Prospects for Iraq in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Concessions

Subject Prospects for Iraq in 2020 Significance Current protests will eventually peak and decline, following government concessions. Whether Iraq experiences a change of prime minister in late 2019 or new waves of repression, the same formula of intra-Shia fragmentation will deadlock national politics in 2020.

Fidesz’s hold on power in Hungary will be unchallenged

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Minority Rights ◽  
Social Attitudes ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Conservative Values ◽  
Open Markets

Subject Fidesz’s electoral support. Significance A coherent ideology of radical nationalism, social-conservative values and resistance to such progressive liberal values as ethnic and sexual minority rights, pro-choice movements, multiculturalism, secularism and open markets appeals to many voters, accords with prevailing social attitudes and supports ruling Fidesz’s re-engineering of the democratic checks and balances installed after 1989. It would not be in the interest of Prime Minister Viktor Orban to undo this and re-establish independent institutions. Impacts Fidesz will engage with like-minded movements and intellectuals across Europe and beyond. It will continue to welcome Chinese investment and improve relations with Russia. Opposition-supporting young urbanites are unlikely to break into national politics, stuck in their own bubble of like-minded radicals. A pro-natalist policy will encourage families to produce more ‘true Hungarians’.

India’s Congress may yet revive its fortunes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
State Level ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Congress has struggled to maintain unity at state level as well as nationally. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains popular, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government faces a tough challenge in spurring recovery from the economic fallout of COVID-19. Impacts Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Sonia’s daughter, will play a greater role in national politics, even if she does not become the party’s next leader. Congress may struggle to avoid further party splits in certain states. The new Congress leader will aim to prompt greater scrutiny of Modi’s track record regarding job creation.

South-east Asian judicial politicisation may grow

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject The implications of judicial politicisation in South-east Asia. Significance A Malaysian court on February 10 upheld Pakatan Rakyat opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy conviction. This has widely been interpreted as being politically motivated, although Malaysia's government has denied this. Such cases ignite public calls across South-east Asia for the independence of judiciaries, which have become deeply involved in national politics. Impacts Lese majeste and corruption cases will increase as the Thai junta suppresses former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's allies. Aquino could pursue constitutional changes to limit the judiciary's power. Elite polarisation after 2014's presidential election will test the Indonesian Constitutional Court's independence. Increasingly, social media will be used for political dissent, which governments will resist.

Australia budget keeps defence spending commitments

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Defence Expenditure ◽  
Conducive Environment ◽  
Made In

Significance With an election due soon, the governing Liberal-National Coalition’s pledge to ring-fence the defence spending commitments made in 2016 was under some pressure. However, defence spending in fiscal year 2021/22 will grow by over 4% in real terms and stay above the symbolic level of 2% of GDP. Impacts Growing popular and bipartisan concern with Chinese aggression is a conducive environment for increased defence spending. Low interest rates and a stronger Australian dollar are also supporting sustained levels of defence expenditure. Washington may increase pressure on Australia to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Major business groups are concerned that increased criticism of China in national politics will produce yet more punitive backlash.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

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