Police activity in Tunisia may hinder transition

Subject Tunisia's police service. Significance Elements of the state security sector have been acting autonomously from the state since the Arab uprisings. The threat of terrorism continues to facilitate this trajectory, and parliamentary and presidential elections planned for 2019 could bring the issue into sharp focus. Impacts Increased terrorist attacks may prompt the government to allow the police greater leeway when investigating suspects. Victims of police mistreatment are unlikely to secure justice. Increased terrorist attacks may lead to legislation to strengthen the security forces’ ability to avoid transparency.

Significance The approval of the deal aligns parliament with the government against the judiciary. After a series of legal challenges, the Supreme Administrative Court ruled in January that the agreement was void. The case has been referred to the Supreme Constitutional Court, which has not yet ruled on the issue. The islands’ transfer has exposed a rift between Sisi and senior judges and threatens the latter's autonomy. Impacts State security forces will be prepared to deal with any protests against the islands deal. There may be small, isolated demonstrations, which police will almost certainly crush before they develop momentum. Implementation of the deal will consolidate Sisi’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. Sisi is also showing some frustration with the religious establishment, which has so far maintained its relative autonomy.


Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.


Significance Manama is gradually rolling back some of the reforms to limit the power of the security forces that were put in place after the post-2011 Arab uprisings. The government has been emboldened by Saudi backing and by its security alliance with key Western powers. The new US administration’s more confrontational policy towards Iran’s regional role, which has been echoed by the UK government, could strengthen that alliance. Impacts The strategic importance to Washington of its military presence in Bahrain will rise as tensions with Iran increase. Spillover from US and Saudi confrontations with Iran in Yemen or Gulf shipping lanes could affect Bahrain’s internal stability. Iranian-linked Shia militant groups such as Saraya al-Ashtar or Saraya al-Mukhtar may escalate hostilities. The US and UK governments will seek to increase base security, but could also quietly pressure Manama to make concessions to the Shia.


2020 ◽  
pp. 002234332091308
Author(s):  
Erica De Bruin

How rulers organize and use their security forces is thought to have important implications for regime survival, repression, and military effectiveness. While a number of studies provide insight into the coercive institutions of individual states, efforts to understand systematic patterns have been hampered by a lack of reliable data on state security forces that can be compared across states and within them over time. This article presents the State Security Forces (SSF) dataset, which includes 375 security forces in 110 countries, 1960–2010. It tracks how each force is commanded, staffed, equipped, and deployed, as well as the number of security forces and potential counterweights in each state’s security sector as a whole. After illustrating how the SSF dataset differs from related ones and presenting descriptive trends, the article shows how it can be used to deepen our understanding of coup-proofing and strategic substitution, and identifies additional research uses of the dataset.


Subject Rising instability in Burkina Faso Significance After two years in office, President Roch Marc Christian Kabore’s government is facing a wave of strikes, student protests and demonstrations by disgruntled local communities. This unrest comes as the Burkinabe security forces struggle to contain salafi-jihadist insurgents in the north amid public criticisms of poor government leadership. Kabore's administration has stated that a recent cabinet reshuffle will refocus energies on the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES). However, growing public discontent is emboldening the previously weak opposition. Impacts Growing civil unrest could divert funding and resources from the northern provinces most vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The government will try to avoid clamping down on protests for fear of aiding the opposition further. If conducted fairly, long-delayed trials of former regime leaders could increase the government’s popularity.


2008 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell Zhira

The Zimbabwean slate waged a sustained terror campaign in the southern and western parts of the country from 1982 to 1987. An estimated twenty thousand men, women, and children died during the campaign. Most victims were murdered by state security forces, and others succumbed to conditions of disease and deprivation. The origins, nature, and impact of this conflict are the subject of considerable contention, particularly between analysts, human rights activists, and the government of President Robert Mugabe. Official inquiries into the conduct of the state and its agents have had difficulty gaining access to relevant records, and the government has repeatedly denounced the findings of independent investigations as slanderous. The terror operation waged in Matebeleland and the Midlands provinces can be used as evidence to argue that the government of President Mugabe from early on in its rule developed a tradition of using violence and intolerance as a tool for consolidating political power.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Javier Eiroa Escalada ◽  
Luis Toribio Castro

Las banderas ya no tienen finalidad táctica, pero como símbolo de la nación, representan los valores superiores expresados en la Constitución de 1978.A diferencia de las Fuerzas Armadas, donde las banderas se mantienen como parte de las tradiciones, y aportan gran brillantez a los actos militares, en la literatura española existen pocos estudios relativos a la bandera en el ámbito de las fuerzas y cuerpos de seguridad del Estado.Tras un breve repaso a la normativa vigente en el ámbito de la Vexilología, este trabajo aborda el procedimiento para la concesión del derecho de uso de la enseña Nacional a distintas unidades de las fuerzas y cuerpos de seguridad de ámbito estatal, así como sus modalidades, uso y colocación en actos oficiales, honores y protocolo.Finalmente, se analizan las peculiaridades del ceremonial en el acto de entrega de la bandera, como distinción que se otorga en reconocimiento a la labor que desarrollan como garantes de las libertades públicas y de la seguridad ciudadana, considerando la distinta naturaleza -militar y civil- de ambos cuerpos de seguridad. _________________ The flags are no longer tactical, but as a symbol of the nation, they represent the higher values expressed in the Spanish Constitution of 1978.The Army has kept flags as part of the traditions, and provide great brilliance to the military acts. Instead, in Spanish literature there are few studies about the flag in the State Security Forces.After a brief review of current legislation in Vexillology, this paper deals with the procedure for bestowal of the use the National Flag to different units of the National Security Forces, as well as their modalities, use and placement in official events, honours and protocol.Finally, we analyze the peculiarities of ceremonial in the Act of delivery of the flag, as a distinction that is given in recognition of the work they perform as guarantors of citizen freedoms and public safety, considering the different nature - military and civil- of both security Forces.


Significance There is broad consensus that security sector reform is necessary, but lingering concern that the government lacks a coherent plan, and will end up being distracted by other issues. Impacts The economic crisis resulting from the debt crisis will continue to put the government under severe fiscal pressure. Small amounts of gas should begin to be exported in 2022, but uncertainty over the timelines for larger projects will persist. Mozambique’s relations with neighbours should continue to improve over the immediate term.


Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.


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