Paris Agreement details complicate Bonn climate talks

Subject The May 16-26, 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference. Significance The 2016 Bonn Climate Change Conference concluded on May 26, with a number of issues related to the implementation of the Paris Agreement left unresolved. These included key elements, such as how progress is to be monitored and reviewed, and the scale and speed of provision of financial and technological support for developing countries. Only one further session is scheduled for this year, at the November COP22 meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco. Current UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres concludes her six-year term in July, to be replaced by former Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa. Impacts The Paris Agreement is likely to enter into force by end-2017, perhaps earlier if diplomatic momentum is sustained. Concerns about delayed entry into force may speed the completion of the operational 'rule-book' by COP22. The Green Climate Fund's call for more proposals highlights the limited pipeline of application-ready projects in developing countries.

Author(s):  
Daniel Krahl

The Paris Agreement has turned traditional approaches to global governance upside down, using a bottom-up approach that made it possible for emerging powers like China to agree to binding emissions targets to contain climate change. It thus marks a further step away from the old order centered on Western power, and at the same time it fits well into Chinese attempts to create a post-American order that rests on great power diplomacy within a multilateral framework of cooperation that privileges developing countries. The Paris Agreement allows China to leverage the internal fight against pollution and the restructuring and upgrading of its economy for international status. That the agreement has so far survived President Trump’s announcement of America’s departure suggests that it could yet serve as a blueprint for other, future arrangements for world order that would be able to integrate a risen China.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-160
Author(s):  
Charlotte Streck ◽  
Moritz von Unger ◽  
Sandra Greiner

The 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (cop-25) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfccc) became the longest cop on record – but yielded few results. It appears that four years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, enthusiasm has waned and political bargaining and bean-counting have taken over. Countries, for even the slightest chance to keep temperatures ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius, must do much more than they have previously committed to and accelerate the shift towards a zero-carbon economy. However, the conference largely failed to heed the rallying cry of the Chilean presidency. The flagship decisions (grouped under the banner “Chile-Madrid Time for Action”) neither produced new commitments – enhancing ambition or finance for developing countries – nor new rules that would nudge countries closer to the climate action targets needed. The leftover pieces from last year’s negotiations of the “Paris Rulebook” were also not resolved, in particular the unfinished decisions on Article 6 on market- and non-market mechanisms. The procrastination shows that the new architecture of the Paris Agreement, while addressing several of the shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol, suffers from its own weaknesses. The meager results of Madrid give reason to pause and reflect on the conditions that may hold countries back from fully embracing the Paris Agreement, but also to consider the future and nature of carbon markets and what is making the issue so difficult to resolve.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Huggins ◽  
Md Saiful Karim

AbstractThe Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signifies a shift in how the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) manifests in the international climate change regime. Unlike the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement does not enshrine differentiated substantive mitigation obligations for developed and developing countries. However, an increasingly proceduralized variant of the CBDR principle, which facilitates regard for the interests of developing countries with respect to treaty implementation yet does not guarantee favourable substantive outcomes for these states, is evident in the emerging regime. The experience of the International Maritime Organization’s climate change regime provides a cautionary tale with respect to procedurally oriented differentiation that is not reinforced by effective processes to ensure that developed states honour their finance and technology transfer commitments. Accordingly, this article posits that strong accountability mechanisms are required to transform opportunities for procedural differentiation in the Paris Agreement into a robust framework for procedural regard for the interests of developing states.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Subject Prospects for renewable energy to end-2017. Significance On June 1, US President Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Later that week, the US Energy Information Administration revealed in a report that renewables set a record of generating 10% of the country’s electric power in the month of March, highlighting that renewable energy has strong momentum that should carry it through shorter term policy fluctuations.


Subject The Paris Agreement and US withdrawal. Significance President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change on June 1, prompting criticism from around the world. While current pledges are unlikely to change and the agreement will not see flight or withdrawal by other countries, US withdrawal imperils the ability of the agreement’s structure to accelerate climate action to a scale necessary to meet its objective of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees centigrade by 2100. Impacts The US private sector and sub-national polities will increase their climate action, though the loss of federal support will still be felt. A future US administration could re-enter the agreement, but substantial momentum will be lost diplomatically in the intervening years. Calls for greater adaptation -- rather than mitigation -- funds from climate-vulnerable states will grow more strident.


Subject The Paris climate agreement. Significance The Paris agreement is the first major international pact to combat climate change since the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. If implemented, the pact envisions robust national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the adverse effects of global warming, with significant political, economic, social and sectoral implications. Impacts Paris accord transparency measures will facilitate carbon divestment campaigns in the West. Aviation and shipping emissions are likely to be addressed in a future Paris accord review conference. Migration from climate change-vulnerable states will reopen the legal issue of internationally recognised 'climate refugee' status.


Subject Prospects for renewable energy in 2017. Significance The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies as well as the largest carbon emitters, announced their ratification of the Paris Agreement in September. Earlier this year, prices for renewable energy in select regions set historic lows below fossil-fired plants. Renewable energy seems to have passed the tipping point towards gradual adoption as the primary source of electric power while also hopefully preventing catastrophic climate change.


Significance The Paris Agreement will enter into force on November 4, ahead of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) annual Conference of Parties (COP22) meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, which begins the following week. The two thresholds for entry into force -- more than 55 countries ratifying, accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions -- were met in early October. Impacts Activist states will continue to advance Paris-complementary measures in non-UNFCCC settings. The Paris Agreement's entry into force means that a signatory government can only withdraw in four years' time. However, a national leader willing to bear the diplomatic fallout could nevertheless undermine the pact through inaction and backsliding. The natural gas sector is a likely beneficiary of incremental international emissions reduction efforts.


Subject China's climate change policy after US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Significance Beijing is seen as a potential global leader on climate change following US President Donald Trump’s June 2 announcement that Washington will pull out from Paris Agreement. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, has already won applause simply by promising to honour existing commitment to the international climate accord. Impacts China prefers to aid developing countries through its South-South fund, so it is unlikely to contribute to the Green Climate Fund. Concerns over competitiveness, especially in export industries, will weaken the national carbon trading scheme due to launch this year. China will negotiate energy sector deals with the United States on economic criteria rather than environmental or climate impacts.


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