Egypt will struggle to service high-interest loans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Budget Analysis

Subject Budget analysis. Significance On June 30, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi approved Egypt's budget for the 2019/20 fiscal year (FY), which started on July 1. The budget assumes 6.0% GDP growth and a 7.2% deficit, compared to 5.6% growth and an 8.4% deficit for the previous fiscal year. However, these numbers are distorted through a number of mechanisms. Impacts Investors in the short-to-medium term will continue to reap high profits from Egypt's government bonds. Egypt is steadily accumulating debt, but the government's fiscal policy suggests plans to stabilise this. The private sector will find it ever more difficult to compete with military-led enterprises, which enjoy special privileges. The military's role in the economy is a subject of speculation, but is thought to be growing. Military spending does not factor into public expenditure, casting doubt on the accuracy of the state budget.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

scholarly journals PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT IN INDONESIA:

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-224
Author(s):  
Aan Jaelani
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Central Government ◽  
General Interest ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Public Expenditure Management ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This paper discusses the management of public expenditures in Indonesia in State Budget 2017. The data collected from fiscal policy documents, especially about government spending plans in 2017, and then be reviewed by policy analysis, the theory of public expenditures, and the theory of public goods, and compared with the theory of public expenditure in Islamic economics. Public expenditure management in Indonesia has implemented a distribution system that divided public expenditure for central government expenditures, transfers to the regions, and the village fund. In terms of fiscal policy, public expenditure priorities to support the achievement of sustainable economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and the reduction of gaps in the welfare of the whole community. In Islamic economics, public expenditure is used to meet the needs of the community based on the principles of general interest derived from the sharia. Public expenditure on Indonesia’s government as an effective tool to divert economic resources and increase the income of society as a whole, and focused on the embodiment of the people’s welfare.

CREDIT CYCLES IN COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION — DO THEY EXIST? DO THEY MATTER?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050001
Author(s):  
LEILA AGHABARARI ◽  
AHMED ROSTOM
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Credit Cycles

This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Curbing debt while targeting growth will test China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Equipment Manufacturing ◽  
Automobile Sales ◽  
Manufacturing Growth

Significance Modest progress is underway in rebalancing towards more consumption and less reliance on exports and investment. GDP growth is on target, helped by buoyant housing and automobile sales. Many of these have been financed by debt though, adding to concerns that prioritising GDP growth has left the economy too reliant on credit. The debt burden is a concern, particularly corporate debt. Impacts The renminbi is at a six-year low and higher US rates could weaken it further, spooking markets. Foreign reserves are at a five-year low; while import cover is still strong, eroding macro fundamentals are a concern. Strong high-tech and equipment manufacturing growth must be built upon to develop a larger and more sophisticated private sector. The focus on growth targets set in 2010 risks debt resolution costs rising as they are deferred.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

India’s central bank will be more amenable to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Consecutive Term ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Bad Debt ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Subject RBI under new governorship. Significance Shaktikanta Das was last month appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor after Urjit Patel resigned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had for several months clashed with the RBI over how to foster economic growth. The general election is likely in April or May, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough fight to win a second consecutive term. Impacts In election campaigning, Modi will emphasise India’s mostly robust quarterly GDP growth figures during his term. Indian banks’ level of bad debt could decrease by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2019. India will likely widen its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 (3.3% of GDP) ahead of the 2019/20 budget.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

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