Economic woes to mark succession preparation in Cuba

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Cuban economy. Significance Less than three months before President Raul Castro is due to step down from the state leadership, Cuba’s economy is in decline and its reform process has stalled. Castro’s heir apparent, Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, is keeping a low profile and promising continuity. An emerging independent media is causing concern in government circles but has not yet led to a crackdown. Impacts The economic downturn will strain society but an outburst of social unrest remains unlikely for now. As US pressure and domestic tensions rise, Havana will strive for cohesion, even if this stalls economic reform. Trump's confrontational politics force Havana to seek foreign investment elsewhere and to maintain good relations with the EU and Canada.

Cuban vice-president looks set for top job

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Private Business ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Generational Shift

Significance The 57-year-old heir apparent -- Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel -- was born after the 1959 revolution and represents a symbolic generational shift. However, Castro’s continued leadership of the Communist Party should minimise the uncertainty of leadership change and maintain a level of political continuity. Regime stalwarts have blocked Castro’s once ambitious reform agenda, leaving his successor little room for manoeuvre. Impacts Increased foreign investment is unlikely to compensate for the stagnating economy and the restrictions on private business. The economic downturn will increasingly generate social tensions and pressure for reform. Tougher US migration restrictions remove a pressure valve for social discontent in Cuba, exacerbating the risk that tensions will build.

South Sudan faces a bleak development outlook

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Development Outlook

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

Sudan's economic reform will prove challenging

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Corruption ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Bringing tangible improvements to the economy will be a major challenge for Sudan’s new transitional government. Economic hardship and anger over perceived government corruption were recurring causes of protests over recent years and could be again. Impacts The government will publicise its efforts to stabilise prices, although actually achieving this may prove elusive. Efforts to secure removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism will be a major focus, but this process will take time. Delisting would be welcomed by businesses and investors, and would boost debt relief prospects, but will not resolve underlying challenges. Significant new foreign investment will depend on the government’s performance, but fresh injections of international aid can be expected.

New Turkish Cypriot leader is chance for settlement

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Turkish Cypriot ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu

Significance Reunion of the island is now an option, for the first time since the Turkish invasion of 1974. There is strong international support, but designing a deal acceptable to both sides may be more difficult than some politicians and public opinion on both sides suppose. Tough choices and sophisticated compromises will be necessary in the next few months and may not be forthcoming. Yet among both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, there are expectations that a settlement could revitalise the island, where both sides' economies are stagnating. Impacts Agreement would ease decades-old tensions between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, benefiting NATO and the EU. However, a settlement would not significantly unblock the path of Turkey's EU accession bid. Cyprus would become a more appealing destination for foreign investment and tourism. With left-wing politicians on both sides deciding the deal, NATO and US interests would have to be safeguarded during talks. Turkey must decide how to respond to the unwinding of a four decades-old foreign policy.

Congress will oppose Modi policy for political revival

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Sector ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Liberal Reform ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Bihar State

Subject Congress challenges. Significance Defeats in the 2014 general elections and a series of regional elections have left the Congress in disarray. On April 10, a crucial meeting of the central All India Congress Committee (AICC) will attempt to set a course for recovery. At issue is the leadership of the long-standing Nehru-Gandhi family, now personified by Rahul Gandhi, son of party president Sonia Gandhi and the Congress's vice-president. Impacts The Congress will oppose liberal reform in sensitive sectors such as land and retail, but endorse low-profile financial sector reforms. Continuing controversy over land acquisition will delay infrastructure projects. The BJP could lose Bihar state elections in December if all opposition parties join forces.

New Iranian cabinet signals continuity, not reform

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type

Significance The president, who was re-elected in May for a second four-year term, on August 8 announced his new cabinet for parliamentary confirmation. Half the 18 ministers are holdovers from Rouhani’s first term, including the internationally astute foreign and oil ministers. There are nine new nominees, who take the defence and justice portfolios, among others. Impacts The proposed cabinet is likely to focus on economic reform, foreign investment and job creation. Despite fiery rhetoric, Tehran will prioritise preservation of the nuclear agreement. Domestic factional pressures will constrain Rouhani’s ability to propose radical policy changes.

Domestic demand will drive Belgium’s GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Government ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Government Deficit

Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.

Alliances may determine Colombia’s 2018 election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Campaigning ◽  
The Media ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Congressional Representatives

Significance President Juan Manuel Santos accepted Pinzon’s resignation last week, reportedly telling the media that he wished to step down “before being disqualified” from running -- May 24 is the cut-off date for public officials to resign if they wish to run in the 2018 election. While former Vice-President German Vargas Lleras had been considered a favourite for the presidency, a recent slip in his poll ratings has left the election without a clear front runner. Santos is ineligible to stand for re-election and the parties of his governing coalition, and the opposition Democratic Centre (CD) party, are in disagreement over candidate selection. Impacts Political campaigning will slow the pace of legislation, as congressional representatives shift focus to re-election efforts. The new government may become embroiled in disputes with local authorities, newly empowered under the FARC peace deal. The FARC’s political party will likely exert little influence over national policymaking during the next congressional term.

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