basin, Korean Peninsula

The transboundary river basin is a great challenge for water management and disaster reduction due to its specific characteristics. In this study, upstream impacts from natural and artificial sources on the downstream discharge on the Imjin river basin, the well-known transboundary region in the Korean peninsula, were evaluated using a hydrological model integrating a dam operation module at an hourly timescale. The module uses a concept of the AutoROM method as the operational rule to update the dam storage and decide water release. Dam storages were translated into water levels using a water level–storage curve. To quantify the impact of hydraulic structures on the Northern Imjin river basin, change in discharge was analyzed in four flood events (2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012). Dam failure scenarios were developed under conditions of the 2010 flood event, in which the releases of 100%, 80%, 50%, and 20% of water storage of Hwanggang dam were simulated. The results indicate that the amount of water released from upstream dams is the main cause of floods in the downstream region. To reduce the risk of floods in the downstream river basin, an optimal dam operation module and information on upstream dams play an important role and contribute to the effective use of water resources.

Kuwait

This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Kuwait highlights that non-oil growth strengthened to estimated 3 percent in 2019, propelled by government and consumer spending. The challenge to reduce dependence on oil and boost savings has become more urgent. The subdued forecast for oil revenues is weighing on near-term growth and fiscal and external balances. Embedding fiscal measures in a comprehensive reform package that promotes private sector growth, strengthens governance and accountability, and improves public services would help build broad support for reforms. A rules-based fiscal framework would improve management of oil revenues. A rule-based framework would help anchor fiscal policy on a long-term objective of intergenerational equity. It should include a well-calibrated operational rule that helps reconcile long-term savings and near-term economic stabilization objectives. Financial sector reforms should focus on bolstering resilience and deepening inclusion. Sustaining reforms to foster private sector-led and diversified growth will be critical. With limited scope for public employment going forward, a vibrant private sector must emerge to absorb the large number of Kuwaitis entering the labor market in coming years.

Linguistic Picture Fuzzy Dombi Aggregation Operators and Their Application in Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making Problem

The aims of this study are to propose the linguistic picture fuzzy Dombi (LPFD) aggregation operators and decision-making approach to deal with uncertainties in the form of linguistic picture fuzzy sets. LPFD operators have more flexibility due to the general fuzzy set. Utilizing the Dombi operational rule, the series of Dombi aggregation operators were proposed, namely linguistic picture fuzzy Dombi arithmetic/geometric, ordered arithmetic/ordered geometric and Hybrid arithmetic/Hybrid geometric aggregation operators. The distinguished feature of these proposed operators is studied. At that point, we have used these Dombi operators to design a model to deal with multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) issues under linguistic picture fuzzy information. Finally, an illustrative example to evaluate the emerging technology enterprises is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, together with a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis, proving that its results are feasible and credible.

Construction and Layout of Coordinated Multirobots System Based on Parallel Thought

Aiming at the problems that are the construction and the layout optimization of the coordinated multirobots system, the concept of an equivalent parallel robot (EPR) is proposed based on parallel thought in this paper. That is, each robot is regarded as a branched chain of the EPR in coordination. Thus, it can be converted into the problem for the type synthesis and the layout of the parallel robot. Firstly, the definition of robotic characteristic (C) set and the corresponding operational rule are given. Then, the minimum occupied area, cycle time, and condition number are used as the optimized objectives. The weight ratio is used to express the importance of the three objectives to meet the requirements of different scenes. Afterwards, based on the theory of C set, the three translational (3T) operational requirements that can be extended to other degree of freedom (DOF) are analyzed. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed methods is verified by the DOF analysis and simulation experiment. Moreover, the multiobjective layout problem is optimized based on the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. The results show that the constructed robot combinations and the layout optimization method are satisfactory.

Concrete production - an application of OC curves in conformity control

The decision on conformity or non-compliance of strength is made on the basis of a comparison of the results of testing of the mean value and minimum value of the compressive strength of concrete with the compliance criterion. This decision is made on the basis of the adopted statistical quality control plan. The quality monitoring of concrete has to be carried out throughout its production process. There are various techniques for the monitoring of quality concrete, namely Control charts: Cusum, Schewart and EWMA Control charts or operational-characteristic (OC) curve and average outgoing quality curve. In the case of concrete quality control, it may be an OC curve of a random sampling plan according to a numerical value or alternative evaluation, or an OC curve of the operational rule for testing concrete strength. The paper presents an analysis and assessment of the risk associated with making the second type of error related to compressive strength of concrete. For analysis, the OC curve of the operational rule for testing concrete strength, with OC curve of the second type of error was used as a function of the actual average compressive strength of the concrete.

Paris Agreement details complicate Bonn climate talks

Subject The May 16-26, 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference. Significance The 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference concluded on May 26, with a number of issues related to the implementation of the Paris Agreement left unresolved. These included key elements, such as how progress is to be monitored and reviewed, and the scale and speed of provision of financial and technological support for developing countries. Only one further session is scheduled for this year, at the November COP22 meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco. Current UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres concludes her six-year term in July, to be replaced by former Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa. Impacts The Paris Agreement is likely to enter into force by end-2017, perhaps earlier if diplomatic momentum is sustained. Concerns about delayed entry into force may speed the completion of the operational 'rule-book' by COP22. The Green Climate Fund's call for more proposals highlights the limited pipeline of application-ready projects in developing countries.